Hofstra is on an absolute tear, but is 7.5 points too much to lay in a heated local rivalry? Bash asks if Stony Brook’s home-court energy can ruin the point spread cover for a Pride team that sometimes struggles to clear the defensive glass.
The Setup: Hofstra at Stony Brook
Hofstra’s laying 7.5 points on the road at Stony Brook, and on the surface, this looks like a classic CAA conference toss-up. Both teams sitting at similar records, mid-major matchup, road favorite in a conference game – I get why some bettors might pump the brakes here. But here’s the thing: when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this isn’t a coin flip at all. The Pride are riding a five-game winning streak and bring a massive efficiency advantage into Stony Brook Arena. The Seawolves, meanwhile, have dropped four of their last five and are showing some alarming cracks on both ends of the floor. Let me walk you through why this 7.5-point spread isn’t just justified – it might actually be a bit light.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: Hofstra (6-4) at Stony Brook (6-3)
Date: January 15, 2026
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Venue: Stony Brook Arena, Stony Brook, NY
Betting Lines:
- Spread: Hofstra -7.5
- Total: 135.5-136
- Moneyline: Hofstra -298 to -350, Stony Brook +240 to +275
Why This Number Makes Sense
The efficiency gap here tells you everything you need to know about why Hofstra’s getting this kind of respect on the road. According to collegebasketballdata.com, Hofstra’s adjusted net efficiency sits at +8.7, ranking 88th nationally. Stony Brook? They’re at -2.3, checking in at 193rd. That’s an 11-point efficiency gap, and here’s why that matters: over 68-69 possessions (the expected pace for this game), that differential projects to roughly a 7-8 point advantage for the Pride. The spread is basically tracking the efficiency numbers perfectly.
But let’s break down where that gap comes from. Hofstra’s adjusted offensive efficiency ranks 114th at 111.2, while Stony Brook sits way down at 176th with a 107.5 mark. That’s not just a slight edge – it’s a significant offensive advantage. On the defensive side, Hofstra’s adjusted defensive rating of 102.5 ranks 73rd nationally, while Stony Brook’s 109.9 ranks 227th. The Pride are better on both ends of the floor, and the numbers aren’t even close.
Here’s the matchup that seals it for me: Hofstra’s raw offensive rating of 111.9 against Stony Brook’s defensive rating of 99.2. Do that math over 69 possessions, and you’re looking at Hofstra scoring in the mid-to-high 70s. Meanwhile, Stony Brook’s 108.6 offensive rating against Hofstra’s 101.4 defensive mark projects to the high 60s, maybe touching 70. That’s an 8-10 point game right there, and we haven’t even factored in momentum.
Hofstra’s Situation
The Pride are rolling right now, winners of five straight, and they’re doing it with balanced, efficient offense. Cruz Davis is putting up 21.2 points per game, ranking 11th nationally, but he’s not just a volume scorer – he’s also dishing 5.1 assists per game (75th nationally). That dual-threat capability makes Hofstra’s offense incredibly difficult to defend. Add Preston Edmead’s 5.2 assists (65th nationally), and you’ve got two guards who can both score and create.
Hofstra’s shooting numbers tell the story of an offense that knows what it’s doing. Their 53.3% effective field goal percentage ranks 132nd, which is solid, and they’re taking care of the ball with just 11.9 turnovers per game (156th). That’s not just stat-padding – it’s why Hofstra can consistently generate quality looks and convert them into points.
The weakness? Rebounding. Hofstra’s 29.6% offensive rebounding rate ranks 239th, which means they’re not getting many second-chance opportunities. Against a Stony Brook team that’s not exactly dominating the glass themselves, though, this might not be the liability it could be against elite rebounding squads.
Stony Brook’s Situation
The Seawolves’ recent form is brutal: four losses in their last five games, including a 37-56 beatdown at Drexel and a 57-76 drubbing at William & Mary. Those aren’t just losses – they’re the kind of performances that indicate deeper problems. Erik Pratt is a legitimate scorer at 18.9 points per game (60th nationally), but he’s not getting enough help.
Stony Brook’s offensive struggles are real. Their 50.6% effective field goal percentage ranks 243rd, and their 42.9% field goal percentage sits at 291st nationally. That’s not just below average – it’s genuinely poor shooting. They’re not creating easy looks, they’re not converting when they get them, and their offensive rating of 108.6 ranks 226th.
The defense isn’t saving them either. While Stony Brook’s raw defensive rating of 99.2 looks decent at 79th nationally, their adjusted defensive efficiency tells a different story at 227th with a 109.9 mark. They’ve been getting lit up lately, allowing 75, 56, 76, and 62 points in their last four losses. That 56 points at Drexel? They only scored 37 themselves. This is an offense-starved team right now.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game lives and dies on Hofstra’s ability to exploit Stony Brook’s defensive weaknesses with their balanced, guard-heavy attack. The Pride have two guards who can both score and facilitate, and they’re facing a Seawolves defense that ranks 227th in adjusted defensive efficiency. That’s a recipe for Hofstra to move the ball, find open looks, and execute in the half-court.
The pace matchup favors Hofstra slightly. The Pride play at 69.2 possessions per game (157th), while Stony Brook operates at 68.3 (191st). This will be a controlled, half-court game, which actually benefits the more efficient team – and that’s Hofstra by a mile.
Here’s what I keep coming back to: Stony Brook’s offensive struggles against a Hofstra defense that ranks 73rd in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Seawolves are shooting 42.9% from the field (291st) and generating just 74.2 points per game (250th). Against a Hofstra defense that’s allowing 70.3 points per game (119th), Stony Brook’s going to have a hard time reaching 65 points. Meanwhile, Hofstra’s scoring 77.3 per game (184th) against a defense that allows opponents to shoot 41.3% (96th).
The historical context adds another layer: these teams have played tight games recently, but Stony Brook won two of the last three. Here’s the thing – those Hofstra teams weren’t riding five-game winning streaks with this kind of efficiency advantage. This Pride squad is different, and the numbers prove it.
My Play
The Pick: Hofstra -7.5 (-110) for 2 units
I’ve considered the road spot, the conference rivalry, and Stony Brook’s home court, and the efficiency gap is still too massive to ignore. Hofstra’s 11-point adjusted net efficiency advantage isn’t a small edge – it’s a chasm at the mid-major level. The Pride are playing their best basketball of the season, winners of five straight, while Stony Brook’s lost four of five and shown zero ability to score consistently.
The main risk here is if Hofstra comes out flat in a true road environment and lets Stony Brook hang around with free throws and defensive stops. Erik Pratt could also go nuclear and single-handedly keep the Seawolves in it. But I keep coming back to those adjusted efficiency numbers because they’re just too extreme to ignore. An 11-point gap with Hofstra’s offensive balance against Stony Brook’s defensive struggles? That’s a double-digit win more often than not.
I’m projecting Hofstra 76, Stony Brook 66. The Pride cover the 7.5, and they do it by controlling tempo, executing in the half-court, and making Stony Brook’s offense work for every bucket. This is the right side, and I’m laying the points with confidence.
