The Northern Colorado Bears host Idaho State as 3.5-point favorites, and with Quinn Denker leading an elite offense, our ATS pick evaluates if the Bears can halt their recent conference slide.
The Setup: Idaho State at Northern Colorado
Northern Colorado’s sitting at -3.5 at home against Idaho State, and at first glance, this looks like a classic Big Sky toss-up between two teams separated by just three spots in the adjusted efficiency rankings at collegebasketballdata.com. The Bears are 9-1, the Bengals are 6-4, and we’re getting a short number in a conference game. Seems straightforward, right?
Here’s the thing – when you dig into what’s actually happening on the court, this line doesn’t tell the whole story. Northern Colorado’s 9-1 record is impressive, but they just dropped four straight games, including losses to Montana, Montana State, Denver, and Texas Tech. Meanwhile, Idaho State’s 6-4 mark includes some quality performances in a brutal early schedule. The adjusted efficiency numbers from collegebasketballdata.com show these teams are virtually identical – both ranked #129 in adjusted offensive efficiency at 110.2, and separated by just two spots defensively (Idaho State #124 at 105.3, Northern Colorado #129 at 105.5).
Let me walk you through why this number is too short, and why I’m backing the road dog in this Big Sky clash.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: Idaho State at Northern Colorado
Date: January 8, 2026
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Venue: Bank of Colorado Arena, Greeley, CO
Spread: Northern Colorado -3.5 (DraftKings) / -3 (Bovada)
Total: 154.5 (DraftKings) / 153.5 (Bovada)
Moneyline: Northern Colorado -130, Idaho State +110
Why This Number Doesn’t Make Sense
The efficiency gap here is essentially non-existent. Both teams sit at 4.7-4.9 in adjusted net efficiency according to collegebasketballdata.com, ranking #119 and #122 respectively. That’s the kind of separation that typically produces a pick’em on a neutral court. So we’re paying three to three-and-a-half points for home court advantage.
Here’s why that’s problematic: Northern Colorado just lost four consecutive games, and the offensive numbers that made them dangerous early in the season are starting to crack under pressure. Yes, they rank #42 nationally in scoring at 87.4 points per game, but that’s been inflated by a soft early schedule. Their raw offensive rating of 121.4 (#62) looks great until you realize their adjusted offensive efficiency of 110.2 suggests they’re a completely average offensive team when you account for competition quality.
The real kicker? Both teams play at virtually the same glacial pace – Idaho State at 64.6 possessions per game (#302 nationally) and Northern Colorado at 64.9 (#296). That’s critical because it means fewer possessions to work with, and in a game that might see just 65 total possessions, a three-and-a-half point spread represents a significantly larger percentage of the final margin. Do that math over 65 possessions, and you’re asking Northern Colorado to be roughly 5-6% more efficient per possession than Idaho State. The adjusted numbers say these teams are dead even.
Idaho State’s Situation
The Bengals bring some legitimate strengths to Greeley that don’t show up in their 6-4 record. Start with their defense, which ranks #80 nationally in points allowed at just 68.2 per game. That’s not just a solid number – it’s why Idaho State has been competitive against quality opponents. Their defensive rating of 105.7 and adjusted defensive efficiency of 105.3 (#124) show they can get stops when it matters.
Offensively, Caleb Van De Griend leads the way at 14.0 points and 7.1 rebounds per game, ranking #408 and #169 nationally in those categories. Connor Hollenbeck adds 12.8 points (#570), and here’s what matters: this team ranks #40 nationally in offensive rebounding percentage at 35.6%. Against a Northern Colorado team that ranks #347 in defensive rebounding (just 24.9% offensive rebound rate allowed), that’s a massive advantage on the glass.
The concern is three-point shooting – just 32.3% (#233) on the season. But in a slow-paced game where possessions are precious, Idaho State’s ability to generate second-chance opportunities becomes even more valuable.
Northern Colorado’s Situation
The Bears’ 9-1 start looks impressive until you realize they’ve lost four straight, and the competition level just jumped significantly. Quinn Denker is a legitimate weapon at 17.3 points and 6.1 assists per game, ranking #118 and #22 nationally in those categories. Brock Wisne (14.3 PPG, #377) and Zach Bloch (13.9 PPG, #421) provide scoring punch.
Northern Colorado’s shooting numbers are elite – 50.3% from the field (#32), 37.9% from three (#34), and a ridiculous 59.4% effective field goal percentage (#14). They also rank #5 nationally in opponent three-point percentage at just 24.6%, which is legitimately elite perimeter defense.
But here’s the problem: they can’t rebound. That #347 ranking in offensive rebounding percentage is brutal, and they rank just #147 in total rebounds per game at 37.7. Against Idaho State’s #40-ranked offensive rebounding attack, that’s a recipe for extended possessions and second-chance points for the Bengals.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game lives and dies on the glass and the three-point line. Idaho State’s 35.6% offensive rebounding rate against Northern Colorado’s weak defensive rebounding creates a significant advantage. In a 65-possession game, that could mean 6-8 extra possessions for the Bengals. If they convert even half of those at their 116.1 offensive rating, that’s an additional 6-8 points right there.
Northern Colorado’s counter is their elite three-point shooting (37.9%, #34) against Idaho State’s mediocre perimeter defense (32.7% allowed, #181). But here’s the thing – the Bears’ recent shooting has fallen off during this four-game losing streak. Without detailed game-by-game splits, we can see the results: losses to Montana, Montana State, Denver, and Texas Tech suggest the shooting isn’t as consistent as the season-long numbers indicate.
I keep coming back to those rebounding numbers because they’re just too extreme to ignore. A 35.6% offensive rebounding rate (#40) against a team ranked #347 in defensive rebounding creates a fundamental mismatch. In a slow-paced game, those extra possessions become exponentially more valuable.
The pace matchup also favors Idaho State’s style. Both teams want to grind, but the Bengals are actually slightly slower and more comfortable in rock fights. Their defensive rating of 105.7 shows they can win ugly games, and that’s exactly what this projects to be.
My Play
Idaho State +3.5 (-110) for 2 units
The adjusted efficiency numbers from collegebasketballdata.com tell us these teams are essentially identical, and we’re getting three-and-a-half points with the road team that has a massive rebounding advantage and a defense that can keep this game tight. Northern Colorado’s four-game losing streak suggests they’re not the same team that started 9-1, and I’m not paying a premium for home court when the underlying numbers say this should be a pick’em.
The main risk here is if Northern Colorado’s shooting gets hot from three and they can overcome their rebounding deficiency with pure efficiency. At 37.9% from deep, they’re capable of going nuclear. But I’ve considered all of that, and the rebounding edge is still too massive to ignore in a game that will feature roughly 65 possessions.
I’m projecting Northern Colorado 76, Idaho State 74 – a game that comes down to the final possession, making that 3.5-point cushion extremely valuable. Give me the Bengals and the points in what should be a grinding, physical Big Sky battle.
