DePaul has been a reliable home cover all season, but are they finally ready to sweep the floor with a reeling Marquette team? Bash asks if the Blue Demons’ defensive grit can ruin the best bet for a Marquette squad that has historically owned this series with six straight wins.
The Setup: Marquette at DePaul
DePaul’s laying 2.5 to 3.5 points at home against Marquette on Friday night, and honestly, this line feels about right when you peel back the efficiency numbers. The Golden Eagles come limping into Wintrust Arena at 5-5, having lost four of their last five including a 24-point beatdown at St. John’s. Meanwhile, DePaul sits at 6-3 with a respectable home profile despite their defensive warts. According to collegebasketballdata.com, we’re looking at a Marquette squad that ranks 162nd in adjusted net efficiency facing a DePaul team that checks in at 237th. That gap isn’t massive, but when you factor in home court and the pace differential here, this number starts making sense. The market’s telling us this is a coin flip with a slight home edge, and the underlying metrics back that up. Both teams have clear identity issues—Marquette can’t shoot straight, DePaul can’t stop anybody—but one of these flawed squads is getting three points at home, and that’s where we need to dig deeper.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: Marquette at DePaul
Date: January 16, 2026
Time: 8:30 PM ET
Venue: Wintrust Arena, Chicago, IL
DraftKings:
Spread: DePaul -3.5
Total: 142.5
Moneyline: DePaul -166, Marquette +140
Bovada:
Spread: DePaul -2.5
Total: 142
Moneyline: DePaul -150, Marquette +130
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
Let’s talk about why we’re seeing a short number here. Marquette’s adjusted offensive efficiency sits at 106.5, ranking 195th nationally, while their adjusted defensive efficiency of 105.7 ranks 135th. That’s a team that’s slightly below average on offense but actually decent defensively when you adjust for opponent quality. DePaul flips that script entirely: 103.3 adjusted offensive efficiency (259th) paired with 108.3 adjusted defensive efficiency (188th). Neither team inspires confidence, but here’s the kicker—DePaul’s raw offensive rating of 122.9 ranks 57th nationally, which seems contradictory until you realize they’re playing at a 62.9 pace that ranks 324th. They’re scoring efficiently in the halfcourt against weak competition.
Marquette operates at a 69.2 pace (157th), which is significantly faster. When the faster team travels to face the slower team, pace typically lands somewhere in between, but closer to the home team’s preference. That means we’re looking at a grind-it-out affair where possessions matter. The total sitting at 142-142.5 reflects this perfectly—the market expects roughly 71 points per side in a game with maybe 65-68 possessions. DePaul getting 2.5 to 3.5 points at home in what projects as a rock fight? That’s the market saying these teams are basically even with a home bump.
Marquette Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
The Golden Eagles have exactly one thing working in their favor: Chase Ross can absolutely fill it up. He’s averaging 19.5 points per game, ranking 46th nationally, and he’s the only consistent offensive weapon they have. After that? It gets ugly fast. Marquette’s shooting 42.5% from the field (299th) and 31.3% from three (267th). Their effective field goal percentage of 49.1% ranks 292nd. This is a team that struggles to generate quality looks and convert when they get them.
The saving grace is their defensive pressure. They rank 25th nationally with 9.9 steals per game, and their turnover ratio of 0.1 ranks 38th. They’re forcing mistakes and taking care of the ball themselves. Ben Gold provides 7.2 rebounds per game (152nd nationally) and gives them some interior presence, but at 2.5 blocks per game (303rd), they’re not protecting the rim. This is a perimeter-oriented defense that lives and dies by deflections and transition opportunities. Against DePaul’s plodding pace, those transition chances dry up fast.
DePaul Breakdown: The Counterpoint
DePaul’s offense runs through ball movement and patience. They rank 51st nationally with 17.2 assists per game, and Layden Blocker orchestrates everything with 3.8 assists per game (207th). CJ Gunn leads the scoring at 13.7 points per game, but this is a balanced attack where NJ Benson (11.8 PPG) and his 7.4 rebounds per game (132nd nationally) provide interior stability. They’re shooting 44.6% from the field and 51.2% effective field goal percentage (211th)—nothing spectacular, but functional.
The problem is obvious: they can’t guard anybody. DePaul’s defensive rating of 113.3 ranks 294th, and they’re allowing 44.9% opponent field goal percentage (247th) and 34.0% from three (247th). They’re not getting stops when they need them. At home, they beat Georgetown 56-50 and Xavier 86-77, which tells you everything—they can win ugly or win in shootouts, but they need the home crowd and familiar surroundings. The question is whether Marquette’s offensive ineptitude bails out DePaul’s defensive deficiencies.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game comes down to pace and execution in the halfcourt. DePaul wants to slow this thing to a crawl and make Marquette execute in the halfcourt against a set defense. Marquette wants to speed it up, create chaos with their 9.9 steals per game, and get Ross going in transition. The reality? DePaul controls tempo at home, and Marquette’s going to have to win this game in the 60s.
The rebounding battle matters here. Marquette grabs 38.5 boards per game (119th) with a 34.5% offensive rebound rate (73rd). DePaul’s pulling down just 34.6 rebounds per game (262nd) with a 30.9% offensive rebound rate (188th). If Marquette can crash the glass and generate second chances, they’ve got a path to covering or winning outright. But they’re shooting so poorly that even extra possessions might not matter.
The head-to-head history shows tight games: DePaul won 83-85 at home last year, and Marquette returned the favor 68-58. These teams know each other, and the games stay close. In a low-possession environment where every bucket matters, three points is a significant cushion.
Bash’s Best Bet
I’m taking Marquette +3.5 at DraftKings, and I’m doing it with more confidence than this game probably deserves. Look, neither team is good. DePaul’s 237th in adjusted net efficiency for a reason, and Marquette’s shooting woes are real. But in a game that’s going to be played in the mid-60s possession-wise, I trust Marquette’s defensive intensity and rebounding edge to keep this within a possession. Ross will get his 20, Marquette will force 12-14 turnovers with their pressure, and DePaul’s going to struggle to pull away at home against a team that’s actually solid defensively when you adjust for competition.
The key number is 3.5 versus 2.5. If you can get the extra point at DraftKings, take it. This game lands on 2 or 3 more often than 4 or 5. Give me the better defensive team getting points in a rock fight. Marquette +3.5.
