The “Cy-Hawk” rivalry usually implies a close, emotional battle, but the advanced metrics tell a completely different story for this year’s clash at Hilton Coliseum. With Iowa State ranking #4 nationally in net efficiency and Iowa playing at the slowest pace in our dataset, the 11.5-point spread might actually be undervalued. We break down the pace-adjusted stats and rebounding disparities to find the smart play for Thursday night.
The Setup: Iowa at Iowa State
Iowa State’s laying 11.5 to 12.5 points against Iowa at Hilton Coliseum, and if you’re thinking “that’s a lot of points in a rivalry game,” I get it. These in-state battles are supposed to be tight, chippy affairs where emotion trumps talent. Here’s the thing – this isn’t a rivalry game in the traditional sense anymore. This is a top-five national efficiency machine hosting a Big Ten team that plays at a glacial pace and just got boat-raced by Michigan State two games ago. Let me walk you through why this number not only makes sense, but might actually be a gift for Iowa State backers.
According to collegebasketballdata.com, Iowa State ranks #4 nationally in adjusted net efficiency at +31.9, while Iowa checks in at #34 with a +16.2 mark. That’s a 15.7-point gap in the most predictive metric we have. When you factor in home court and a massive pace differential that actually favors the more efficient team, this spread starts looking very reasonable.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: Iowa at Iowa State
Date: December 11, 2025
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Location: Hilton Coliseum, Ames, IA
Spread: Iowa State -11.5 to -12.5
Total: 143.5
Why This Number Makes Sense
The efficiency gap here is just too extreme to ignore. Iowa State’s adjusted offensive efficiency ranks #2 nationally at 126.6, while their adjusted defensive efficiency sits at #7 at 94.7. That’s elite on both ends. Iowa? They’re #27 offensively at 119.2 and #85 defensively at 103.0. Those are solid numbers, but we’re comparing very good to absolutely elite.
Here’s where it gets interesting for the spread: Iowa plays at the 358th-fastest pace in the country at just 58.3 possessions per game. That’s dead last territory. Iowa State operates at 71.6 possessions (#85 nationally). In Hilton Coliseum, Iowa State controls the tempo, and they’re going to push this game into the mid-to-high 60s in terms of possessions. Do that math over 68 possessions, and that 15.7-point efficiency gap translates almost perfectly to this 11.5 to 12.5-point spread.
But it’s not just the efficiency numbers – it’s how these teams generate offense. Iowa State shoots 54.9% from the field (#1 nationally) and 43.8% from three (#3). Their effective field goal percentage of 62.8% ranks #3 in the country. Iowa’s defense allows 43.6% shooting and 31.5% from three, which are respectable marks (#189 and #133), but they haven’t seen an offense this efficient and diverse all season.
Iowa’s Situation
Iowa’s 8-1 record looks impressive until you examine how they’ve built it. They rank #12 nationally in true shooting percentage at 63.7% and #14 in effective field goal percentage at 59.4%. Bennett Stirtz is a legitimate scorer at 18.8 points per game, and Iowa’s offensive rating of 137.0 (#12) shows they can put up points in their system.
The problem? That system requires controlling pace and grinding teams down. Iowa’s 58.3 possessions per game is the slowest in our dataset, and when they got pushed out of their comfort zone at Michigan State, they managed just 52 points in a 19-point loss. They followed that up with a 59-46 win at Grand Canyon – a game that perfectly illustrates their style.
Iowa’s rebounding is a massive concern. They rank #353 in rebounds per game at just 30.0, with an offensive rebounding percentage of 28.9% (#267). Against Iowa State’s length and athleticism, second-chance opportunities will be nearly impossible to generate. That’s not just a rebounding problem – it’s why Iowa will struggle to generate the 55-58 possessions they need to keep this game close.
Iowa State’s Situation
Iowa State is 9-0 and playing like a legitimate national championship contender. They just went into Mackey Arena and beat Purdue 81-58, holding the Boilermakers to their lowest output of the season. That defensive performance (#7 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency) combined with their #2-ranked offense creates matchup nightmares.
The Cyclones have three legitimate weapons: Milan Momcilovic (18.3 PPG), Joshua Jefferson (17.6 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 5.4 APG), and Tamin Lipsey (16.8 PPG, 5.7 APG). Jefferson’s playmaking from the forward spot is particularly devastating – he ranks #46 nationally in assists per game from the frontcourt. That’s elite vision that creates the open threes Iowa State converts at a 43.8% clip.
Iowa State forces 11.1 steals per game (#7 nationally) and converts those turnovers into 236 points off turnovers through nine games. They score 133 fast break points compared to Iowa’s 73. In transition, this isn’t even close. Iowa State’s 94.6 points per game (#9 nationally) isn’t empty calories against cupcakes – they’re scoring 81 at Purdue, 78 against Creighton, and 83 at St. John’s in true road environments.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game lives and dies on whether Iowa can impose their pace or if Iowa State forces them into the mid-60s possession range. History and home court strongly favor Iowa State. In Hilton Coliseum, the Cyclones will pressure full court with those 11.1 steals per game, and Iowa’s 10.0 turnovers per game will likely increase against this defensive intensity.
The three-point shooting matchup seals it for me. Iowa State shoots 43.8% from deep (#3) while Iowa allows 31.5% (#133). That’s a massive advantage. Meanwhile, Iowa shoots 37.7% from three (#41) against an Iowa State defense that allows 33.0% (#197). Over 25-30 three-point attempts, that’s a 10-12 point swing right there.
I keep coming back to those rebounding numbers because they’re just too extreme to ignore. Iowa ranks #353 in rebounds per game, and Iowa State ranks #105 in offensive rebounding percentage at 33.4%. Every Iowa miss is likely to become an Iowa State possession, extending the gap in total possessions and amplifying the efficiency advantage.
The historical context matters too. Iowa State won 89-80 in Iowa City last year and 90-65 in Ames two years ago. These aren’t coin-flip games anymore – Iowa State has established clear dominance.
My Play
Iowa State -11.5 or -12.5 for 2 units
I’m laying the points with Iowa State, and I’d play this up to -13 if necessary. The efficiency gap is 15.7 points, home court is worth 3-4 points, and Iowa State controls the pace variable that could extend this margin even further. I’m projecting Iowa State 84, Iowa 68, which covers both numbers comfortably.
The main risk here is if Iowa somehow grinds this into a 58-possession rock fight and keeps it close through sheer pace control. I’ve considered all of that, and the talent gap is still too massive to ignore. Iowa State’s defense is too good, their offense too diverse, and their home court advantage at Hilton Coliseum too significant.
This is a statement game for Iowa State against a Big Ten opponent, and they’re going to make that statement emphatically. Give me the Cyclones laying the points.
