Indiana enters tonight’s contest ranking #20 nationally in adjusted net efficiency, a stark contrast to a Rutgers squad currently sitting at #220. Our prediction hinges on whether the Hoosiers’ elite defensive rating of 97.0 can stifle a Rutgers offense that ranks in the bottom third of major conference play.
The Setup: Indiana at Rutgers
Indiana’s laying 6.5 to 7 points at Rutgers, and if you’re scratching your head wondering why a 7-2 team is getting this kind of respect on the road against a .500 squad, you haven’t been paying attention to the efficiency metrics. The Hoosiers check in at #20 nationally in adjusted net efficiency according to collegebasketballdata.com, while Rutgers sits at #220. That’s not a gap—that’s a chasm. Indiana’s adjusted offensive efficiency of 116.7 (#47) paired with an adjusted defensive rating of 97.0 (#20) tells you everything about why this number opened where it did. This isn’t about records. It’s about Indiana being a legitimately elite defensive team that can score efficiently, facing a Rutgers squad that struggles to do either consistently. The market’s not disrespecting the Scarlet Knights—it’s respecting what Indiana does on both ends of the floor.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Date: January 23, 2026
Time: 6:00 PM ET
Location: Jersey Mike’s Arena, Piscataway, NJ
Spread: Indiana -6.5 (DraftKings) / -7 (Bovada)
Total: 147.5 (DraftKings) / 148 (Bovada)
Records: Indiana 7-2, Rutgers 5-5
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
Let’s start with the spread. A 23.5-point gap in adjusted net efficiency typically translates to roughly 7-8 points on a neutral court, so getting Indiana at 6.5 to 7 on the road at Rutgers actually feels about right when you factor in home court advantage. The Hoosiers’ defensive rating of 93.9 (#29) in raw terms and 97.0 (#20) adjusted shows they’re elite on that end regardless of opponent. Rutgers, meanwhile, sits at 108.9 in defensive rating (#230) and 109.6 adjusted (#218)—that’s bottom-third territory in major conference play.
The total at 147.5 to 148 is where things get interesting. Indiana plays at a pace of 70.7 (#112), while Rutgers crawls at 66.6 (#251). When the slower team controls tempo at home, you’d expect this game to settle into the mid-60s possession range. Apply Indiana’s offensive rating of 120.9 and Rutgers’ defensive rating of 108.9, then flip it with Rutgers’ offensive rating of 104.8 against Indiana’s defensive rating of 93.9, and you’re looking at something closer to 145 total points. The market’s basically pricing in Jersey Mike’s Arena playing tight and Indiana’s defense traveling well. I don’t hate that logic.
Indiana Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
Indiana’s calling card is efficiency on both ends. That 61.1% true shooting percentage (#39) and 56.9% effective field goal percentage (#44) means they’re not just scoring—they’re scoring efficiently. Tucker DeVries leads at 17.8 points per game, but this is a balanced attack with five guys averaging double figures. The 19.3 assists per game (#14) combined with just 9.8 turnovers (#25) gives them a turnover ratio of 0.1 (#17)—that’s elite ball security.
Defensively, they’re suffocating. Opponents shoot just 38.5% from the field (#28) and 32.8% from three (#185). The Hoosiers don’t generate a ton of steals or blocks, but they don’t need to—they just make everything difficult. Here’s the concern: they’re 1-4 in their last five games. That Nebraska loss at home and getting boat-raced at Michigan State raises questions about whether this team’s figured out Big Ten play yet. The efficiency numbers say they’re elite. The recent results say they’re struggling to put it together.
Rutgers Breakdown: The Counterpoint
Rutgers is what happens when you can’t shoot and can’t defend consistently. That 41.7% field goal percentage (#315) and 47.5% effective field goal percentage (#323) means they’re struggling to generate quality looks. The 11.3 assists per game (#334) tells you the ball’s sticking—this isn’t a fluid offense. Dylan Grant leads at 14.9 points per game, but after him and Tariq Francis at 11.8, the scoring dries up fast.
The defensive numbers are equally concerning. Opponents shoot 43.6% from the field (#189) and a brutal 37.4% from three (#335)—that’s bottom-ten nationally in three-point defense. The 33.9% offensive rebounding rate (#92) is their one saving grace, giving them second-chance opportunities when the initial offense breaks down. At home, they’ve shown flashes—that 88-85 win over Oregon proves they can score in the right matchup. But against elite defenses? That 55-81 loss at Illinois is more representative of what happens when they face length and discipline.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game comes down to whether Rutgers can generate enough offensive rebounding and second-chance points to overcome their shooting deficiencies against Indiana’s elite defense. The Scarlet Knights rank #92 in offensive rebounding percentage while Indiana sits at #343—that’s a legitimate advantage for the home team. If Rutgers can turn this into a rock fight in the low 60s possession-wise and crash the glass, they’ve got a puncher’s chance.
But here’s the problem: Indiana’s offensive efficiency is too good. Even in a slower game, the Hoosiers’ 116.7 adjusted offensive rating means they’ll find ways to score. Rutgers’ 109.6 adjusted defensive rating suggests they’ll give up points in bunches when facing competent offenses. The pace favors Rutgers, but the efficiency gap is too wide. Indiana’s also elite at protecting the ball—that 9.8 turnovers per game means Rutgers won’t get easy transition buckets off live-ball turnovers.
The three-point line is where Indiana can break this open. Rutgers ranks #335 in opponent three-point percentage, and while Indiana’s not elite from deep at 36.2% (#88), they’re competent enough to exploit that weakness. If Tucker DeVries and Lamar Wilkerson get going from the perimeter, this could get ugly fast.
Bash’s Best Bet
I’m laying the points with Indiana -6.5. Yeah, they’re 1-4 in their last five, but those losses came against quality opponents, and the efficiency metrics still scream elite team working through growing pains. Rutgers’ defensive deficiencies—particularly that #335 ranking in opponent three-point percentage—are too glaring against a team that moves the ball as well as Indiana does.
The adjusted efficiency gap of 23.5 points is massive, and even accounting for home court, Indiana should win this by double digits. I’d play it down to -7, but I prefer the -6.5 if you can find it. Rutgers will crash the glass and keep it respectable for stretches, but Indiana’s defense travels, and their offensive efficiency will eventually break through. Give me the Hoosiers on the road in a game that finishes somewhere around 78-68.
