BYU is rolling, but the United Supermarkets Arena has been a graveyard for Top-25 teams this season. Bash asks if the “revenge” factor for BYU’s early-season dominance can ruin the best bet for a Texas Tech squad that is 3-0 against the Cougars in Big 12 play.
The Setup: BYU at Texas Tech
Texas Tech’s laying 2.5 to 3 points at home against BYU on Saturday night, and this number tells you everything about how the market views these Big 12 heavyweights. The Red Raiders are getting minimal respect for home court, which in Lubbock usually carries more weight than that. But here’s the thing—BYU isn’t just some solid squad rolling through conference play. The Cougars check in at #14 nationally in adjusted net efficiency according to collegebasketballdata.com, with an elite #21 adjusted offense (120.0) paired with a #31 adjusted defense (98.4). Texas Tech sits at #26 in adjusted net (18.4), which is excellent but not quite at BYU’s level. This line is tight because the efficiency gap is real, and we need to figure out if home court and style can bridge it.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: BYU (7-1) at Texas Tech (7-2)
Date: January 17, 2026
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Venue: United Supermarkets Arena, Lubbock, TX
Type: Big 12 Conference Game
DraftKings:
Spread: Texas Tech -2.5
Total: 160.5
Moneyline: Texas Tech -155, BYU +130
Bovada:
Spread: Texas Tech -3
Total: 161
Moneyline: N/A
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
Let’s work through the math here. BYU’s adjusted offensive efficiency sits at 120.0 versus Texas Tech’s adjusted defensive efficiency of 97.4. That’s a 22.6-point advantage for the Cougars’ attack. Flip it around: Texas Tech’s adjusted offense (115.8) against BYU’s adjusted defense (98.4) gives the Red Raiders a 17.4-point edge. Raw efficiency suggests BYU should have the advantage in this matchup, even on the road.
But here’s where tempo becomes the great equalizer. BYU plays at a glacial 60.9 pace (#340 nationally)—this is one of the slowest teams in college basketball. Texas Tech pushes it significantly faster at 70.3 (#125). That’s nearly 10 possessions per game difference, which matters enormously. The Red Raiders want to speed this up, get out in transition with their 36.4% offensive rebounding rate (#23), and create chaos. BYU wants to grind this into a halfcourt slugfest where their #9 offensive rating (139.8) can operate in space.
The market landed on a short number because it’s acknowledging BYU’s efficiency advantage while giving Texas Tech credit for home court and the pace battle. A 2.5 to 3-point spread essentially says this is a coin flip with minimal home edge baked in. That feels light for Lubbock, but it also respects that BYU has been the better team this season.
BYU Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
The Cougars are absolutely rolling with five straight wins, and the offensive firepower is legitimate. AJ Dybantsa is averaging 19.4 points (#49 nationally) and gives them a pro-caliber wing. Richie Saunders matches him at 19.1 points (#53), and Robert Wright III is the engine at point guard with 17.0 points and 6.1 assists (#19). That’s three guys who can create their own shot in halfcourt settings.
What jumps off the page is the shooting efficiency. BYU’s hitting 49.5% from the field (#47) and 37.4% from three (#46), with a 57.0% effective field goal percentage (#42). They’re not just good—they’re elite at shot selection and execution. The 76.1% free throw shooting (#49) means they’ll make you pay in crunch time.
Defensively, they’re holding opponents to 40.5% shooting (#72) and 31.6% from three (#135). The 111.7 defensive rating looks concerning on paper, but that’s pace-adjusted, and against quality competition, they’ve been solid. The concern? 26.7% offensive rebounding rate (#324). They’re not winning the glass battle, which could be problematic against Texas Tech’s physicality.
Texas Tech Breakdown: The Counterpoint
The Red Raiders have the horses to compete here, led by JT Toppin, who’s a monster at 20.8 points (#21) and 11.5 rebounds (#5 nationally). That’s a double-double machine who can dominate the paint. Christian Anderson runs the show with 19.1 points and 7.0 assists (#5), giving them a legitimate floor general who can exploit BYU’s slower pace if he gets into transition.
Here’s where Texas Tech can win this: offensive rebounding. That 36.4% rate (#23) is elite, and against BYU’s #324 defensive rebounding, there’s a massive mismatch. Second-chance points could be the difference in a game that projects to be close throughout. The Red Raiders are averaging 40.3 rebounds per game (#58) compared to BYU’s 39.4 (#84), and Toppin’s presence on the glass is a legitimate weapon.
The concerns are real, though. Texas Tech’s shooting just 44.3% from the field (#235) with a 52.6% effective field goal percentage (#149). That’s significantly worse than BYU’s efficiency. The 67.2% free throw shooting (#291) is borderline problematic in a close game. And while their 97.4 adjusted defensive efficiency (#25) is excellent, they’re facing the #21 adjusted offense in the country.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This comes down to two critical battles: pace and the glass. Texas Tech needs to push tempo and get BYU uncomfortable. The Cougars want to slow this into the 50-possession range where their superior halfcourt execution can shine. Every offensive rebound Texas Tech grabs is gold—it’s an extra possession against a team that’s going to limit total possessions anyway.
The Robert Wright III versus Christian Anderson matchup at point guard is fascinating. Wright’s #19 nationally in assists and rarely turns it over (9.6 turnovers per game, #22). Anderson’s equally dynamic with his #5 assist ranking, but Texas Tech turns it over more (11.0 per game, #86). Ball security matters enormously in a game with limited possessions.
Toppin’s ability to dominate Keba Keita inside is another key. Keita’s averaging 7.1 rebounds (#157), but he’s not a scoring threat at 7.5 points. If Toppin can get him in foul trouble early, BYU’s interior defense becomes vulnerable, and those second-chance opportunities multiply.
The total of 160.5 to 161 feels about right. With BYU’s pace, you’re looking at roughly 65-70 possessions. Both teams can score efficiently enough to get there, but it’s going to require execution in the halfcourt.
Bash’s Best Bet
I’m taking BYU +3 and feeling good about it. The efficiency gap is real, and while I respect what Texas Tech can do on the glass, BYU’s been the better team all season. That #14 adjusted net efficiency versus #26 is a meaningful difference, and the Cougars have the shot-making to win this game outright in Lubbock.
Texas Tech’s going to get their second-chance points, but BYU’s taking care of the ball (#22 in turnovers) and shooting too efficiently to fade at this number. Give me the better team getting points in what projects to be a possession-by-possession battle. If you want to get frisky, the moneyline at +130 has value too. BYU wins this outright more than 43% of the time, and that’s where the number needs to be to justify laying the juice on Texas Tech.
The Pick: BYU +3
