Florida Atlantic enters as a narrow favorite in a matchup where three-point defense could be the deciding factor. We compare the shooting efficiency and rebounding margins to lock in our technical ATS pick for this Sunday afternoon tip-off.
The Setup: Memphis at Florida Atlantic
Florida Atlantic is laying 1.5 to 2 points at home against Memphis in an American Athletic Conference matchup, and honestly? This line screams “pick ’em” more than anything else. Both teams sit at virtually identical adjusted net ratings according to collegebasketballdata.com – FAU at #112 (5.4) and Memphis at #113 (5.3) – which tells you the oddsmakers are splitting hairs here. But here’s the thing: when two teams are this evenly matched on paper, the little details become massive. And when I dig into the tempo matchup, the defensive vulnerabilities, and who’s playing at home, I keep coming back to one side of this number.
This is a conference game between two teams trying to establish themselves in the AAC, and the 1:00 PM ET tip makes this a classic mid-week grind spot. Memphis comes in at 4-4 overall while FAU holds a slightly better 6-3 record, but records don’t tell the full story when you’re looking at efficiency metrics. Let me walk you through why this spread is tighter than a drum – and which side I’m backing.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: Memphis at Florida Atlantic
Date: January 11, 2026
Time: 1:00 PM ET
Venue: Eleanor R. Baldwin Arena, Boca Raton, FL
DraftKings: FAU -1.5, O/U 151.5
Bovada: FAU -2, O/U 152
Why This Number Makes Sense
Here’s why this line makes sense: The adjusted efficiency numbers from collegebasketballdata.com show these teams are practically twins. Memphis checks in with a 108.6 adjusted offensive rating (#157) and 103.3 adjusted defensive rating (#90). Florida Atlantic counters with 114.0 adjusted offense (#75) and 108.7 adjusted defense (#201). That’s a 5.4-point edge in adjusted offensive efficiency for FAU, but Memphis gives back 5.4 points on the defensive end. Essentially, you’ve got an offensive-minded FAU squad facing a more defensively solid Memphis team.
The raw efficiency ratings tell a similar story. Memphis posts a 109.0 offensive rating (#219) and 105.7 defensive rating (#179), while FAU counters with 115.0 (#131) and 106.9 (#197). That 6-point offensive edge for Florida Atlantic is real, but it’s not overwhelming. The spread of 1.5 to 2 points basically amounts to home court advantage and nothing more.
But here’s where it gets interesting: the tempo split. Memphis plays at 69.9 possessions per game (#138) while FAU crawls at 65.2 (#290). That’s nearly five fewer possessions per game, which means fewer opportunities for variance and fewer chances for Memphis to leverage their superior defense. In a slower game, every possession magnifies, and FAU’s offensive efficiency advantage becomes more pronounced.
Memphis’s Situation
The Tigers come in with some legitimate strengths, starting with that adjusted defensive rating of 103.3 that ranks 90th nationally. They’re holding opponents to 41.3% from the field (#96) and 31.8% from three (#144) – those are legitimately good numbers. Memphis also crashes the offensive glass at an elite level, ranking 10th nationally in offensive rebound percentage at 37.7%. That’s not just a stat – it’s why Memphis can survive their mediocre shooting nights by getting second and third chances.
The problem? Memphis can’t shoot straight. A 43.2% field goal percentage (#281) and 49.0% effective field goal percentage (#294) are borderline terrible at this level. Their 32.4% three-point shooting (#228) won’t scare anyone, and the 53.2% true shooting percentage (#289) confirms this is a team that struggles to score efficiently. Point guard Dug McDaniel leads the way at 13.9 points per game and ranks 13th nationally with 6.4 assists per game, but he doesn’t have enough weapons around him.
Recent form shows inconsistency. They’ve won three straight, but those wins came against Rice, North Texas, and Alabama State – not exactly murderer’s row. Before that, they dropped back-to-back games to Mississippi State and Vanderbilt. This is a .500 team for a reason.
Florida Atlantic’s Situation
FAU brings a significantly better offensive profile to the table. That 114.0 adjusted offensive efficiency (#75) is legit, and they’re shooting 45.0% from the field (#201) and 51.9% effective field goal percentage (#185). They’re not elite shooters, but at 33.5% from three (#181), they’re competent enough to make Memphis respect the perimeter. The 56.0% true shooting percentage (#173) shows they’re finding good looks.
Devin Vanterpool is the engine here, dropping 17.0 points per game (#137 nationally) while pulling down 7.6 boards (#124). Kanaan Carlyle adds 15.6 points (#241), giving FAU a legitimate two-headed scoring attack. That’s more offensive firepower than Memphis can match. FAU also blocks shots at an elite level – 6.0 per game ranks 9th nationally – which should help neutralize Memphis’s interior game.
The concern? That 108.7 adjusted defensive rating (#201) is mediocre at best. They’re allowing 45.2% shooting from the field (#261) and an absolutely atrocious 39.9% from three-point range (#358). That three-point defense is bottom-10 nationally, which is alarming. They’ve also lost two of their last three, including an 88-75 beatdown at Saint Mary’s and an 85-80 loss at UCF.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game lives and dies on pace and shooting efficiency. Memphis wants to speed this up to 70+ possessions and turn it into a rock fight where their defensive edge and offensive rebounding (37.7% vs FAU’s 36.8%) can dominate. FAU wants to slow it down – which they will, given that 65.2 pace ranking – and execute in the halfcourt where their offensive efficiency shines.
Here’s the matchup that seals it for me: Memphis’s three-point shooting versus FAU’s three-point defense. The Tigers are shooting 32.4% from deep while FAU is allowing 39.9% – that’s a 7.5 percentage point gap in FAU’s favor defensively. But flip it around: FAU shoots 33.5% from three while Memphis allows 31.8%. That’s only a 1.7 percentage point edge for Memphis defensively. The math favors Memphis’s ability to contain FAU’s perimeter game more than FAU’s ability to contain Memphis’s.
The turnover battle matters too. Memphis coughs it up 13.2 times per game (#255) compared to FAU’s 11.3 (#116). In a slower-paced game with fewer possessions, those extra two turnovers per game become massive. Do that math over 65 possessions instead of 70, and you’re looking at FAU getting 3-4 extra scoring opportunities just from Memphis’s sloppiness.
The head-to-head history heavily favors Memphis. They won 84-65 and 90-62 in the two meetings last season. FAU did win 92-84 back in March 2024, but the recent trend points to Memphis dominance. That matters in a conference game where familiarity breeds contempt.
My Play
The Pick: Memphis +2 (1.5 units)
I’ve considered all of that, and the defensive gap is still too massive to ignore. Memphis’s adjusted defensive rating of 103.3 (#90) versus FAU’s 108.7 (#201) is a 5.4-point swing in a game that’s projected to be decided by a bucket. Yes, FAU has the offensive advantage, but in a slow-paced, grind-it-out conference game at 65 possessions, I trust the team that can get stops.
The main risk here is if FAU’s home court and superior shooting efficiency allow them to build an early lead and force Memphis to play from behind. Memphis doesn’t have the offensive firepower to come back from double-digit deficits. But in a tight game – which this projects to be – give me the team with the better defense, the better offensive rebounding, and the recent head-to-head dominance.
I’m projecting Memphis to keep this within a possession either way, potentially pulling off the small road upset. Something like FAU 74, Memphis 73, with the Tigers covering that 2-point number. Memphis has the defensive chops and the glass-crashing mentality to steal this one in Boca Raton. Lay the points with the road dog.
