Xavier enters this matchup riding serious momentum, and the betting angles point to one side having all the advantages. Bash looks at the numbers, the matchup edges, and the momentum to deliver his pick against the spread.
The Setup: Xavier’s Gonna Steamroll Missouri State
Xavier is laying 18.5 at home against Missouri State, and this number isn’t just fair — it’s a gift. The Musketeers are rolling right now, winners of four straight including that massive statement win over Cincinnati in the Crosstown Shootout. Meanwhile, Missouri State just got their doors blown off by Tulsa 98-74 and now they’re walking into Cintas Center where Xavier doesn’t lose. This isn’t a game — it’s a beatdown waiting to happen.
Here’s what you need to understand: Missouri State is 0-2 on the road this year. Xavier is 7-2 at home and playing their best basketball of the season. The talent gap is enormous, the motivation is there, and the situational spot couldn’t be better. When I see Xavier laying 18.5 at home against a mid-major that can’t defend and can’t shoot, I’m not overthinking it. I’m laying the points and cashing tickets.
Why Missouri State Can’t Hang
Missouri State’s offense is where this game gets decided. They score 78.6 points per game, which sounds respectable until you realize they’re shooting 45.9% from the field and a brutal 29.7% from three-point range. That’s 357th nationally — bottom ten in all of Division I. You can’t win on the road in December when you’re bricking threes like that.
Keith Palek III leads the Bears with 16.8 points and 6.8 rebounds per game, and he’s solid, but he’s not taking over against a Big East defense. Michael Osei-Bonsu adds 13.7 points and 7.1 rebounds, giving them size, but here’s the problem — they just got destroyed by Tulsa. Demolished. And Tulsa isn’t a juggernaut. If Tulsa can boat race Missouri State by 24, what’s Xavier going to do?
The Bears can’t shoot, they can’t defend consistently, and they’re walking into a hostile environment against a team playing with serious swagger. This is a disaster waiting to happen.
Xavier’s Rolling and They Know It
Xavier just beat Cincinnati 79-74 in a game that wasn’t as close as the score suggests. Tre Carroll erupted for 30 points on 14-of-23 shooting, and he’s now averaging 17.3 per game as the go-to scorer. Roddie Anderson III adds 13.3, Jovan Milicevic chips in 12.5, and this is a balanced offensive group ranking 22nd nationally in assists per game at 18.5.
They move the ball, they get clean looks, and they don’t cough it up. Xavier ranks 8th nationally in turnovers per game at just 9.1. That’s huge — Missouri State isn’t getting easy transition points. The Bears force 7.6 steals per game, which is fine, but not enough against a team that values every possession.
Xavier shoots 36.7% from three (60th nationally), and against Missouri State’s perimeter defense, they’re going to get open looks all night. The Musketeers are going to spread the floor, knock down threes, and make Missouri State defend for 30 seconds every trip. That’s when inferior teams crack.
The Matchup: Where Xavier Wins This Game
This game comes down to Xavier’s three-point shooting vs. Missouri State’s inability to stop it. Xavier ranks 31st nationally in threes made per game at 10.4. Missouri State ranks 357th in three-point percentage. That’s not a matchup — that’s a massacre.
Xavier protects the ball (9.1 turnovers, 8th nationally) and shoots well from deep. Missouri State can’t shoot (29.7% from three) and doesn’t defend well enough to hide it. Xavier will get out in transition, bury threes, and stretch this lead late when Missouri State’s legs fade.
There’s another angle: this is Xavier’s final non-conference game before Big East play. Their last tuneup. Their last chance to sharpen everything before the grind. Richard Pitino isn’t letting his guys sleepwalk. Expect pace, pressure, and a big early punch.
Missouri State, meanwhile, is just trying to survive. They’re 0-2 on the road, fresh off a blowout loss, and now walking into one of the toughest home courts in the country. Xavier is 5-1 ATS in their last six at home. This spot is brutal for the Bears.
The Angles That Seal It
- Xavier is 5-1 ATS in their last six home games — they cover numbers at Cintas.
- Missouri State is 0-5 straight up in their last five road games — and they don’t just lose; they get crushed.
- Xavier’s assist-to-turnover ratio: 2.03 (4th nationally). Missouri State’s: 1.34. That’s a monster gap in execution.
- Missouri State shot 49% against Tulsa and still lost by 24. They can’t defend, can’t rebound consistently, and can’t match Xavier’s athleticism.
Xavier will attack Missouri State’s 29.7% three-point shooting with their own 36.7% clip and force the Bears into a track meet they can’t win. Missouri State will fall behind, start forcing bad shots, and Xavier will bury them in the second half.
My Play
Xavier -18.5 for 2 units
I’m laying the points with the Musketeers and doing it confidently. The talent gap is massive, the motivation is perfect, and Missouri State is reeling from a 24-point beating. Even if Xavier starts slow after the emotional win over Cincinnati, they have too many weapons and too much shooting for this to stay competitive.
Xavier wins by 25-plus.
My score prediction: Xavier 88, Missouri State 63
The Bears might hang around for 15 minutes, but once Xavier’s threes start falling and Missouri State starts taking desperation shots, this turns into a laugher. Take Xavier and cash the ticket.
