he Florida Gators bring a top-10 defensive unit into Columbia for a high-stakes meeting with the South Carolina Gamecocks. In our latest CBB Picks, we analyze why the 10.5-point spread reflects a massive chasm in adjusted net efficiency and how Florida’s nation-leading rebounding dictates the math.
The Setup: Florida at South Carolina
Florida’s laying 10.5 points on the road at South Carolina, and if you’re squinting at that number wondering how the Gators command double-digits in Columbia, you’re not alone. But here’s the thing—when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this spread starts making a whole lot more sense. Florida sits at #21 nationally in adjusted net efficiency with a 19.3 rating, while South Carolina checks in at #92 with a 7.9 mark. That’s not a minor gap. That’s a chasm. The Gators bring a top-10 adjusted defensive rating (#9 at 95.3) into Colonial Life Arena, and they’re catching a Gamecocks squad that’s dropped four of their last five and looks increasingly overmatched in SEC play. This number might feel aggressive at first glance, but the efficiency data suggests the market knows exactly what it’s doing here.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: Florida @ South Carolina
Date: January 28, 2026
Time: 9:00 PM ET
Venue: Colonial Life Arena, Columbia, SC
DraftKings:
Spread: Florida -10.5
Total: 151.5
Moneyline: Florida -500, South Carolina +380
Bovada:
Spread: Florida -10.5
Total: 151
Moneyline: Florida -600, South Carolina +425
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
Let’s start with the efficiency math, because that’s where this spread gets its backbone. Florida’s adjusted offensive efficiency sits at 114.6 (#69), while South Carolina checks in at 112.4 (#95). Not a massive edge there. But flip to the defensive side and the picture crystallizes—Florida’s 95.3 adjusted defensive rating (#9) absolutely dwarfs South Carolina’s 104.4 mark (#107). That’s nearly a 10-point gap in defensive efficiency, which translates directly to point differential expectations.
Now factor in the pace dynamic. Florida runs at 74.3 possessions per game (#25 nationally), while South Carolina crawls at 64.3 (#309). The Gators are going to try pushing tempo, and when they succeed, they create more possessions for their elite defense to suffocate opponents. South Carolina wants to grind this into a halfcourt slugfest, but their turnover issues—even with a solid 9.7 turnovers per game (#23)—become magnified against pressure defenses.
The market landed on 10.5 because the efficiency gap projects to roughly 11.4 points on a neutral floor. Take away a couple points for true road environment, and you’re staring at this exact number. The total sitting at 151-151.5 makes sense too—Florida’s defensive rating suggests they’ll hold South Carolina well below their 81.1 scoring average, while the Gamecocks’ respectable 100.6 defensive rating (#101) should keep this from becoming a complete shootout.
Florida Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
The Gators do two things at an elite level, and both matter tremendously in this matchup. First, they defend the three-point line like their lives depend on it—opponents shoot just 26.0% from deep against them (#8 nationally). South Carolina relies on the perimeter for offensive balance, shooting 32.7% as a team (#217), and that matchup tilts heavily toward Florida’s strength.
Second, Florida absolutely dominates the glass. They rank #1 nationally in rebounds per game at 47.2, with a 36.0% offensive rebounding rate (#31). Against a South Carolina team that ranks #324 in offensive rebounding percentage at just 26.7%, this creates a massive second-chance opportunity gap. Rueben Chinyelu (11.5 rebounds per game, #5 nationally) and Alex Condon (8.6 RPG, #57) should feast on the offensive glass.
The shooting percentages look ugly—43.3% from the field (#278) and a brutal 27.3% from three (#352)—but Florida compensates with volume, pace, and defensive stops. Their 112.3 offensive rating (#161) isn’t spectacular, but it doesn’t need to be when you’re holding opponents to 96.8 points per 100 possessions (#48).
South Carolina Breakdown: The Counterpoint
South Carolina does have some things working in their favor, even if the overall profile looks shaky. They shoot 46.0% from the field (#152) and 54.1% effective field goal percentage (#114), which represents solid offensive efficiency. Meechie Johnson leads at 15.1 points per game, and they’ve got balanced scoring with four guys averaging double figures.
More importantly, they take care of the basketball. That 9.7 turnovers per game (#23) and 0.1 turnover ratio (#17) means they’re not going to beat themselves with careless possessions. Against Florida’s pressure—the Gators force 14.1 turnovers per game (#308), which isn’t particularly high—South Carolina should get clean looks in the halfcourt.
The problem? They can’t defend consistently. That 104.4 adjusted defensive rating (#107) is mediocre, and they allow 42.4% shooting from the field (#134). Florida’s going to get quality shots, and with the Gators’ rebounding dominance, those misses turn into second and third opportunities. South Carolina’s also lost four of five, including blowout losses to Texas A&M (23 points) and Arkansas (34 points). The confidence isn’t there.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game lives and dies on two critical battlegrounds: the glass and the pace. Florida wants to crash the offensive boards, create chaos, and push tempo into the mid-70s possession range. South Carolina wants to slow this down, protect the defensive glass, and grind out possessions in the halfcourt where their shooting efficiency gives them a chance.
The rebounding mismatch is genuinely absurd. Florida’s 47.2 boards per game (#1) against South Carolina’s 35.8 (#230) represents an 11.4 rebound differential. Even accounting for pace differences, that’s an extra 4-6 possessions per game for the Gators. Those possessions matter enormously in an expected low-possession game.
Defensively, Florida’s ability to take away the three-point line (#8 in opponent three-point percentage at 26.0%) matches up perfectly against a South Carolina team that needs perimeter balance. The Gamecocks aren’t built to win games exclusively in the paint—they rank #324 in offensive rebounding percentage—so when Florida shuts down the arc, where do the points come from?
South Carolina’s best path to covering involves forcing Florida into a halfcourt slog, protecting the defensive glass, and hitting enough jumpers to stay within striking distance. But their recent form—four losses in five games with defensive ratings ballooning—suggests they’re not equipped to execute that game plan against an elite defensive team.
Bash’s Best Bet
I’m laying the 10.5 points with Florida, and I’m doing it with confidence. The efficiency gap is real, the rebounding mismatch is overwhelming, and South Carolina’s recent form suggests a team that’s struggling to compete with upper-tier SEC opponents. Florida’s adjusted net efficiency advantage of 11.4 points projects to exactly this spread after accounting for road environment.
The Gators’ elite defense (#9 in adjusted defensive rating) should hold South Carolina well below their 81.1 scoring average, and Florida’s rebounding dominance creates enough extra possessions to push this into comfortable double-digit territory. South Carolina’s lost four of five for a reason—they can’t defend consistently enough to hang with teams that bring Florida’s combination of defensive excellence and physical dominance.
Give me Florida -10.5, and I’ll sleep just fine on it.
