RBD breaks down his college basketball betting models and identifies a key totals prediction for High Point vs Arkansas.
I just got done serving 24 hours in, “I’ll Never Bet on These Morons Again” mode.
I’ve only been diligently handicapping Kid’s Ball for a week now, and I’ve only watched three games on TV, and TWICE I swore off ever betting or watching again.
The first time was when Cincinnati had a six-point lead with a minute to go and proceeded to turn the ball over THREE times.
Then, as they were holding for the last shot and a chance to win the game, the clock ran out on them – they didn’t even get a shot off!
Like I said, M-O-R-O-N-S.
But hard as it is to believe, North Carolina in round one was even worse than the Bearcats.
In their game against VCU they:
Blew a 19 point second half lead, with just 14 minutes left in the game.
Went 12-20 on free throws.
Shot 0-9 in the final two minutes of regulation and OT.
0-9!!!
And the play that sticks out most in my mind, at the end of regulation, still with a chance to win the game, NC was inbounding the ball after a VCU two point shot.
And the inbounds pass was thrown to a Tar Heel player who was heading up court and got hit in his back right shoulder with the toss in.
Way to keep your head in the game, D-bags.
North Carolina played with no heart, no guts, so I wasn’t surprised to see them crying like little b****** at the end of the game.
The Tar Heel collapse goes down in history as the sixth largest blown lead in March Madness history.
We’re talking a Margaret Hamilton type of meltdown here (somebody will get that reference.)
And sticking with that Oz mode, this Tar Heel bunch are the Tin Man – they have no heart.
After the game I swear I’d never bet on the idiots again.
But I’m down six units in college play and not ready to surrender them permanently.
Systems Review
Reviewing my charts and looking at my handicapping systems, here’s what I have to work with as we go into the second round.
WF1 is 9-11, no help there.
WF2 is 22-20, no help there either.
Nothing I can play ON or Fade.
Asterisk spots combined are 8-9, so nothing I can use there either.
But I may find salvation in my systems for choosing totals.
T1 is 14-21 Over and 7-10 Under.
That’s a combined 21-31, 59%.
T2 is 18-22 Over, 7-9 Under.
That’s a combined 25-31, 55%.
All four spots offer me slight edges to Fade.
But when I get matches, when both models have the same game qualify, I have a decided edge.
The Over is 0-6 and the Under is 0-4.
And I have one of those today.
Game Breakdown
Both models say the High Point/Arkansas game will stay Under the posted total.
During the season High Point was 21-11 Ov/Un.
Arkansas was 20-15.
In Round 1, High Point’s game had a total of 161′ and it went Over, barely, at 163.
Arkansas’ total was 158’and the game landed on 175.
Today’s game opened at 169 and right now as I’m looking across the board I see 169, 168′, and 170.
I’m not sure which way this one’s going to go, higher or lower, so I’m buying it now.
My Play
HP/Ark Ov 169
Recap
Recap: 0-3.
Record: 9-15
Review
The asterisk play was looking good coming into the week, a combined record of 2-7, the usual solid Fade.
Three games qualified on Tuesday the 17th so I played all three.
I lost all three.
Po’d, I didn’t play it on Wednesday.
Would have had a 2-0 day so I came back and used all three spots that qualified on Thursday.
And I lost all three again.
Ugh!
