Kansas enters this rare Friday night tilt as a 7.5-point favorite, and the advanced metrics suggest the market might be undervaluing the Jayhawks’ home dominance. Bash looks at the 25-point gap in defensive efficiency and asks if Baylor’s high-octane offense can actually secure a point spread cover against the nation’s 8th-ranked defense.
The Setup: Baylor at Kansas
Kansas is laying 7.5 points at Allen Fieldhouse against Baylor, and if you’re scratching your head wondering why this number isn’t bigger, you’re not alone. The Jayhawks are playing elite defense, sitting 8th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency at 95.1 according to collegebasketballdata.com. Meanwhile, Baylor’s defense ranks 263rd in that same metric at 111.6. That’s a chasm. But here’s the thing—this spread is telling you the market respects Baylor’s offensive firepower (17th in adjusted offensive efficiency at 121.4) and understands that Kansas isn’t exactly lighting up scoreboards this season. The Jayhawks rank just 63rd in adjusted offensive efficiency at 115.2. So we’ve got a classic Big 12 collision: Kansas wants to grind you into dust defensively, while Baylor wants to push tempo and create offensive chaos. The question isn’t whether Kansas is the better team—they clearly are with a 20.0 adjusted net efficiency compared to Baylor’s 9.7. The question is whether 7.5 points accurately captures that gap when styles clash this dramatically.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: Baylor @ Kansas
Date: January 16, 2026
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Venue: Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence, KS
Bovada:
Point Spread: Kansas -7.5
Over/Under: 155
Moneyline: Kansas -360, Baylor +280
DraftKings:
Point Spread: Kansas -7.5
Over/Under: 155.5
Moneyline: Kansas -250, Baylor +205
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
Let’s talk tempo first, because that’s where this game gets interesting. Kansas plays at a 66.9 pace (244th nationally), while Baylor pushes it at 71.5 (89th). That’s not a massive gap, but it matters when you consider what each team wants to accomplish. The Jayhawks thrive in the halfcourt, using their suffocating defense—they hold opponents to just 37.5% from the field (16th) and an absurd 24.9% from three (6th nationally)—to create advantages. Baylor wants possessions, wants second chances (they rank 4th in offensive rebounding percentage at 39.2%), and wants to score before Kansas can set that defense.
The 7.5-point spread essentially says Kansas wins this game by a possession or two in a slower-paced environment. When you run the efficiency numbers through expected possession counts, you’d project Kansas to win by somewhere around 8-10 points based purely on the adjusted metrics. So the market is right in the ballpark. What gives me pause is Baylor’s recent form—they’re 1-3 in their last four games with losses to Houston, Iowa State, and TCU. That TCU loss on the road was particularly ugly, a 63-69 defeat where the Bears couldn’t crack 70 points. Kansas, meanwhile, just dominated Iowa State 84-63 at home. The Jayhawks know how to protect Allen Fieldhouse, and Baylor looks vulnerable right now.
Baylor Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
Let’s give credit where it’s due—Baylor can flat-out score. They’re putting up 87.8 points per game (38th nationally) with an offensive rating of 123.2 (55th). Cameron Carr is the engine, dropping 21.8 points per game (6th in the nation), and Tounde Yessoufou provides a secondary punch at 17.8 per night. The Bears shoot 47.1% from the field and 35.1% from three, which are solid but not spectacular marks.
Where Baylor creates real problems is on the offensive glass. That 39.2% offensive rebounding rate (4th nationally) means they’re getting 1.4 to 1.5 extra possessions per game compared to an average team. Against a Kansas squad that ranks 355th in offensive rebounding percentage at just 24.0%, this becomes a potential edge. If Baylor can crash the glass and create second-chance opportunities, they can offset Kansas’s defensive excellence to some degree.
The problem? Baylor’s defense is a sieve. Allowing 81.0 points per game (325th) and posting a defensive rating of 112.9 (289th) are catastrophic numbers. Opponents are shooting 46.4% against them (310th). You can’t win consistently in the Big 12 when you’re giving up those kinds of efficiency numbers.
Kansas Breakdown: The Counterpoint
Kansas wins with defense, period. That 95.1 adjusted defensive efficiency (8th nationally) isn’t a fluke—they’re holding teams to 63.7 points per game (16th) and creating absolute misery on the perimeter. The 24.9% opponent three-point percentage is elite, and they’re blocking 6.4 shots per game (6th nationally). Flory Bidunga is a rim protector who changes everything defensively, averaging 9.0 rebounds (44th) and providing verticality that Baylor will struggle to navigate.
Offensively, Kansas is more measured. They score just 74.6 points per game (245th) and play at that slow 66.9 pace. Darryn Peterson leads at 20.0 points per game, with Bidunga (14.7) and Tre White (14.3) providing balance. The Jayhawks shoot 75.6% from the free-throw line (60th), which matters in close games. Melvin Council Jr. runs the show at 5.3 assists per game (59th nationally), keeping the offense organized.
The concern is Kansas’s offensive ceiling. That 115.2 adjusted offensive efficiency (63rd) suggests they can struggle to score against quality opponents. They’re not going to blow Baylor off the court with offensive firepower—they need their defense to create the margin.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game comes down to whether Baylor can generate enough offensive possessions to overcome Kansas’s defensive superiority. The Bears need to push tempo, crash the offensive glass, and force Kansas into a track meet. If they can get 70-72 possessions, they’ve got a puncher’s chance because their offensive efficiency is legitimately elite.
Kansas wants 65-67 possessions in a halfcourt grind where they can set their defense, force Baylor into contested jumpers, and eliminate second chances. The Jayhawks will dare Baylor to shoot from three and pack the paint against Carr and Yessoufou’s drives. With Bidunga patrolling the rim and Kansas’s perimeter defenders contesting everything, Baylor’s going to see a lot of difficult looks.
The three-point shooting matchup is critical. Baylor shoots 35.1% from deep while Kansas holds opponents to 24.9%. If the Bears go cold from three—which is entirely possible given Kansas’s defensive prowess—this game could get ugly. Baylor’s 1-3 stretch suggests they’re already struggling to score against quality Big 12 defenses, and Kansas presents the toughest challenge yet.
Allen Fieldhouse is a legitimate factor here. Kansas is 3-1 at home this season, and that building creates an atmosphere that disrupts offensive rhythm. Baylor’s going to feel the pressure, especially if Kansas gets out to an early lead.
Bash’s Best Bet
I’m laying the 7.5 points with Kansas. Look, I understand the hesitation—Baylor’s offensive efficiency is real, and that offensive rebounding edge could keep this closer than the metrics suggest. But Baylor’s defense is so compromised right now that I don’t see how they slow down Kansas enough to stay within a possession. The Bears are allowing 46.4% shooting and giving up 81 points per game. Kansas doesn’t need to be spectacular offensively when Baylor’s going to give them clean looks in the halfcourt.
The recent form matters here. Baylor’s lost three of four, including that head-scratcher at TCU where they managed just 63 points. Kansas just steamrolled Iowa State at home. The Jayhawks know how to win these Big 12 battles at Allen Fieldhouse, and Baylor doesn’t have the defensive chops to make this competitive down the stretch. Give me Kansas by double digits. Kansas -7.5.
