he Memphis Tigers look to stop a two-game skid as they host the Florida Atlantic Owls in a critical AAC rematch at FedExForum. In our latest ATS Pick, we analyze the razor-thin margin between these teams’ adjusted net ratings—FAU at #95 and Memphis at #125—and why the Tigers’ #35-ranked adjusted defensive efficiency is the key to slowing down the Owls’ explosive transition game.
The Setup: Florida Atlantic at Memphis
Memphis is laying 2.5 points at home against Florida Atlantic, and if you’re scratching your head at that number, you’re not alone. These two teams just played eleven days ago, and FAU walked into Memphis and won by eleven. Now the Tigers are favored in the rematch at FedExForum? The market is essentially saying that home court is worth 13.5 points here, which feels aggressive until you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers and realize both teams are sitting at virtually identical adjusted net ratings—Memphis at 5.3 (#113) and FAU at 5.4 (#112). This isn’t a mismatch. It’s a coin flip with home court as the tiebreaker, and the question isn’t whether Memphis can win—it’s whether they can cover a short number after getting boat-raced in their own building less than two weeks ago.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: Florida Atlantic @ Memphis
Date: January 29, 2026
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Venue: FedExForum, Memphis, TN
Type: Conference Game
Betting Lines (DraftKings):
Spread: Memphis -2.5
Total: 151.5
Moneyline: Memphis -122, Florida Atlantic +102
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
Look, I get why the market landed here. Memphis has the better defensive profile—103.3 adjusted defensive rating (#90) versus FAU’s 108.7 (#201)—and they’re at home where they theoretically should be able to dictate tempo and leverage that defensive edge. The Tigers force more turnovers (13.2 to 11.3) and generate more steals (8.4 per game, #87 nationally). In a tight, grind-it-out game at FedExForum, Memphis should have the advantage.
But here’s the problem: FAU just proved they can win this exact game in this exact building. And when you look at the offensive efficiency numbers, the Owls have a significant edge—114.0 adjusted offensive rating (#75) compared to Memphis’s 108.6 (#157). That’s a 5.4-point gap in offensive efficiency, which matters in a game where the spread is 2.5. FAU also plays at a slower pace (65.2, #290) than Memphis (69.9, #138), which should keep possessions limited and variance low. The total sitting at 151.5 makes sense given the tempo differential and defensive capabilities, but asking Memphis to cover 2.5 after losing by eleven in the first meeting? That’s where I start getting skeptical.
Florida Atlantic Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
FAU’s offensive identity is built around two things: offensive rebounding and rim protection. The Owls rank 18th nationally in offensive rebound percentage (36.8%) and 9th in blocks per game (6.0). That’s a nasty combination because it means they’re getting second-chance opportunities while protecting their own rim on the other end. Devin Vanterpool is the engine here—17.0 points and 7.6 rebounds per game—and Kanaan Carlyle provides secondary scoring at 15.6 points per contest.
The issue with FAU is their perimeter defense, which ranks 358th nationally in opponent three-point percentage (39.9%). Teams are absolutely lighting them up from deep, which should theoretically give Memphis an opening. But here’s the catch: Memphis shoots just 32.4% from three (#228), so they’re not exactly equipped to exploit that weakness. FAU’s adjusted offensive efficiency at 114.0 (#75) tells you they’re capable of scoring against quality competition, and their 115.0 offensive rating (#131) in real-time metrics backs that up. They won the first meeting by controlling the glass and limiting Memphis’s transition opportunities.
Memphis Breakdown: The Counterpoint
Memphis’s strength is their defensive versatility. They rank 96th in opponent field goal percentage (41.3%) and 144th in opponent three-point percentage (31.8%), which means they’re solid across the board. Dug McDaniel is the best player on the floor—13.9 points and 6.4 assists per game (#13 nationally in assists)—and he’s the type of point guard who can control pace and create advantages in the half-court.
The problem is Memphis’s offense, which ranks 157th in adjusted offensive efficiency (108.6) and 289th in true shooting percentage (53.2%). They’re not efficient shooters, they don’t get to the line consistently (70.2% free throw percentage, #227), and they turn the ball over too much (13.2 per game, #255). The Tigers rank 10th nationally in offensive rebound percentage (37.7%), so they crash the glass hard, but when you’re shooting 43.2% from the field (#281) and 32.4% from three (#228), those second chances don’t always translate to points. Memphis’s 4-4 record reflects their inconsistency—they can lock you down defensively, but they struggle to score in the half-court.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game comes down to two battles: the glass and the turnover margin. Both teams rank in the top 18 nationally in offensive rebounding, so whoever controls the boards will likely control possessions. FAU’s 36.8% offensive rebound rate (#18) versus Memphis’s 37.7% (#10) is essentially a push, which means we’re looking at a rock fight on the glass with minimal separation.
The turnover battle favors Memphis on paper—they force 13.2 turnovers per game compared to FAU’s 11.3—but the Owls are more disciplined with the ball (116th in turnovers per game versus Memphis’s 255th). If Memphis can generate extra possessions through steals and transition opportunities, they can cover. But if this turns into a half-court slugfest, FAU’s superior offensive efficiency (114.0 vs 108.6) should give them the edge.
The pace differential is critical here. FAU wants this game in the low 60s for possessions, grinding it out and limiting Memphis’s transition chances. Memphis wants to push the tempo and create chaos with their pressure defense. The Tigers are at home, so they should be able to dictate tempo to some degree, but FAU proved in the first meeting they can slow Memphis down and win in a low-possession game. The total at 151.5 suggests the market expects around 67-68 possessions, which splits the difference between these two tempos.
Bash’s Best Bet
I’m taking Florida Atlantic +2.5. Look, Memphis is the better defensive team, and they’re at home, but FAU just won this game by eleven in this building. The Owls have the better offensive efficiency, they’re more disciplined with the ball, and they’ve proven they can execute their game plan against Memphis. The market is asking me to believe that home court is worth 13.5 points in a rematch, and I’m not buying it.
FAU’s adjusted offensive efficiency edge (114.0 vs 108.6) is significant, and their ability to control the glass and protect the rim gives them multiple ways to win. Memphis’s offensive struggles are real—they rank 289th in true shooting percentage and 281st in field goal percentage—and I don’t see how they suddenly figure out how to score efficiently against a team that just held them to 78 points. Give me the Owls and the points. If they win outright again, I won’t be shocked.
