Can McNeese’s high-pressure defense disrupt the nation’s most efficient team, or will Michigan’s size prove too much? Bryan Bash breaks down the efficiency gap and provides his top ATS pick for Monday’s game in Ann Arbor.
The Setup: McNeese at Michigan
Michigan’s laying 24.5 points against McNeese on Sunday night at Crisler Center, and I can already hear some of you thinking that’s a monster number for a mid-major that’s been putting up 90 points per game. Look, I get the hesitation. McNeese comes in at 7-2 with an offensive rating that ranks 5th nationally in raw numbers. But here’s the thing – when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com adjusted efficiency numbers, this isn’t David versus Goliath. This is David walking into a buzzsaw.
Michigan sits at #1 in adjusted net efficiency at 36.2, powered by the nation’s #1 adjusted defensive efficiency at 88.0. The Wolverines are undefeated at 8-0 and coming off five straight games scoring 89 or more points, including demolition jobs against legitimate competition like Gonzaga and Villanova. Meanwhile, McNeese’s impressive offensive numbers are built on a foundation of Southland Conference competition. Their adjusted offensive efficiency sits at 113.6 (#82), and their adjusted defensive efficiency of 100.5 (#44) tells me they haven’t seen anything close to what Michigan’s going to throw at them.
I’m backing Michigan to cover 24.5, and let me walk you through exactly why this number makes perfect sense.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Date: December 29, 2025
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Location: Crisler Center, Ann Arbor, MI
Spread: Michigan -24.5
Total: 160.5
Moneyline: Michigan -6500, McNeese +2000
Why This Number Makes Sense
The efficiency gap here is absolutely massive, and that’s where this game lives and dies. According to collegebasketballdata.com, Michigan’s adjusted net efficiency of 36.2 ranks #1 nationally, while McNeese sits at #52 with a 13.1 mark. That’s a 23.1-point difference in adjusted net efficiency. Here’s why this matters: adjusted efficiency accounts for strength of schedule and pace, giving us a true apples-to-apples comparison.
McNeese plays at a glacial pace – 60.8 possessions per game ranks them 341st in the nation. That’s not just slow; it’s one of the ten slowest teams in college basketball. Michigan, meanwhile, runs at 71.9 possessions per game (#71). The Wolverines are going to dictate tempo here, and when they push the pace against a team that wants to slow it down, that’s when defensive breakdowns happen for the slower team.
Do that math over 70 possessions at Michigan’s preferred pace, and you’re looking at a natural 16-17 point margin just from the efficiency gap. Add in home court advantage – worth roughly 3-4 points – and we’re already at 20 points before we even talk about specific matchup advantages.
The raw offensive rating numbers are misleading. Yes, McNeese posts a 147.8 offensive rating (#5), but that’s against competition that includes Houston Christian, East Texas A&M, and Northwestern State. Their adjusted offensive efficiency of 113.6 (#82) is solid but nowhere near elite. Michigan’s adjusted defensive efficiency at 88.0 (#1) means the Wolverines are allowing just 88 points per 100 possessions against schedule-adjusted competition. That’s suffocating.
McNeese’s Situation
The Cowboys have some legitimate offensive weapons, led by Larry Johnson at 16.4 points per game (#174 nationally). They’re efficient shooters at 51.4% from the field (#20) and excel at getting to the free throw line, where they convert at 79.0% (#10). Their offensive rebounding rate of 36.8% (#18) is genuinely impressive – that’s a top-20 mark nationally.
But here’s where it falls apart: they can’t shoot the three. At 32.8% from deep (#213), they’re in the bottom third of Division I. Against Michigan’s 30.0% opponent three-point percentage (#78), those perimeter looks are going to be there, and McNeese won’t be able to capitalize. That’s a massive problem when you’re trying to keep pace with a team scoring 94.6 points per game.
Defensively, McNeese generates 11.4 steals per game (#3), which is elite. They’re aggressive and force turnovers. The problem? Michigan’s already turnover-prone at 13.4 per game (#266), but they have the offensive firepower to overcome mistakes. McNeese’s defensive rating of 107.9 (#216) and adjusted defensive efficiency of 100.5 (#44) are respectable, but they haven’t faced an offense like Michigan’s.
