The market is testing the limits of this A-10 spread, but the statistical evidence for a blowout is overwhelming. Bash explains why Loyola’s inability to generate defensive havoc—ranking dead last in steals—makes Bash’s free pick on Dayton a clear choice for those ignoring the reputation of the first meeting.
The Setup: Loyola Chicago at Dayton
Dayton’s laying 17.5 points at home against Loyola Chicago, and if you’re squinting at that number wondering if the market’s gone mad, I get it. But here’s the thing—when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this isn’t some absurd overreaction. The Flyers sit at #98 nationally with a +7.4 adjusted net efficiency, while Loyola limps in at #342 with a brutal -17.3 mark. That’s a 24.7-point efficiency gap, folks. The market’s not crazy here—it’s actually being conservative. Dayton already beat this team two weeks ago by two points in Chicago, and now they’re bringing them back to UD Arena where the Flyers have been a different animal. The question isn’t whether Dayton should be favored big—it’s whether 17.5 is enough.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: Loyola Chicago (3-7) at Dayton (7-3)
Date: January 16, 2026
Time: 8:30 PM ET
Venue: UD Arena, Dayton, OH
Conference: Atlantic 10
Spread: Dayton -17.5
Total: 142.5
Moneyline: Dayton -3500, Loyola Chicago +1150
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
Let’s talk about how we got to 17.5, because the efficiency story here is damning for the Ramblers. Dayton’s adjusted offensive rating sits at 110.0 (#133) while their adjusted defensive rating checks in at 102.6 (#76). That’s a top-80 defense nationally, and they’re generating 9.8 steals per game (#28)—elite ball pressure that turns into easy buckets. Now flip to Loyola: 103.1 adjusted offensive (#263) and a nightmare 120.4 adjusted defensive rating (#360). That defensive number ranks 360th in the country. Read that again. They can’t stop anybody.
The pace matchup actually favors Dayton’s ability to cover. Loyola crawls at 63.4 possessions per game (#319), but Dayton plays at 67.1 (#235) and forces tempo with their pressure defense. When the Flyers can dictate pace and generate transition opportunities—130 fast break points compared to Loyola’s 77—they’re going to create the separation this spread requires. The total at 142.5 feels about right given Loyola’s glacial pace, but that spread? The market’s telling you Dayton wins this by 20-plus, and the numbers back it up.
Loyola Chicago Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
I’m searching for something positive to say about this Loyola team, and the cupboard’s pretty bare. They rank #335 nationally in scoring at just 67.6 points per game, and their 42.2% field goal percentage (#309) suggests they’re struggling to generate quality looks. Justin Moore leads the way at 12.6 points per game with a solid 4.8 assists, and Miles Rubin gives them 12.4 points and 6.7 boards inside. That’s your entire offense right there.
The one semi-bright spot? They block shots at a decent clip with 4.5 per game (#63), and their opponent field goal percentage of 43.8% (#200) isn’t catastrophic. But here’s the killer: they’re allowing 38.2% from three-point range (#347), which ranks 347th in the country. They can’t defend the perimeter, and their 3.6 steals per game (#364) tells you they’re not creating any havoc defensively. They’ve lost four straight, including a 35-point beatdown at George Washington. This is a broken team right now.
Dayton Breakdown: The Counterpoint
Dayton’s got the horses to run Loyola out of the gym. Javon Bennett drops 16.2 points per game while De’Shayne Montgomery adds 15.4 with 5.3 boards. That’s a dynamic backcourt that can attack in multiple ways, and they’re supported by Amaël L’Etang’s 12.4 points and 6.2 rebounds from the forward spot. The Flyers shoot 46.0% from the field (#152) and post a 58.3% true shooting percentage (#102)—top-100 efficiency when you account for threes and free throws.
But here’s what really matters: Dayton’s defensive identity. That #28 ranking in steals per game isn’t a fluke—they’re getting after it on every possession, and they’ve converted that pressure into 191 points off turnovers compared to Loyola’s 88. The Flyers rank #96 in defensive rating at 100.3, which means they’re holding teams well below their usual output. They just beat George Washington by seven at home and won at Duquesne by six. They’re battle-tested and rolling.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game gets decided in the first ten minutes, and here’s why: Dayton’s pressure defense against Loyola’s anemic offense is a recipe for an early blowout. The Ramblers turn it over 12.0 times per game, and when you’re facing the 28th-ranked steal team in the country at their place, that number’s going up. Dayton’s going to force turnovers, convert them into transition buckets, and build a double-digit lead before Loyola even settles in.
The rebounding battle slightly favors Loyola with a 30.7% offensive rebounding rate (#195) compared to Dayton’s 27.4% (#312), but that’s fool’s gold. When you’re shooting 42.2% from the field, those offensive boards are just delaying the inevitable. Dayton’s going to control tempo, push the pace past Loyola’s comfort zone, and exploit that 360th-ranked adjusted defense relentlessly.
The head-to-head history shows Dayton won by two in Chicago just two weeks ago, 70-68. But that was on the road in a tight conference game where Loyola had everything to play for. Now? The Ramblers have lost four straight and they’re walking into a hostile UD Arena environment where Dayton’s been dominant. The Flyers know they should’ve won by more in that first meeting, and they’re going to make a statement here.
Bash’s Best Bet
I’m laying the 17.5 points with Dayton, and I’m not losing sleep over it. The efficiency gap is massive, the matchup favors the home team in every conceivable way, and Loyola’s shown zero ability to compete against quality A-10 opponents. That 35-point loss at George Washington wasn’t an aberration—it’s who they are right now. Dayton’s defensive pressure will create early separation, and once they get rolling in transition, this thing gets ugly fast.
The total at 142.5 is interesting given Loyola’s pace, but I’m staying away. My focus is on Dayton covering this number, and I expect them to win by 22-25 points. Sometimes the market hands you a gift, and this is one of those times. Take the Flyers and don’t look back.
The Pick: Dayton -17.5
