Missouri Valley Conference action heads to the Hulman Center as Bradley looks to extend their four-game winning streak against a disciplined Indiana State squad. Bryan Bash dives into the efficiency metrics and why the Braves’ ball-hawking defense makes them a strong road favorite.
The Setup: Bradley at Indiana State
Bradley’s laying 4.5 points on the road at Indiana State, and honestly, this number feels light to me. I know what you’re thinking – road favorite in a conference game between two 6-4 teams sounds like a coin flip. But here’s the thing: these teams aren’t nearly as similar as their records suggest. When you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, Bradley’s got a legitimate edge on both ends of the floor that makes this spread look like a gift. The Braves check in with an adjusted net efficiency of 4.3 (#125 nationally) compared to Indiana State’s 1.7 (#155), and that gap is telling me this line should be closer to 6 or 7. Let me walk you through why Bradley’s going to control this game at Hulman Center.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: Bradley at Indiana State
Date: December 18, 2025
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Venue: Hulman Center, Terre Haute, IN
DraftKings:
Spread: Bradley -4.5
Total: 147.5
Moneyline: Bradley -185, Indiana State +154
Bovada:
Spread: Bradley -4
Total: 148
Why This Number Makes Sense (Actually, Why It’s Too Low)
The efficiency gap here is more substantial than the spread suggests. According to collegebasketballdata.com, Bradley ranks 61st nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency at 101.9, while Indiana State sits at 80th with a 102.7 mark. That’s not a massive difference, but flip to the offensive side and things get interesting. Bradley’s adjusted offensive efficiency of 106.1 (#203) actually trails Indiana State’s 104.4 (#239) slightly, but the raw offensive ratings tell a different story about how these teams perform in real game situations.
Indiana State’s offensive rating of 118.4 (#89) looks impressive until you realize they’re playing at a glacial pace – just 64.2 possessions per game, ranking 311th nationally. That’s not just slow basketball; it’s a style that artificially inflates efficiency numbers because they’re getting quality looks in a controlled environment. Bradley, meanwhile, operates at 68.7 possessions (#170), which is still deliberate but allows them to put more pressure on opponents over the course of 40 minutes.
Here’s what really seals it for me: Bradley’s defensive rating of 99.6 (#89) compared to Indiana State’s 107.5 (#211). Do that math over 70 possessions, and you’re looking at a potential 5-6 point swing just from defensive execution. The Sycamores are allowing 69.1 points per game (#92), but that’s against slower-paced opponents. When they face a team that can both control tempo AND defend, they struggle to generate enough offense.
Bradley’s Situation
The Braves are riding high after four straight wins, and their defensive identity is legitimate. They rank 28th nationally in steals per game at 9.8, which creates the chaos they need to generate easy baskets. Guard Jaquan Johnson leads the way with 18.2 points per game (#85 nationally), and he’s the engine that makes everything work. Montana Wheeler adds 3.6 assists per game (#240), giving Bradley multiple playmakers who can attack Indiana State’s turnover issues.
Bradley’s three-point shooting at 34.6% (#144) is solid but not spectacular, and that’s actually fine for their style. They’re not reliant on the long ball – they generate 304 points in the paint through their 10 games, showing they can score inside when needed. The concern is their rebounding, ranking 334th nationally at just 32.0 boards per game with an offensive rebound rate of 28.4% (#280). Against Indiana State’s 37.3 rebounds per game (#161), that could be problematic.
But I keep coming back to those defensive numbers because they’re just too extreme to ignore. Holding opponents to 68.3 points per game (#82) while forcing turnovers at an elite rate gives Bradley multiple ways to win this game.
Indiana State’s Situation
The Sycamores have the home court advantage, and they move the ball beautifully – 17.3 assists per game ranks 48th nationally. Xavier Hall is a legitimate distributor at 5.4 assists per game (#50), and Ian Scott provides interior presence with 7.9 rebounds per game (#89). This is a team built on ball movement and patience.
The problem? They’re turnover-prone at 13.7 per game (#287), and their turnover ratio of 0.2 ranks 314th nationally. That’s not just careless – it’s a fundamental issue when facing Bradley’s pressure defense. Indiana State’s 29.3% three-point shooting (#325) is downright ugly, making them one-dimensional offensively. They need to score inside, but they don’t have the athletes to consistently beat Bradley’s defense off the dribble.
Their recent form is concerning too. Yes, they beat Milwaukee 70-68 and dominated Southern Indiana 77-55, but those road losses to Alcorn State (74-81) and Louisiana Tech (73-75) show this team struggles away from their comfort zone. Now they’re facing a Bradley squad that brings the discomfort to them.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game lives and dies on turnovers and pace. Bradley forces 9.8 steals per game while committing just 10.7 turnovers (#70 in turnover ratio). Indiana State coughs it up 13.7 times per game. That’s a three-possession swing right there, and in a game that might only have 66-68 total possessions, those extra opportunities are massive.
The three-point shooting matchup heavily favors Bradley. The Braves shoot 34.6% from deep while Indiana State’s defense allows 30.4% (#89). Meanwhile, Indiana State shoots just 29.3% from three against a Bradley defense that allows 36.0% (#304). Neither team is elite from distance, but Bradley has the clear advantage in this exchange.
Here’s the matchup that seals it for me: Bradley’s ability to defend without fouling (opponents shoot just 68.3 points per game) against Indiana State’s reliance on getting to the line. The Sycamores don’t have the perimeter shooting to keep Bradley honest, which means the Braves can load up inside and force contested shots.
Indiana State’s 118.4 offensive rating looks impressive, but remember – that’s in a controlled, slow environment. Bradley’s going to push the pace just enough to take the Sycamores out of their rhythm without playing into a track meet. At 68.7 possessions compared to Indiana State’s 64.2, Bradley dictates the style here.
My Play
The Pick: Bradley -4.5 (-110) for 2 units
I’ve considered the home court advantage, and the defensive efficiency gap is still too massive to ignore. Bradley’s 61st-ranked adjusted defense against Indiana State’s turnover issues and poor three-point shooting creates a recipe for a comfortable road win. I’m projecting Bradley 73, Indiana State 65 – an 8-point margin that covers comfortably.
The main risk here is if Indiana State slows this game to an absolute crawl and keeps it in the 50s, where variance can swing a possession or two. But Bradley’s shown they can win in multiple styles, evidenced by their 64-60 grinder against Washington State and their 84-55 blowout of Northern Illinois. They’re not one-dimensional.
This line should be 6 or 6.5, and we’re getting it at 4.5. That’s value. Bradley’s defense travels, their backcourt is superior, and they’re peaking at the right time. Lay the points with confidence.
