The Iowa State Cyclones look to extend their 14-game home win streak as they host the reeling Colorado Buffaloes at Hilton Coliseum. In our latest CBB Picks, we break down Iowa State’s #2 national ranking in adjusted offensive efficiency and why Colorado’s league-worst three-point defense makes this 17.5-point spread a primary focal point.
The Setup: Colorado at Iowa State
Iowa State’s laying 17.5 at Hilton Coliseum against Colorado, and if you’re hesitating because that number looks inflated, you haven’t been paying attention to what’s happening in Ames. The Cyclones are 9-0 and ranked 4th nationally in adjusted net efficiency at +31.9, while the Buffaloes have dropped five straight conference games and are hemorrhaging points on defense. When you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this isn’t just about Iowa State being good—it’s about Colorado being fundamentally broken on the defensive end right now. The market landed on 17.5 for a reason, and that reason is a 32-point gap in adjusted defensive efficiency that’s about to get exposed in one of college basketball’s toughest road environments.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: Colorado @ Iowa State
Date: January 29, 2026
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Venue: Hilton Coliseum, Ames, IA
Spread: Iowa State -17.5
Total: 152.5-154
Moneyline: Iowa State -2200, Colorado +1000
Why This Number Makes Sense
Let’s start with the efficiency gap that matters most. Iowa State checks in at 126.6 in adjusted offensive efficiency—2nd nationally—while Colorado sits at 109.3 in adjusted defensive efficiency, ranked 210th. That’s a 17.3-point advantage in the most predictive metric we have. On the flip side, Iowa State’s adjusted defensive rating of 94.7 (7th nationally) against Colorado’s adjusted offensive rating of 120.5 (20th) creates another 25.8-point edge for the Cyclones.
The pace differential is minimal—Colorado at 67.9 possessions per game (200th) versus Iowa State at 71.6 (85th)—so we’re looking at roughly 70 possessions in this one. When you project these efficiency numbers over expected possessions, you land right around an 18-20 point Iowa State advantage. The market at 17.5 is actually giving Colorado a small benefit of the doubt.
Here’s what seals it: Colorado’s defense is allowing 111.4 points per 100 possessions (262nd nationally) and opponents are shooting 45.7% from the field (286th) and 38.3% from three (349th—yes, dead last among major conference teams). Iowa State shoots 54.9% from the field (1st nationally) and 43.8% from three (3rd). This is a nightmare matchup for the Buffaloes.
Colorado Breakdown: The Offensive Mirage
Colorado’s offensive numbers look sexy at first glance—88.4 points per game (30th), 52.1% shooting (14th), 41.0% from three (6th). They’ve got five players averaging double figures, led by Isaiah Johnson’s 15.3 points per game, and point guard Barrington Hargress is distributing at 4.9 assists per contest (87th nationally).
But here’s the reality check: those numbers were built against a soft early schedule. Once Big 12 play started, Colorado has lost five straight, and the offensive efficiency has cratered against quality defenses. They scored 61 at West Virginia, 68 at Cincinnati, 69 against Kansas. When you face elite defensive units, Colorado’s 28.4% offensive rebounding rate (280th) means they’re one-and-done on most possessions.
The turnover ratio of 0.1 (3rd nationally) is legitimately elite—they only cough it up 9.4 times per game (16th). But against Iowa State’s pressure defense that forces 11.1 steals per game (7th nationally), that discipline is about to be tested in the loudest building in the Big 12.
Iowa State Breakdown: Elite on Both Ends
Iowa State isn’t just beating teams—they’re dismantling them systematically. The Cyclones rank 2nd nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency at 126.6, and it shows in their shot profile. They’re shooting 54.9% from the field (1st) and 62.8% effective field goal percentage (3rd). Milan Momcilovic leads the charge at 18.3 points per game, but the real engine is the Joshua Jefferson-Tamin Lipsey duo. Jefferson puts up 17.6 points and 5.4 assists (46th nationally), while Lipsey adds 16.8 points and 5.7 assists (40th). That’s two guys in the top 50 nationally in assists running the show.
Defensively, Iowa State is suffocating. They rank 7th in adjusted defensive efficiency at 94.7 and hold opponents to just 64.6 points per game (21st). The 11.1 steals per game (7th) creates chaos, leading to 236 points off turnovers through nine games. They’re holding opponents to 41.9% shooting (117th) and 33.0% from three (197th).
The only concern? Free throw shooting at 69.4% (246th). But when you’re this dominant everywhere else, it’s a minor blemish.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game comes down to Colorado’s porous defense meeting Iowa State’s elite offense in Hilton Coliseum. Colorado is allowing 78.4 points per game (282nd) with a defensive rating of 111.4 (262nd). Iowa State averages 94.6 points per game (9th) with an offensive rating of 131.9 (20th). The math isn’t complicated.
The perimeter matchup is particularly brutal for Colorado. They’re 349th nationally in opponent three-point percentage at 38.3%, and Iowa State shoots 43.8% from deep (3rd). Momcilovic, Jefferson, and Lipsey are going to get clean looks all night, and Colorado doesn’t have the defensive personnel to rotate effectively.
Colorado’s only path to covering involves getting hot from three themselves—they shoot 41.0% (6th)—and hoping Iowa State goes cold. But the Buffaloes rank 280th in offensive rebounding percentage at 28.4%, so missed shots mean Iowa State transitions the other way. And with the Cyclones generating 11.1 steals per game, Colorado’s margin for error is razor-thin.
The head-to-head history is damning: Iowa State won 99-71 in 2024 and 79-65 in 2025, both in Ames. Colorado hasn’t shown they can handle this environment or this level of efficiency on both ends.
Bash’s Best Bet
I’m laying the 17.5 with Iowa State, and I’m not overthinking it. The efficiency gap is massive, the matchup favors the Cyclones on both ends, and Colorado is reeling after five straight conference losses. Iowa State is 9-0 with a +31.9 adjusted net efficiency (4th nationally) for a reason—they’re elite on both ends of the floor.
Colorado’s defense ranks 210th in adjusted efficiency and dead last in opponent three-point percentage. Iowa State shoots the ball better than anyone in the country and ranks 2nd in adjusted offensive efficiency. This is a get-right game for the Cyclones after dropping two of their last five, and they’re going to make a statement at home.
The number is fair, maybe even a touch low. Take Iowa State -17.5 and watch them run Colorado out of the gym.
