Despite Drake’s reputation for elite perimeter defense, the point spread has held steady at 6.5, suggesting professional money respects Murray State’s home-court dominance. Bryan Bash breaks down the betting splits and sharp signals for this December 18th showdown.
The Setup: Drake at Murray State
Murray State’s laying 6 to 6.5 points at home against Drake in an early MVC battle, and here’s the thing – this number feels about three points light when you start digging into what these teams actually do. The Racers are sitting at 7-3 with an offensive rating that ranks 16th nationally at 133.5, per collegebasketballdata.com, while Drake limps in at 6-4 after dropping three of their last five. I’m not saying this should be double digits, but when you’ve got a team that scores like Murray State does facing a Drake squad that’s elite at not turning the ball over but struggles to create second-chance opportunities, you’ve got a style matchup that favors the home team significantly. The Racers play at CFSB Center, where they’ve been explosive, and they’re catching a Bulldogs team that just gave up 99 points to North Dakota State in their last outing. Let me walk you through why this spread has legitimate value on the home side.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: Drake at Murray State
Date: December 18, 2025
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Venue: CFSB Center, Murray, KY
Spread: Murray State -6 to -6.5
Total: 158.5 to 159.5
Why This Number Makes Sense
The efficiency gap here tells you everything you need to know about why Murray State is favored, but it also reveals why this spread should be bigger. According to collegebasketballdata.com, the Racers post an offensive rating of 133.5 (16th nationally) compared to Drake’s 116.7 (107th). That’s a 16.8-point gap in offensive efficiency. Now flip to defense, and Drake holds the edge at 95.9 (43rd) versus Murray State’s 116.3 (326th). That’s a 20.4-point defensive gap favoring the Bulldogs.
Here’s where it gets interesting: When you’ve got an elite offense against an elite defense, the offense typically wins at home. Both teams play at nearly identical tempos – Drake at 65.7 possessions per game (275th) and Murray State at 65.8 (272nd) – so we’re looking at roughly 66 possessions in this game. Do that math over 66 possessions, and Murray State’s offensive advantage translates to about 11 extra points based purely on efficiency. The Racers’ home court and Drake’s recent defensive lapses (allowing 99 to NDSU, 74 to UAB) push this even further.
The adjusted efficiency numbers from collegebasketballdata.com show Murray State at 113.0 offensive (90th) and Drake at 110.8 (121st), with defensive adjustments at 105.7 (135th) for the Racers and 105.2 (119th) for Drake. The net ratings are closer than the raw numbers suggest – Murray State at +7.3, Drake at +5.6 – but that’s accounting for strength of schedule. In a neutral environment, these teams are nearly even. This isn’t a neutral environment.
Drake’s Situation
The Bulldogs do two things exceptionally well: They don’t turn the ball over, and they defend the three-point line. Drake ranks 6th nationally in turnovers per game at just 8.8, with a turnover ratio that sits 3rd in the country. That’s elite ball security, and it’s why their offensive rating stays respectable despite middling shooting percentages. Jalen Quinn leads the way at 18.3 points per game (83rd nationally), and Okku Federiko provides interior presence at 12.3 points and 6.7 rebounds.
Here’s the problem: Drake ranks 340th in offensive rebounding percentage at just 25.9%. That’s catastrophic when you’re facing a Murray State team that crashes the glass at 32.8% (124th). The Bulldogs get one shot and done, which means every possession becomes critical. Their defense allows just 30.5% from three (92nd) and 39.6% overall (48th), but those numbers are deceiving given recent results. They’ve allowed 74+ points in three straight losses, suggesting the defensive metrics haven’t caught up to current form.
Drake’s pace ranking of 275th means they want to grind this game, shorten possessions, and keep the score in the 70s. That’s their only path to covering.
Murray State’s Situation
The Racers are an offensive juggernaut that ranks 34th nationally in scoring at 88.0 points per game. They shoot 56.2% effective field goal percentage (59th) and post a true shooting percentage of 60.6% (47th), per collegebasketballdata.com. Javon Jackson paces the attack at 16.1 points, while Fred King provides a double-double threat at 12.2 points and 8.2 rebounds (68th nationally). The Racers have five guys in double figures, making them incredibly difficult to game-plan against.
Murray State’s weakness is obvious: They rank 326th in defensive rating at 116.3. They allow 76.4 points per game (253rd) and give up 44.3% shooting (222nd). They’re not stopping anybody. But here’s why this line makes sense – they don’t need to lock down Drake. They just need to outscore them, and with that 16th-ranked offensive rating, they’ve got the firepower to do it.
The Racers’ offensive rebounding percentage of 32.8% (124th) is significantly better than Drake’s 25.9% (340th), meaning Murray State will generate extra possessions. They also push the pace in transition with 132 fast break points compared to Drake’s 89. When the Bulldogs turn it over – even at their low rate – the Racers are converting at 161 points off turnovers versus Drake’s 133.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game lives and dies on whether Drake can slow Murray State’s offensive rhythm and limit second-chance opportunities. The collegebasketballdata.com numbers show a massive rebounding gap: Murray State crashes the offensive glass at 32.8% while Drake sits at 25.9%. That’s a 6.9% gap, which translates to roughly 4-5 extra possessions for the Racers in a 66-possession game. At Murray State’s offensive efficiency, that’s another 8-10 points right there.
The three-point matchup slightly favors Drake – they shoot 36.8% (69th) versus Murray State’s 36.1% (91st), and they defend it better at 30.5% allowed (92nd) compared to the Racers’ 32.3% (161st). But I keep coming back to those offensive rebounding numbers because they’re just too extreme to ignore. Drake’s inability to crash the glass means Murray State gets multiple cracks at every defensive possession.
Drake’s ball security (8.8 turnovers per game, 6th nationally) keeps them in games, but Murray State doesn’t force turnovers anyway – just 6.1 steals per game (274th). The Racers don’t need to create chaos; they need to execute in the halfcourt and dominate the glass. That’s exactly their formula.
Here’s the matchup that seals it for me: Fred King (8.2 rebounds, 68th nationally) against Drake’s frontcourt. The Bulldogs don’t have an answer for a big who can score and rebound. Okku Federiko at 6.7 boards is solid, but King’s combination of size and skill creates mismatches. When you add Roman Domon’s 5.7 rebounds from the guard spot, Murray State has multiple guys crashing while Drake watches.
My Play
Murray State -6.5 for 2 units
I’ve considered Drake’s elite ball security and defensive metrics, but the rebounding gap is still too massive to ignore. Murray State wins the possession battle by 4-5 extra trips, and at their offensive efficiency, that’s the difference between covering and not covering. The Racers are at home, where they’ve been explosive (115 at Akron, 96 at George Washington), and they’re catching a Drake team that’s struggling defensively despite the rankings.
The main risk here is if Drake slows this to a 60-possession rock fight and hits their threes at 40%+. That keeps them within single digits. But Murray State’s offensive rebounding should create enough extra possessions to push this into the 84-75 range, which covers the 6.5 comfortably.
Final Score Prediction: Murray State 84, Drake 73
The Racers’ offensive firepower and rebounding advantage are too much for Drake to overcome on the road. Lay the points with confidence.
