Can Cornell’s elite three-point shooting survive the “Go Green” defense in East Lansing? Bryan Bash breaks down the efficiency mismatch and provides his top ATS pick for Monday’s clash at the Breslin Center.
The Setup: Cornell at Michigan State
Michigan State is laying 26.5 points against Cornell at the Breslin Center, and I can already hear the groans: That’s way too many against a team averaging 91 points per game. Look, I get it. Cornell can score – they rank 16th nationally at 91.1 PPG and have the 9th-best three-point shooting percentage in the country at 40.6%. Those are real numbers that deserve respect.
Here’s the thing – this line isn’t about disrespecting Cornell’s offense. It’s about acknowledging a defensive chasm so wide you could drive a Mack truck through it. According to collegebasketballdata.com, Michigan State’s adjusted defensive efficiency ranks 4th in the entire country at 93.0, while Cornell checks in at 288th with a 113.2 mark. That’s a 20-point gap in adjusted defensive efficiency, folks. Let me walk you through why this spread isn’t just justified – it might actually be light.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: Cornell (5-5) at Michigan State (8-1)
Date: December 29, 2025
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Venue: Breslin Center, East Lansing, MI
Spread: Michigan State -26.5
Total: 156.5
Moneyline: MSU -20000, Cornell +3500
Why This Number Makes Sense
The efficiency numbers from collegebasketballdata.com tell a story that’s impossible to ignore. Michigan State’s adjusted net efficiency of 21.7 ranks 13th nationally, while Cornell sits at 136th with a 3.0 mark. That’s an 18.7-point gap in adjusted efficiency – and guess what? The line is 26.5. The market is basically saying Michigan State wins by their efficiency margin plus a home court bump.
But here’s where it gets interesting for the Spartans: Cornell’s tempo. The Big Red play at the 49th-fastest pace in the country at 72.7 possessions per game, while Michigan State grinds at 66.6 possessions (251st nationally). Do that math over 70 possessions, and you’re looking at Michigan State imposing their will on both ends. The Spartans hold opponents to just 61.0 points per game (9th nationally) and limit teams to 38.0% shooting from the field (22nd) and 28.6% from three (41st).
That’s not just good defense – it’s elite, suffocating defense that’s going to turn Cornell’s high-octane offense into a sputtering mess. Cornell’s defensive rating of 112.3 ranks 280th nationally. They allow 85.8 points per game, which ranks 349th in the country. That’s bottom-25 defense in all of college basketball, and they’re walking into the Breslin Center against a Michigan State team that ranks 18th nationally in assists per game at 19.1.
Cornell’s Situation
Credit where it’s due: Cornell can flat-out shoot it. That 40.6% from three ranks 9th nationally, and their 60.5% effective field goal percentage (9th) shows they’re getting quality looks. Cooper Noard is a legitimate scorer at 20.2 PPG (30th nationally), and the Big Red lead the entire country in assists per game at 21.3. They move the ball beautifully and have multiple weapons.
But here’s the problem – they can’t stop anybody. That 113.2 adjusted defensive efficiency (288th) isn’t a fluke. They allow 47.6% shooting from the field (334th) and 36.3% from three (314th). Their offensive rebounding percentage of 27.6% ranks 308th, meaning they’re not generating second chances. And look at their recent schedule: they gave up 93 to Samford, 93 to Towson, and 99 to George Mason in three straight losses. The one constant? When Cornell faces quality competition, their defense crumbles.
They’re 5-5 overall with wins over UAlbany and Bucknell – not exactly murderer’s row. Their defensive rebounding is mediocre at best, and they rank 295th in blocks per game at 2.6. Michigan State is going to get whatever they want in the paint.
Michigan State’s Situation
The Spartans are 8-1 with their only loss coming to Duke, and they’ve been absolutely dominant defensively. That 93.0 adjusted defensive efficiency (4th nationally) is the foundation of everything they do. Jeremy Fears Jr. leads the entire country in assists at 9.7 per game, orchestrating an offense that may not be flashy but is brutally efficient in half-court sets.
Jaxon Kohler provides 14.2 PPG and 9.6 RPG (28th nationally in rebounds), giving them an interior presence that Cornell simply cannot match. Carson Cooper adds another 6.9 RPG (188th), and Michigan State’s 34.0% offensive rebounding rate (90th) is going to create havoc against Cornell’s weak defensive glass work. The Spartans rank 33rd nationally in total rebounds per game at 41.8.
Here’s the matchup that seals it for me: Michigan State’s defensive pressure against Cornell’s turnover issues. The Big Red cough it up 13.8 times per game (295th), and while Michigan State doesn’t generate a ton of steals, their disciplined defense forces opponents into bad shots. The Spartans just throttled Iowa 71-52 in their last game, holding them well below their season average.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game lives and dies on one question: Can Cornell’s elite shooting overcome Michigan State’s elite defense at the Breslin Center? I keep coming back to those defensive efficiency numbers because they’re just too extreme to ignore. A 20-point gap in adjusted defensive efficiency is massive – that’s the difference between a top-5 defense and a bottom-third defense.
The pace battle favors Michigan State. Cornell wants to run at 72.7 possessions, but the Spartans are going to slow this thing down to their preferred 66.6 pace. That’s roughly six fewer possessions for Cornell to work with, and every possession matters when you’re trying to keep a game within 26.5 points. Do that math over a 67-possession game, and Michigan State’s efficiency advantage translates to roughly 20-22 points before you factor in home court.
The three-point shooting matchup is fascinating. Cornell shoots 40.6% from deep, but Michigan State limits opponents to 28.6% from three. Something’s gotta give, and I’m betting on the home defense. Cornell’s offensive rebounding rate of 27.6% (308th) means they’re not getting second chances when those threes don’t fall. Meanwhile, Michigan State’s 34.0% offensive rebounding rate (90th) is going to create extra possessions against Cornell’s terrible defensive rebounding.
The main risk here is if Cornell gets nuclear from three and hits 15+ threes at their season percentage. But even then, Michigan State’s methodical offense should score comfortably into the 80s against Cornell’s 349th-ranked scoring defense.
My Play
Michigan State -26.5 (3 units)
I’ve considered the shooting variance, I’ve considered Cornell’s offensive firepower, and the efficiency gap is still too massive to ignore. Michigan State is 20+ points better than Cornell in adjusted defensive efficiency, and they’re playing at home where they’ve been dominant. The Spartans should be able to score 80+ against Cornell’s atrocious defense while holding the Big Red to the low 60s.
I’m projecting Michigan State 82, Cornell 58. That’s a 24-point margin, which gives us a slight sweat but puts us on the right side of the number. Cornell’s recent road losses – by 13 to Samford, by 13 to Towson, and by 18 to George Mason – show they struggle away from home against quality competition. Michigan State is several tiers above those teams defensively.
The Spartans cover this by double digits. Bank on the defense, trust the efficiency gap, and cash the ticket.
