Houston Christian allows a staggering 38% from the arc, and now they walk into a buzzsaw that specializes in long-range shooting. Is UTRGV at -9.5 the easiest best bet of the Monday slate? Bash delivers the hard numbers.
The Setup: Houston Christian at UT Rio Grande Valley
UT Rio Grande Valley is laying 9.5 points at home against Houston Christian on Monday night, and frankly, this number feels light given what we’ve seen recently. The Vaqueros just demolished this same Houston Christian squad 68-51 three weeks ago, and the underlying metrics suggest that wasn’t a fluke. When you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, UTRGV holds a 6.8-point edge in adjusted net efficiency (3.4 vs. -3.4), and more importantly, they’re significantly better on the defensive end where this game will be decided. The Vaqueros rank 92nd nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency at 103.4, while Houston Christian sits at 260th with a 111.5 mark. That’s not a small gap—that’s the difference between a competent defensive unit and one that’s getting torched on a nightly basis.
Houston Christian comes in at 5-4, but let’s be real about what that record represents. They’re allowing opponents to shoot 47.3% from the field (329th nationally) and a staggering 38.0% from three (345th). Those are catastrophic defensive numbers, and they’re walking into a venue where UTRGV has won five straight games and is shooting 39.1% from deep, ranking 24th nationally in three-point percentage. The matchup matrix here screams UTRGV control.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: Houston Christian (5-4) @ UT Rio Grande Valley (3-5)
Date: February 2, 2026
Time: 7:30 PM ET
Venue: UTRGV Fieldhouse, Edinburg, TX
Spread: UT Rio Grande Valley -9.5
Total: 138.5
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
The market landed at 9.5, and I think there’s actually room for this to move higher. Let’s work through the math. UTRGV’s adjusted offensive efficiency sits at 106.8 against Houston Christian’s adjusted defensive efficiency of 111.5—that’s a projected offensive rating around 109-110 for the Vaqueros. Flip it: Houston Christian’s adjusted offensive efficiency of 108.1 against UTRGV’s adjusted defensive efficiency of 103.4 projects them around 104-105. Factor in home court advantage (typically worth 3-4 points in college basketball), and you’re looking at a raw projection in the 12-14 point range.
So why is the market at 9.5? Probably because UTRGV’s 3-5 record scares casual bettors, even though four of those five losses came against quality competition early in the season. The Vaqueros have now won five straight games, and they’re not just winning—they’re covering and dominating. That 17-point beatdown of Houston Christian three weeks ago? That happened on the road. Now they get them at home, where the UTRGV Fieldhouse has been a fortress.
The total at 138.5 also makes sense given the pace differential. Houston Christian plays at a 67.0 pace (242nd nationally) while UTRGV pushes it slightly more at 70.7 (112th). Split the difference, project around 69 possessions, and the efficiency numbers get you right around 140 points combined. The under has some appeal here given UTRGV’s defensive capabilities, but we’ll get to that.
Houston Christian Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
Let me be clear: Houston Christian doesn’t have much of an analytical edge here. Their only real advantage comes in the blocks department, where they average 4.4 per game (67th nationally) compared to UTRGV’s 2.8 (276th). That interior presence could matter if they can force UTRGV into contested shots around the rim, but here’s the problem—the Vaqueros don’t need to live in the paint. They’re bombing threes at a 39.1% clip, and Houston Christian has no answer for perimeter shooting.
The Huskies do have a capable backcourt. Kylin Green is dishing 5.8 assists per game (37th nationally), and Elijah Brooks leads the team at 14.0 points per contest. But Green’s shooting efficiency isn’t there—the team’s 31.0% from three (281st) is abysmal, and their 63.2% free throw percentage (346th) means they can’t even capitalize when they get to the line. That’s a recipe for offensive stagnation against a defense that ranks 125th in opponent field goal percentage at 42.1%.
Houston Christian’s turnover numbers are solid (11.1 per game, 100th nationally), so they won’t beat themselves with careless possessions. But when you’re shooting this poorly from distance and defending this poorly across the board, ball security alone won’t save you.
UT Rio Grande Valley Breakdown: The Counterpoint
UTRGV’s counterpoint is simple: they’re the better team on both ends of the floor, and the metrics prove it. That 39.1% three-point shooting (24th nationally) is elite, and it’s not a small sample fluke—they’re taking and making high-quality perimeter shots consistently. Koree Cotton and Marvin McGhee III provide a balanced scoring attack, and while neither is a dominant individual talent, the system works.
Defensively, this is where UTRGV separates itself. They’re holding opponents to 42.1% from the field (125th) and 32.2% from three (158th). Those are legitimately good numbers, especially in a conference like the Southland where offensive efficiency can vary wildly. The adjusted defensive efficiency of 103.4 (92nd nationally) tells you this isn’t just a function of weak competition—UTRGV can actually guard.
The pace advantage matters here too. UTRGV plays at 70.7 possessions per game compared to Houston Christian’s 67.0, and in a game where the Vaqueros are more efficient on both ends, more possessions favor the home team. They’ll push tempo when they can, force Houston Christian into uncomfortable defensive rotations, and exploit that 345th-ranked opponent three-point percentage defense all night long.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game gets decided on the perimeter, full stop. Houston Christian cannot defend the three-point line—they’re 345th nationally in opponent three-point percentage at 38.0%. UTRGV is 24th nationally in three-point percentage at 39.1%. That’s not a matchup—that’s a mismatch of catastrophic proportions. Every time UTRGV swings the ball and finds an open shooter, they’re getting a quality look against a defense that has no answer.
The head-to-head history backs this up. Three weeks ago, UTRGV went into Houston Christian’s building and won 68-51, holding the Huskies to just 51 points. That wasn’t a defensive slugfest where both teams struggled—that was UTRGV imposing their will defensively while getting enough offense to cruise. Now they get the rematch at home, where they’ve won five straight and are playing with legitimate confidence.
Houston Christian’s only path to covering involves getting hot from three themselves and hoping UTRGV goes cold. But banking on a team that shoots 31.0% from deep suddenly finding their stroke against a solid defense? That’s not a bet I’m making. The more likely scenario is UTRGV controls this from the opening tip, builds a comfortable lead by halftime, and cruises to a double-digit victory.
Bash’s Best Bet
I’m laying the 9.5 points with UT Rio Grande Valley, and I feel good about it. The efficiency gap is real, the matchup favors the home team, and the recent head-to-head result provides a clear blueprint for how this plays out. UTRGV won by 17 on the road three weeks ago—getting them at home laying less than 10 feels like a gift.
Houston Christian’s defensive liabilities are too severe to ignore, and UTRGV’s perimeter shooting is too potent to contain. The Vaqueros are riding a five-game winning streak, they’re playing at home, and they’ve already proven they can dominate this matchup. I expect a final margin in the 12-15 point range, which makes 9.5 a comfortable cover.
The Pick: UT Rio Grande Valley -9.5
