Providence has dropped three straight in their own building, yet the market is only giving them 1.5 points against a Creighton team on “tired legs.” Bash asks if the Friars’ elite scoring can finally ruin the best bet for a Bluejays squad that just survived a grueling overtime thriller in Omaha.
The Setup: Creighton at Providence
Creighton’s getting 1.5 points at Providence on Friday night, and if you’re wondering why the Bluejays are road favorites against a team with a better record, you’re asking the right question. Here’s the answer: efficiency matters more than wins and losses, especially in January. According to collegebasketballdata.com, Creighton ranks 109th nationally in adjusted net efficiency at +6.2, while Providence sits at 80th with a +9.5 mark. Wait—Providence has the better efficiency number? Then why is Creighton favored? Because the raw efficiency gap isn’t as wide as it looks, and more importantly, these teams are headed in completely different directions. Providence has dropped four of their last five, including a brutal home loss to Seton Hall. Creighton just knocked off Georgetown in a shootout and took down Butler. Momentum matters, and the market is telling us something important about these two squads right now.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: Creighton @ Providence
Date: January 16, 2026
Time: 6:30 PM ET
Venue: Amica Mutual Pavilion, Providence, RI
Betting Lines:
- Spread: Creighton -1.5
- Total: 162.5
- Moneyline: Providence -108, Creighton -112 (BetAnything)
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
A 1.5-point spread in a Big East road game is basically a pick’em with a slight lean, and that’s exactly what this matchup deserves. Let’s break down why. Creighton’s adjusted offensive efficiency sits at 111.3, ranking 111th nationally. Providence checks in at 117.7, good for 35th in the country. That’s a significant offensive advantage for the Friars. But flip to defense, and Creighton’s adjusted defensive mark of 105.1 (117th) edges Providence’s 108.2 (185th). The defensive gap isn’t as dramatic as the offensive one, but it exists.
Now let’s talk tempo, because this is where the total of 162.5 starts making sense. Providence plays at a pace of 72.5 possessions per game, ranking 52nd nationally. Creighton? They’re crawling at 67.3, good for 227th. When you average those pace numbers and factor in the offensive ratings—Creighton at 110.4 and Providence at 120.1—you land right around 160-165 points. The market nailed this total.
The spread, though? That’s where recent performance bleeds into the equation. Providence’s defensive rating of 109.7 ranks 240th nationally, and they’re surrendering 82.4 points per game (336th). They can’t get stops right now. Creighton’s not exactly a defensive juggernaut at 106.3 (187th), but they’re more consistent on that end. The line is essentially saying these teams are even on a neutral floor, with maybe a slight edge to Providence at home. I’m not sure I buy that given the Friars’ current form.
Creighton Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
Creighton’s offensive profile is balanced but unspectacular. They’re shooting 44.7% from the field (213th) and just 31.9% from three (245th). Those aren’t numbers that inspire confidence, but the effective field goal percentage of 52.5% (154th) and true shooting mark of 55.6% (191st) suggest they’re getting decent looks. They just need to convert more consistently.
The real strength here is ball security. Creighton’s turning it over just 12.2 times per game (184th) with a turnover ratio of 0.2 (181st). Against a Providence defense that forces 7.7 steals per game (132nd), that discipline matters. Josh Dix leads the way at 11.7 points per game, but this is a committee approach with five guys averaging between 9.0 and 11.7 points. Blake Harper pulls down 5.8 boards (392nd nationally among all players), and Nik Graves distributes at 3.6 assists per game (248th).
Creighton’s won three of their last five, and in those wins, they’ve scored 76, 86, and 89 points. They can score when they need to. The question is whether they can keep up with Providence’s pace and firepower.
Providence Breakdown: The Counterpoint
Providence is an offensive machine that can’t stop anybody. They’re scoring 90.4 points per game (18th nationally) with a true shooting percentage of 60.9% (41st). Jason Edwards is a legitimate scorer at 18.6 points per game (70th), and Jaylin Sellers adds 15.4 (263rd). They shoot 49.1% from the field (51st) and 36.3% from three (83rd). The efficiency is elite—117.7 adjusted offensive rating ranks 35th.
But here’s the problem: they’re giving up 82.4 points per game (336th) and opponents are shooting 37.8% from three against them (342nd). That three-point defense is catastrophic. They block shots well at 5.2 per game (25th), but it’s not enough to overcome the perimeter leakage. The adjusted defensive rating of 108.2 ranks 185th, which is mediocre at best.
The Friars are also struggling with offensive rebounding, ranking 324th nationally in offensive rebound percentage at 26.7%. Against a Creighton team that’s solid on the defensive glass, Providence won’t get many second chances. And when you’re losing four of five, including home losses to Seton Hall and Villanova, the confidence isn’t there.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game comes down to two factors: pace and perimeter defense. Providence wants to push tempo and get into the mid-70s in possessions. Creighton wants to slow it down and grind this into a halfcourt battle. Providence ranks 52nd in pace; Creighton ranks 227th. Whoever controls that tempo will have a massive advantage.
The other key? Three-point shooting. Creighton’s shooting just 31.9% from deep, but Providence is allowing 37.8% (342nd). If the Bluejays can find any rhythm from the perimeter, they’ll exploit Providence’s biggest weakness. On the flip side, Providence shoots 36.3% from three (83rd) and will look to attack Creighton’s defense, which allows 32.5% from deep (169th). That’s a favorable matchup for the Friars.
Points in the paint will matter too. Providence has scored 398 points in the paint through 10 games compared to Creighton’s 288. The Friars have the interior advantage with their superior shooting percentage and ability to get to the rim. If they can dominate inside and force Creighton into contested jumpers, they’ll cover this small number at home.
Bash’s Best Bet
I’m taking Creighton -1.5. Providence’s defensive issues are too glaring to ignore, and their recent form suggests a team that’s mentally checked out. Losing four of five, including two home losses, is a red flag. Creighton’s not perfect, but they’re disciplined, they take care of the ball, and they’re playing with confidence after wins over Georgetown and Butler.
The spread is essentially a pick’em, and I’ll take the team that’s trending up over the team that’s falling apart. Providence’s offensive firepower is real, but they can’t get stops. Creighton will slow this game down, limit possessions, and win an ugly one in the low 70s. Give me the Bluejays laying the short number on the road.
Pick: Creighton -1.5
