Is a 4-point cushion enough for a low-tempo Idaho State team? Bash asks if the Vandals can push the pace and force the Bengals out of their comfort zone. This prediction targets the contrast between Idaho’s shooting and the Bengals’ glass dominance.
The Setup: Idaho at Idaho State
Idaho State is laying 3.5 to 4 points at home against Idaho in a Big Sky Conference battle, and here’s my thoughts – this number feels on the lowish side when you first glance at the adjusted efficiency data from collegebasketballdata.com. The Bengals check in at #119 in adjusted net efficiency (4.9) while the Vandals sit at #132 (3.5). But before we get too excited about hammering the home favorite, let me walk you through why this spread is tighter than you might expect.
This is a fascinating contrast in styles. Idaho plays at a significantly faster pace (69.2 possessions per game, #157 nationally) compared to Idaho State’s methodical approach (64.6, #302). That’s nearly five extra possessions per game for the Vandals, and in a game where both teams are fairly evenly matched from an efficiency standpoint, those extra possessions matter. The Bengals have the better defensive profile (#124 in adjusted defensive efficiency versus #201 for Idaho), but the Vandals counter with superior offensive firepower (#97 in adjusted offensive efficiency versus #129). Something’s gotta give.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: Idaho (6-3) at Idaho State (6-4)
Date: January 15, 2026
Time: 9:00 PM ET
Venue: Reed Arena, College Station, TX
Spread: Idaho State -3.5 (DraftKings) / -4 (Bovada)
Total: 148.5
Moneyline: Idaho State -170 / Idaho +145
Why This Number Makes Sense
Let’s dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers because they tell us exactly why this line isn’t bigger. Idaho State holds a slight edge in adjusted net efficiency, but we’re talking about 1.4 points – that’s razor thin. The Bengals’ advantage comes almost entirely from their defensive side of the ball, where they rank #124 in adjusted defensive efficiency (105.3) compared to Idaho’s #201 ranking (108.7). That’s a real 3.4-point gap in defensive quality.
But here’s where it gets interesting: Idaho actually has the better offense. The Vandals rank #97 in adjusted offensive efficiency (112.2) while Idaho State sits at #129 (110.2). That’s a two-point swing in Idaho’s favor. When you’re trying to project a spread, you’re essentially calculating the offensive efficiency gap minus the defensive efficiency gap, then adjusting for home court. Do that math here, and you get a near wash before we even factor in venue.
The shooting profiles tell a more compelling story about why Idaho can hang. The Vandals rank #60 nationally in three-point percentage (37.0%) and boast an effective field goal percentage that ranks #63 (56.1%). Idaho State? They’re #233 in three-point shooting at just 32.3%. That’s not just a five-percentage-point gap – it’s the difference between a team that can punish you from deep and one that struggles to stretch the floor. Over 65-70 possessions, that shooting gap alone could account for 8-10 points.
Idaho’s Situation
The Vandals come in riding momentum from a wild 92-89 win over Montana State, and their offensive profile is legitimately dangerous. Kristian Gonzalez leads the way at 18.0 points per game, with Jackson Rasmussen adding 14.8 (#319 nationally). But it’s the shooting efficiency that jumps off the page – Idaho ranks #57 in true shooting percentage (60.3%), which means they’re converting their attempts into points at an elite level.
The concern? Defense and rebounding. Idaho ranks #296 in offensive rebounding percentage (27.9%), which means they’re not generating many second-chance opportunities. Against an Idaho State team that ranks #40 in offensive rebounding percentage (35.6%), that’s a problem. The Bengals are going to crash the glass hard, and Idaho doesn’t have the size or positioning to keep them off the offensive boards. They’re also #321 in steals per game (5.4) and dead last at #343 in blocks (1.8). This isn’t a team that’s going to generate easy transition buckets off turnovers.
Recent form shows a team that’s been in shootouts – five of their last five games have been decided by five points or fewer. They can score with anyone, but they’re also allowing 72.0 points per game (#153), which isn’t exactly lockdown defense.
Idaho State’s Situation
The Bengals are the inverse of Idaho in many ways. They grind you down with defense (allowing just 68.2 points per game, #80 nationally) and control the glass. That #40 ranking in offensive rebounding percentage is massive – at 35.6%, they’re creating extra possessions on nearly a third of their misses. Caleb Van De Griend (14.0 PPG, 7.1 RPG, #169 nationally in rebounding) is the engine here, and Connor Hollenbeck adds 12.8 points and 4.6 boards.
But here’s what worries me about laying points with Idaho State: they can’t shoot from three. That #233 ranking in three-point percentage (32.3%) is a real liability against a team that defends the arc reasonably well (Idaho holds opponents to 33.2%, #208). The Bengals rank #46 in blocks per game (4.7), so they protect the rim, but their perimeter defense isn’t special (#181 in opponent three-point percentage at 32.7%).
The pace differential is also working against them. Idaho State wants to slow this game down to 65 possessions or fewer, but Idaho’s going to push tempo whenever possible. When the Bengals play faster teams, their defensive efficiency can slip because they’re not built to defend in transition.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game lives and dies on the rebounding battle and whether Idaho can maintain their shooting efficiency. Idaho State’s #40 ranking in offensive rebounding versus Idaho’s #296 ranking is an 8-percentage-point gap. Over 65 possessions with roughly 40 missed shots, that’s an extra 3-4 offensive rebounds for the Bengals, which translates to 4-6 additional points. That’s real.
But I keep coming back to those three-point shooting numbers because they’re just too extreme to ignore. Idaho at 37.0% (#60) versus Idaho State at 32.3% (#233) is a chasm. If both teams attempt 20 threes (reasonable given the pace), Idaho makes 7-8 while Idaho State makes 6-7. That’s a 3-6 point swing right there, and it directly offsets the rebounding advantage.
The tempo battle is fascinating. Idaho averages 69.2 possessions while Idaho State sits at 64.6. The actual pace will likely split the difference around 67 possessions. At that number, Idaho’s superior offensive efficiency (#89 in offensive rating versus #118 for Idaho State) suggests they’ll score 1.5-2 points per 100 possessions more efficiently. Over 67 possessions, that’s negligible – maybe 1-1.5 points.
Here’s the matchup that seals it for me: Idaho’s Kolton Mitchell (4.0 assists per game, #163 nationally) versus Idaho State’s perimeter defense. Mitchell is the facilitator who gets Idaho’s shooters clean looks. If he can create 3-4 open threes for Gonzalez and Rasmussen, this game stays tight because Idaho State doesn’t have the offensive firepower to pull away.
My Play
I’m taking Idaho +4 for 2 units. The main risk here is if Idaho State dominates the glass like their metrics suggest they should and turns those offensive rebounds into 8-10 second-chance points. I’ve considered all of that, and the shooting gap is still too massive to ignore. Idaho’s ability to knock down threes at a 37% clip against a team that struggles from deep gives them the equalizer they need.
I’m projecting this game around Idaho State 74, Idaho 72. The Bengals get the win at home, but four points is just too many when the adjusted efficiency gap is only 1.4 points and Idaho has the superior offensive profile. This feels like a possession game throughout, and in those tight Big Sky battles, the team that can make shots from the perimeter usually covers even if they don’t win outright.
Give me the Vandals catching four. Let’s cash it.
