Teofimo Lopez and Shakur Stevenson meet at Madison Square Garden with the WBO super lightweight title on the line, setting up one of the most technical matchups in the division. This betting preview breaks down the styles, resumes, and key angles that shape the fight prediction.
Teofimo Lopez (22-1, 13 KOs) vs. Shakur Stevenson (24-0, 11 KOs)
When: Saturday, January 31, 2026
Where: Madison Square Garden, New York City, New York
TV: DAZN
Weight Class: WBO Super Lightweight Championship: 12 Rounds
Betting Odds: Teofimo Lopez (+250), Shakur Stevenson (-350)—Odds by Bovada
Fight Analysis:
Teofimo Lopez defends his WBO 140-pound belt against unbeaten former three-division champion Shakur Stevenson at Madison Square Garden on January 31. It’s really one of the better fights in this weight class in some time, and there have been some good ones at 140 pounds. Stevenson looks for a title in his fourth weight class and is coming off a nice July win over William Zepeda in defense of his lightweight belt. Lopez, meanwhile, is coming off a May win over previously-undefeated Arnold Barboza in defense of the title that will be up for grabs in this fight.
Physically, these men have a lot in common, both standing 5’8” with reaches of 68 inches. They are both 28. They also hail from close to each other, with Stevenson from Newark and Lopez enjoying some hometown advantage with this being at MSG and him being from Brooklyn. They are also both advanced studies in the pugilistic arts, highly complex and sophisticated fighters who are very likely to be each other’s toughest opponents they have faced in their respective careers.
Lopez, while an underdog, has the more impressive ledger. He has the one loss, that being a nip-and-tuck battle that could have gone either way in an upset decision loss to George Kambosos in 2021. Putting that aside, he has wins over Vasiliy Lomachenko and Josh Taylor, two title-winning wins of utmost quality. Stevenson, meanwhile, is unbeaten and has three world titles to his name, but other than a win over a post-peak Oscar Valdez, there isn’t a ton of quality bursting from that list of wins. In fact, you could say it’s been a painfully slow burn, with Stevenson a hotshot amateur who won the silver medal at the 2016 Olympics. For it to be 2026 for him to take his first peek over the edge of the cliff is a bit odd, though less so than it used to be.
Stevenson is indeed going to be difficult to beat. He’s a highly resourceful master boxer of the highest order. His skills across the board are top of the line, with great defense and game-changing speed. In addition, he puts total stock into winning, not in doing other things that might raise his profile or entertainment value at the expense of him simply winning the fight. He’ll take a guy out here and there, but otherwise, he can be cautious and a bit measured for some people’s tastes. Those betting on him, however, have to appreciate his tactical approach.
Lopez is also more brains than brawn, especially at this level. At one point boasting a high KO percentage, Lopez has opted more for a scientific approach when he reached the upper reaches of the sport’s best. His first big fight showed him in great form, unseating a master boxer in Lomachenko in a big upset. Some may have blown him off after losing to Kambosos, but he got his act together and has been on a great run these last two years. And him beating Lomachenko and Taylor to win the two titles he has to his credit is just so far beyond what Stevenson has accomplished.
On one hand, Lopez is the bigger man. Stevenson is rising in weight to face him. Lopez has been near this weight his whole career, even into the amateurs. Stevenson won a medal at bantamweight and his first title at featherweight, so he’s now facing more robust fighters and not just any fighter, but the best at 140 pounds. For some reason, however, maybe it’s Lopez whose lack of power might end up costing him. If he’s being outboxed, it might be asking a lot for that power to surface against a cautious defensive marvel like Stevenson. Not that he doesn’t have options, but if picking against Stevenson, you’d prefer someone who is more bankable from a power standpoint. Since moving up in class and especially since coming up to 140, his power is still present, just not as fight-changing as it once was.
This is not meant to impugn Lopez. He is athletic. He has speed and good fast-twitch muscles. He can showcase explosiveness, and while he might not have the KOs at this level, he’s both the stronger man and the harder hitter between the two. He is more-acclimated to the weight, and his biggest wins coming when he was an underdog, says something about his spirit. I think from a value standpoint, a position on him is warranted.
What Stevenson lacks in betting value, he makes up for in other ways. At root, when someone is both as fast and technical as Stevenson is, combined with a persona that eschews risk for effectiveness, that is a hard fighter to beat in his prime. Lopez has been in with better fighters and beaten very good boxers, but he has also been troubled by boxers. And when you take a boxer like Stevenson with his ring IQ and innate skill in steering a fight into the context in which he can most thrive, I think it sets up for a difficult matchup for Lopez. And I realize I’m running the risk of overlooking Lopez’s talents to some extent. Some of his abilities are so hard to describe that it can be easy to overlook—his multi-dimensionality, his angles, the suddenness of his attack, and his counter-punching skill. I just think that Stevenson is going to be a little better, and I’m betting on him to win the fight.
My Prediction to Win the Fight:
I’m betting on Shakur Stevenson to win at -350 betting odds. I also like the Bovada line on Stevenson winning by decision at -195. I think his speed, ring IQ, and ability to stick to the safest course of action are going to make him a tough man to beat on the 31st.
