The market is laying 5.5 points with a Bobcats team that has won 13 of its last 14 against Idaho State, but the Bengals’ #40-ranked offensive rebounding rate suggests a live dog. This best bet analyzes if Idaho State’s interior presence can exploit Montana State’s lack of rim protection.
The Setup: Idaho State at Montana State
Montana State is laying 5.5 at home against Idaho State on Thursday night, and this number tells you everything about how the market views these two Big Sky squads. The Bobcats are sitting at 4-6 overall but riding a four-game winning streak, while the Bengals come in at 6-4 but have dropped two of their last three. When you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this spread makes perfect sense—these teams are virtually identical in adjusted net efficiency, separated by less than a point. Montana State checks in at +4.0 (#128) while Idaho State sits at +4.9 (#119). This isn’t about dominance. It’s about a home team catching a road opponent in a conference grinder, and the market is pricing in exactly that—nothing more, nothing less.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: Idaho State at Montana State
Date: January 22, 2026
Time: 9:00 PM ET
Venue: Worthington Arena, Bozeman, MT
Bovada:
Spread: Montana State -5
Total: 144
Moneyline: Available
DraftKings:
Spread: Montana State -5.5
Total: 144.5
Moneyline: Available
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
The 5.5-point spread reflects two things: home court advantage and recent form. Montana State’s adjusted offensive efficiency sits at 109.2 (#147) against Idaho State’s 110.2 (#129)—the Bengals actually have a slight edge offensively. Defensively? Montana State gets the nod at 105.2 (#119) compared to Idaho State’s 105.3 (#124). We’re talking razor-thin margins here.
The total of 144.5 is where things get interesting. Both teams crawl at a pace that would make paint dry seem exciting—Idaho State ranks #302 nationally at 64.6 possessions per game, while Montana State isn’t much better at 65.7 (#275). When you’ve got two teams playing in the low-to-mid 60s for pace, you need efficient offense to push totals. Both teams deliver there—Montana State posts a 116.3 offensive rating (#112) while Idaho State counters with 116.1 (#118). The math says we’re looking at somewhere between 140-148 points in a normal game script. The market landed right in the middle of that range, and I don’t see much reason to argue with it.
Idaho State Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
The Bengals do two things exceptionally well, and both matter in this matchup. First, they crash the offensive glass like their lives depend on it—35.6% offensive rebounding rate ranks #40 nationally. That’s elite, and it’s a massive weapon when you’re playing at a snail’s pace. Every extra possession matters when you’re only getting 65 of them.
Second, Idaho State protects the rim. They rank #46 in blocks per game at 4.7, led by their frontcourt presence. Caleb Van De Griend leads the way at 14.0 points and 7.1 rebounds per game, while Connor Hollenbeck adds 12.8 points and 4.6 boards. This is a team built around interior play, and they defend the paint accordingly—they’ve allowed just 43.0% from the field (#160) and hold opponents to 32.7% from three (#181).
The problem? They can’t shoot from distance themselves. Idaho State ranks #233 in three-point percentage at just 32.3%, and they don’t assist much either—13.3 assists per game ranks #250 nationally. This is a grind-it-out team that needs to win ugly.
Montana State Breakdown: The Counterpoint
Montana State shoots the basketball at a level Idaho State can’t match. The Bobcats hit 48.3% from the field (#66) and 36.3% from three (#83), creating an effective field goal percentage of 56.8% that ranks #47 nationally. They’ve got three guards who can all fill it up—Davian Brown leads at 14.4 points per game, Patrick McMahon adds 14.2, and Jed Miller chips in 12.9. This is a balanced, guard-oriented attack that spaces the floor.
Where Montana State separates itself is three-point defense. They hold opponents to just 29.3% from deep, ranking #54 nationally. That’s crucial against a team like Idaho State that already struggles from distance. The Bobcats force you to beat them inside, and while they’re not great on the defensive glass—29.0% offensive rebounding rate allowed ranks just #264—they make up for it by limiting quality looks.
The concern is interior defense. Montana State ranks #295 in blocks per game at just 2.6, and they allow 45.4% shooting from the field (#271). Idaho State lives in the paint and on the offensive glass, which plays directly into Montana State’s weakness.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game comes down to one simple question: Can Idaho State win the rebounding battle badly enough to offset Montana State’s shooting advantage? The Bengals rank #40 in offensive rebounding rate while the Bobcats rank #264 in defensive rebounding. That’s a massive gap, and it should translate to extra possessions for Idaho State. But here’s the catch—those extra possessions only matter if you can convert them efficiently.
Montana State’s perimeter defense against Idaho State’s three-point shooting is another mismatch worth watching. The Bobcats rank #54 in opponent three-point percentage while Idaho State ranks #233 in three-point shooting. That’s a recipe for Idaho State settling for contested jumpers they can’t make, which leads to long rebounds and transition opportunities for Montana State.
The pace favors Idaho State’s style. Both teams want to slow it down, but the Bengals are more comfortable in rock fights. They’ve got the defensive rating edge at 105.7 (#179) compared to Montana State’s 102.3 (#128)—wait, that’s backwards. Montana State actually defends better overall. That’s a problem for Idaho State’s offensive approach.
Look at the recent results. Montana State has won four straight, including quality road wins at Northern Colorado and Eastern Washington. Idaho State just got boat-raced by Eastern Washington 66-84. Momentum matters in conference play, and the Bobcats have it.
Bash’s Best Bet
Montana State -5.5
I’m laying the points with the home team. Yes, Idaho State will crash the glass and muck this game up. Yes, they’ll get extra possessions. But Montana State shoots too well and defends the three-point line too effectively for Idaho State to keep pace. The Bengals can’t make enough outside shots to force Montana State out of their defensive scheme, and that’s going to be the difference.
The Bobcats are 4-0 in their last four games for a reason—they’re playing their best basketball of the season at home. Idaho State is 1-2 in their last three and just got demolished by a team Montana State beat on the road. The efficiency numbers are virtually identical, which means home court becomes the tiebreaker. Give me Montana State to win by 7-9 in a game that stays under the total.
Final Score Prediction: Montana State 74, Idaho State 66
