Clemson returns to the upstate for a critical neutral-site battle against the Bearcats. Bryan Bash explores the market psychology and why the line has held steady despite Cincinnati’s recent 37-point blowout win over Alabama State.
The Setup: Cincinnati @ Clemson
Clemson’s laying 6.5 points at home against Cincinnati on Saturday afternoon, and here’s the thing – this spread is telling you a story about two programs heading in completely different directions. The Tigers sit at 7-2 with the 16th-ranked adjusted net efficiency in the country according to collegebasketballdata.com, while the Bearcats limp in at 6-3 with serious offensive issues that aren’t getting better. I’m backing Clemson here, and let me walk you through exactly why this number actually undersells what should happen at Littlejohn Coliseum.
Cincinnati enters this matchup fresh off getting embarrassed 84-65 at Georgia, and that loss exposed everything wrong with Wes Miller’s squad right now. Meanwhile, Clemson just steamrolled Alabama A&M 92-56 and has found their rhythm after those road losses to BYU and Alabama. The efficiency gap here is massive, and when you factor in the pace differential and home court advantage, 6.5 points feels light.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: Cincinnati @ Clemson
Date: December 21, 2025
Time: 3:00 PM ET
Location: Fifth Third Arena, Cincinnati, OH
Spread: Clemson -6.5 (DraftKings) / -6 (Bovada)
Total: 141.5 (DraftKings) / 140.5 (Bovada)
Moneyline: Clemson -230, Cincinnati +190
Why This Number Makes Sense
The collegebasketballdata.com adjusted efficiency numbers tell you everything you need to know about this mismatch. Clemson ranks 18th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency at 121.0, while Cincinnati sits at 291st with a pathetic 101.3 mark. That’s a 19.7-point gap in offensive efficiency – absolutely massive. On the defensive side, Cincinnati does have the better unit at 23rd (97.3) compared to Clemson’s 49th (101.0), but here’s why this line makes sense: you can’t win games if you can’t score.
The adjusted net efficiency gap is 16 full points – Clemson at 20.0 (#16) versus Cincinnati at 4.0 (#128). That’s not a minor difference; that’s the gap between a legitimate top-20 team and a middling squad trying to figure out their identity. When you’ve got a 16-point efficiency advantage and home court, a 6.5-point spread is actually conservative.
Let me break down the tempo factor because it matters here. Cincinnati plays at the 40th-fastest pace nationally (73.1 possessions per game), while Clemson operates at 281st (65.5 possessions). The Tigers are going to slow this game down and force Cincinnati to execute in the halfcourt – exactly where the Bearcats are completely lost right now. In a game with roughly 68-70 possessions, that efficiency gap translates to double-digit scoring advantages when you do the math.
Cincinnati’s Situation
The Bearcats have one elite trait: their defense ranks 11th nationally in defensive rating (89.3) and 27th in opponent field goal percentage (38.4%). They’ve got length with Baba Miller (11.1 rebounds per game, 7th nationally) and shot-blocking presence with 5.6 blocks per game (16th in the country). That defensive foundation is real.
But here’s the problem – Cincinnati’s offense is borderline unwatchable. They rank 318th in offensive rating at 102.9, shoot just 42.4% from the field (303rd), and are absolutely brutal at the free throw line at 63.0% (349th out of 362 teams). That free throw percentage isn’t just bad; it’s catastrophically bad and will cost them in close games. Day Day Thomas leads them at 13.9 points per game, but nobody on this roster scares you as a consistent scoring threat.
The turnover issues are mounting too – 14.3 per game ranks 316th nationally. When you combine poor shooting, terrible free throw shooting, and careless turnovers, you get an offensive rating that ranks in the bottom quarter of Division I basketball. They’ve lost three of their last five, and in those losses, they’ve scored 56, 74, and 65 points. That’s not going to cut it against a disciplined Clemson defense.
Clemson’s Situation
Brad Brownell’s Tigers are humming right now, and the collegebasketballdata.com numbers back up what you see on film. That 18th-ranked adjusted offensive efficiency (121.0) is built on smart basketball – they rank 5th nationally in fewest turnovers per game (8.8) and 3rd in turnover ratio. They don’t beat themselves, and that’s exactly what you want as a home favorite.
Clemson shoots 46.3% from the field (136th) with a 53.2% effective field goal percentage (133rd), and they get to the line effectively with a 74.9% free throw percentage (81st). They’re not elite in any one offensive category, but they’re solid across the board and play within themselves. RJ Godfrey leads a balanced attack at 12.1 points per game, but five different players average between 8-12 points. That balance makes them tough to defend.
The Tigers dominate the glass at 23rd nationally in rebounds per game (42.4) and rank 156th in offensive rebounding percentage (31.7%). Against Cincinnati’s 280th-ranked offensive rebounding percentage (28.4%), Clemson should control the boards and limit second-chance opportunities. That’s a massive edge in a slower-paced game.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game lives and dies on Cincinnati’s ability to score in the halfcourt, and I just don’t see it happening. Clemson’s going to slow the pace down to their preferred 65-66 possessions, take away transition opportunities, and force the Bearcats to execute in structured sets. Cincinnati ranks 291st in adjusted offensive efficiency – they’re not built for that challenge.
Here’s the matchup that seals it for me: Clemson’s 5th-ranked turnover rate against Cincinnati’s 316th-ranked turnover numbers. The Bearcats cough it up 14.3 times per game, and Clemson doesn’t give it back (8.8 turnovers per game). In a 68-possession game, if Clemson wins the turnover battle by even 4-5 possessions, that’s an extra 8-10 points right there when you factor in points per possession.
The three-point shooting matchup slightly favors Clemson (32.8% to 32.0%), but the real advantage comes in volume and shot selection. Clemson’s effective field goal percentage of 53.2% crushes Cincinnati’s 50.3% mark. Over 55-60 field goal attempts, that 2.9% gap translates to roughly 3-4 made baskets – another 6-8 point swing.
I keep coming back to those adjusted efficiency numbers because they’re just too extreme to ignore. A 16-point net efficiency gap, at home, in a slower-paced game that favors the more efficient team – the math points to Clemson winning this game by double digits.
My Play
The Pick: Clemson -6.5 (-110) for 2 units
I’m laying the points with Clemson at home. The efficiency gap is too massive, the pace favors the Tigers, and Cincinnati’s offensive struggles are getting worse, not better. I’m projecting Clemson 73, Cincinnati 62 – an 11-point Tigers victory that covers comfortably.
The main risk here is if Cincinnati’s elite defense (23rd in adjusted defensive efficiency) slows Clemson down enough to keep this within a single possession. The Bearcats can guard, and if they hit their season average from three (32.0%) while Clemson goes cold, this could stay tight. But I’ve considered all of that, and the offensive efficiency gap is still too massive to ignore.
Cincinnati can’t score consistently, they turn it over constantly, and they shoot 63% from the free throw line. Clemson takes care of the ball, controls tempo, and executes in the halfcourt. At home, giving less than a touchdown, I’m backing the Tigers to handle business and move to 8-2 on the season.