Looking at their recent form, they beat Rhode Island by just two points and lost to Incarnate Word. Those aren’t results that inspire confidence heading into Ann Arbor.
Michigan’s Situation
The Wolverines are absolutely rolling. They’re 8-0 with five straight games of 89-plus points, and they just dismantled Gonzaga 101-61. That’s not a typo – they beat a Top-25 Gonzaga team by 40 points. According to collegebasketballdata.com, Michigan ranks 6th in adjusted offensive efficiency at 124.2 and 1st in adjusted defensive efficiency at 88.0.
What makes Michigan special is the balance. They rank 5th nationally in field goal percentage at 52.8% and 7th in effective field goal percentage at 61.0%. They’re not just volume shooters – they’re efficient. At 37.3% from three (#50), they’re a legitimate threat from deep. Yaxel Lendeborg (15.8 PPG) and Morez Johnson Jr. (14.2 PPG) give them a dominant interior presence, while they rank 2nd nationally in rebounds per game at 45.8.
Defensively, they’re holding opponents to just 34.6% shooting (#2) and blocking 6.4 shots per game (#7). That interior defense is going to be a nightmare for McNeese’s paint-oriented attack. The Cowboys score 426 points in the paint through nine games – Michigan’s size and shot-blocking will disrupt that completely.
The only concern is Michigan’s 13.4 turnovers per game (#266), which could feed into McNeese’s strength of generating steals. But I keep coming back to those efficiency numbers because they’re just too extreme to ignore.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game comes down to three critical matchups, and Michigan wins all three decisively.
Pace Control: McNeese wants to play at 60.8 possessions per game. Michigan wants 71.9. At home, Michigan’s going to get their pace, and every extra possession favors the more efficient team. Over 72 possessions instead of 61, that’s an extra 11 possessions. With Michigan’s offensive rating advantage, that’s worth an additional 8-10 points right there.
Three-Point Shooting: Michigan shoots 37.3% from deep (#50) while McNeese sits at 32.8% (#213). Michigan defends the three at 30.0% (#78) while McNeese allows 33.6% (#226). The Wolverines have a massive advantage on both ends of the three-point line. Over 25 combined three-point attempts, that efficiency gap is worth 6-8 points.
Interior Defense: Here’s the matchup that seals it for me. Michigan ranks 2nd in rebounds per game at 45.8 and 7th in blocks at 6.4 per game. McNeese relies heavily on paint scoring (426 points in the paint through nine games) and offensive rebounds (36.8% rate, #18). But Michigan’s size with Lendeborg, Johnson, and Aday Mara (8.9 RPG, #52) is going to neutralize both advantages. McNeese won’t be able to get second-chance points, and their drives to the basket will meet shot-blockers.
There’s also the historical context: these teams met in December 2023, and McNeese won 87-76. That Michigan team was different, and this year’s Wolverines squad is on a mission. The revenge factor matters in college basketball, especially at home.
My Play
The Pick: Michigan -24.5 (3 units)
I’ve considered all of that, and the efficiency gap is still too massive to ignore. Michigan’s 36.2 adjusted net efficiency (#1) against McNeese’s 13.1 (#52) represents a 23-point difference before we even factor in home court. Add 3-4 points for playing at Crisler Center, and we’re at 26-27 points. The pace advantage gives Michigan extra possessions to exploit that efficiency edge.
The main risk here is if Michigan gets complacent with a big lead and takes their foot off the gas in the final ten minutes. Dusty May’s teams have shown a killer instinct, though – they beat Gonzaga by 40 and Rutgers by 41 this season. They’re not in the business of letting teams hang around.
I’m projecting Michigan 96, McNeese 68. That’s a 28-point margin that comfortably clears the 24.5-point spread.
McNeese’s slow pace might keep this from being a 40-point blowout, but it won’t be enough to stay within 25 points of the nation’s most efficient team. Michigan’s defense is too good, their offense too balanced, and their home court advantage too significant. This is a statement game for the Wolverines as they head into Big Ten play, and they’re going to make a statement.
Lay the points with confidence. Michigan covers.
