RBD breaks down two NCAA tournament betting spots using his proven handicapping models and fade-based strategy.
Arkansas at Arizona
Illinois at Houston
Two NCAA Tournament Picks and Analysis
I don’t usually aim for (or expect) perfection, but that’s exactly what I’m going for tonight.
With a short card in the NBA (only three games) and Kid’s Ball (four games) I didn’t expect to have any action tonight. My NBA handicapping session didn’t kick out any plays worth buying but I’ll have money on two of the four college games.
Model Performance Breakdown
Both games qualify for both of the two mathematical models I use for picking totals.
Here’s a breakdown of their records:
T1 Ov/Un 24-38, 38% (a 62% Fade)
T2 Ov/Un 28-35, 44% (a 56% Fade)
Both plays are a profitable Fade, all games.
Broken down into the Ov/Un subcategories I get this:
T1 Ov 14-23, (a 63% Fade)
T1 Un 10-15 (a 60% Fade)
T2 Ov 20-24 (a 55% Fade)
T2 Un 8-11 (a 58% Fade)
I set 58% as the bar for making a buy or not.
Anything at 58% or higher is worth a play, so three of the four spots listed above have a W percentage that qualifies as a play.
Game One: Arkansas vs Arizona
Here are the two spots I’m going with tonight.
T1 says Ark/Az stays Under tonight.
That’s a 60% Fade.
T2 also says Ark/Az stays Under.
That’s a 58% Fade.
So I have a match, both handicapping models T1 and T2 say this game stays Under.
There have been six games during the tournaments where I had a match.
The record is 0-6.
Perfection.
Stat Breakdown
Looking at standard stats, my plays have mixed statistical edges, some for me, some against.
In the playoffs Ark is 3-2 Ov/Un all games.
Using tonight’s number of 165 (or fewer based on what number I finally buy it at) Ark is the same, 3-2.
Those are okay numbers for my play on the Over.
But here’s where it gets ugly.
Arizona is also 3-2 Ov/Un in the playoffs.
But ALL five of their games have stayed Under tonight’s total.
That’s not just ugly, that’s Elephant Man level ugly.
I had to dig a little deeper into those games.
Here’s what I found – only two of their five postseason opponents (Iowa State, ranked 31, and Utah State, ranked 42) were in the top 50 for offensive PPG.
The others were:
UCF, ranked number 54.
Houston, ranked 108.
LIU, ranked 214.
Tonight they face Arkansas.
Ranked at number 2, scoring 90.3 PPG.
Game Two: Illinois vs Houston
T1 says the Illinois/Houston game goes Over.
That’s a 63% Fade.
T2 also says Illinois/Houston goes Over.
That’s a 55% Fade, 3% less than the bar I use.
But there have been seven games that qualified for an Over in both models during the tournaments.
The record is 0-7.
Perfection.
I’m relying on my data for profitable Fades and buying the Arkansas game Over and the Illinois game Under.
Stat Breakdown
In my other game, Houston is 2-3 Ov/Un in the postseason, with three of their five games staying Under the total I have for tonight’s game.
Illinois is 2-1 Ov/Un but two of those three games sailed Over tonight’s total.
But I’m not too concerned with that stat because the two games that easily went Over came against Penn, who is ranked 173 for defense, giving up an average of 74.1 PPG, and Wisconsin who’s ranked 220, giving up an average of 76.1 PPG.
Houston is ranked number one in the country, giving up just 62.3 PPG.
Line Movement
Ark/Az opened at 167 and is down to 164′.
Ill/Houston opened at 144 and is down to 140′.
I already bought the Ill/Hou game Under at 140′ before the line moves any further against me.
I’ll wait on Arkansas since it’s moving in my favor.
Plays
My plays:
Ark/Az (wait to buy)
I’ll/Houston Un 140′
Recap
Recap: 1-0
Record: 10-15
Review: I got screwed by my normally reliable Asterisk Spots in my last six picks, I went from a workable 9-9 to a deep in the hole 9-15. In other words, I have some work to do, with a very limited schedule left on the season.
I started my comeback with my last pick, using High Point/Ark Over 169.
They combined for 182.
Hoping Arkansas can do me right again tonight.
Side Note
The UFL season starts tomorrow night.
I have no data accumulated to guide me to a play.
But the game is televised, and my craven desire for a little football action means I’ll have money on something.
When I figure out what, I’ll let you know.
