Georgia enters this Top-25 showdown as a 2.5-point home favorite, but the smart money is fixated on the pace of play at Stegeman Coliseum. Bash looks at the KenPom splits and asks if Georgia’s #3-ranked tempo can trigger a point spread cover against an Arkansas squad that ranks in the top 10 for finishing at the rim.
The Setup: Arkansas at Georgia
Georgia’s laying 2.5 at home against Arkansas, and this line screams respect for both teams. The Bulldogs are 8-1 and leading the nation in scoring at 99.9 points per game, while the Razorbacks sit at 7-2 with one of the best turnover margins in college basketball. When you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this sets up as a legitimate SEC heavyweight clash with Georgia holding a meaningful edge where it matters most.
Georgia’s adjusted net efficiency sits at 24.7, ranking 8th nationally. Arkansas checks in at 18.5, good for 25th. That seven-point gap in adjusted efficiency translates almost perfectly to this 2.5-point spread when you factor in home court advantage. The market nailed this number, and now we need to figure out which side of it deserves our money in what should be an absolute track meet in Athens.
Both teams play fast—Georgia ranks 13th in tempo at 75.2 possessions per game, Arkansas sits 49th at 72.7—and both teams can absolutely light up the scoreboard. But one team protects the rim significantly better, and that’s going to be the difference when the game tightens up.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: Arkansas (7-2) at Georgia (8-1)
Date: January 17, 2026
Time: 4:00 PM ET
Venue: Stegeman Coliseum, Athens, GA
Conference: SEC
Spread: Georgia -2.5
Total: 181.5 / 182.5
Moneyline: Georgia -125, Arkansas +105
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
Let’s start with the fundamentals. Georgia’s adjusted offensive efficiency ranks 15th nationally at 121.9, paired with a 21st-ranked adjusted defense at 97.2. Arkansas counters with the 31st-ranked adjusted offense at 118.1 and 39th-ranked adjusted defense at 99.6. That’s a 3.8-point edge in adjusted offensive efficiency for Georgia and a 2.4-point edge in adjusted defensive efficiency—roughly six points of separation in a neutral environment.
Home court in college basketball typically adds 3-4 points, which would put Georgia somewhere in the 9-10 point range if we’re being purely mathematical about it. So why is this line only 2.5? The market is respecting Arkansas’s elite ball security. The Razorbacks rank 3rd nationally in turnover ratio at 0.1, committing just 9.4 turnovers per game. That’s 16th-best in the country, and it’s a legitimate weapon against Georgia’s aggressive defense.
Georgia forces 11.1 steals per game, ranking 7th nationally, and their length generates 8.7 blocks per game—first in the entire country. But Arkansas doesn’t beat themselves. They take care of the basketball better than almost anyone, which should limit Georgia’s transition opportunities and keep this game closer than the efficiency gap suggests it should be.
The total sitting at 181.5/182.5 makes complete sense when you combine Georgia’s nation-leading 99.9 points per game with Arkansas’s 87.6 and factor in the tempo. Both teams want to run, both teams can score, and neither defense is elite enough to slow this game down significantly.
Arkansas Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
Arkansas’s calling card is ball security and perimeter defense. That 0.1 turnover ratio ranks 3rd nationally, and they’re holding opponents to just 27.8% from three-point range—29th-best in the country. When you combine elite ball security with the ability to take away the three-point line, you’ve got a formula for staying in games against superior opponents.
Darius Acuff Jr. leads the way at 17.4 points and 5.4 assists per game, ranking 46th nationally in assists. Meleek Thomas adds 16.9 points, and this backcourt has the experience to handle Georgia’s pressure. The Razorbacks’ 78.3% free throw shooting ranks 14th nationally, which matters late in close games.
The concern? Arkansas ranks 294th in offensive rebounding percentage at just 28.0%, and they’re going up against a Georgia team that ranks 7th nationally in total rebounding at 44.6 boards per game. Arkansas is going to get one shot per possession, and against Georgia’s elite rim protection, that’s a problem. The Razorbacks also rank just 109th in effective field goal percentage at 54.2%, which suggests they’re not as efficient in the halfcourt as their overall offensive rating indicates.
Georgia Breakdown: The Counterpoint
Georgia is an absolute problem. They lead the nation in scoring at 99.9 points per game, rank 1st in blocks at 8.7 per game, and sit 7th in rebounding at 44.6 boards per contest. Their adjusted net efficiency of 24.7 ranks 8th nationally, and they’re doing it with elite rim protection and controlled chaos on defense.
Jeremiah Wilkinson and Blue Cain form a dynamic backcourt, combining for 32.5 points per game. But the real story is Georgia’s defensive length and activity. They hold opponents to 38.7% shooting overall—31st in the country—and their 8.7 blocks per game create an absolute no-fly zone around the rim.
Georgia’s weakness is the same as Arkansas’s strength: turnovers. The Bulldogs cough it up 11.3 times per game, ranking 116th nationally. Against Arkansas’s disciplined defense that forces opponents into tough halfcourt possessions, those turnovers could swing possessions. Georgia also shoots just 30.8% from three, ranking 291st nationally. They’re relying heavily on interior scoring and transition buckets, which means they need to control the glass and force turnovers to maximize their offensive efficiency.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game comes down to three factors: rim protection, rebounding, and pace control. Georgia’s 8.7 blocks per game against Arkansas’s poor offensive rebounding percentage creates a massive advantage for the home team. Arkansas is going to struggle to generate second-chance opportunities, and when Georgia’s length is contesting shots at the rim, the Razorbacks need to hit perimeter shots. Their 35.5% three-point shooting isn’t terrible, but it’s not good enough to consistently beat elite rim protection.
Arkansas’s best path to victory is slowing this game down and limiting Georgia’s transition opportunities. The Razorbacks’ elite ball security should help, but Georgia’s 11.1 steals per game and overall defensive activity make that difficult. Georgia scores 207 points off turnovers through nine games compared to Arkansas’s 140—that’s a 67-point difference, or roughly 7.5 points per game.
The pace factor favors Georgia. They play faster, they score more in transition with 258 fast break points compared to Arkansas’s 200, and they control the glass. When you combine superior rebounding, elite rim protection, and a faster pace at home, Georgia has every structural advantage in this matchup. Arkansas’s ball security keeps them competitive, but it’s not enough to overcome the efficiency gap and home court.
Bash’s Best Bet
Georgia -2.5
I’m laying the short number with the Bulldogs at home. The efficiency gap is real, the rebounding advantage is massive, and Georgia’s rim protection neutralizes Arkansas’s biggest offensive strength. The Razorbacks take care of the basketball, but they’re not generating second-chance points against this length, and their offensive efficiency drops significantly in halfcourt settings.
Georgia’s 8th-ranked adjusted net efficiency against Arkansas’s 25th-ranked mark tells me this line should be closer to 4-5 points. The market is giving Arkansas credit for ball security, and rightfully so, but it’s not enough. Georgia wins this game by 6-8 points, and we’re getting a gift at 2.5. Take the Bulldogs and don’t overthink it.
