It’s a battle of premier scorers as Labaron Philon Jr. (22.2 PPG) leads #23 Alabama against Missouri’s Mark Mitchell. Our handicapping guide looks at the key injury updates for Aden Holloway and the free pick for tonight’s game where tempo will be the ultimate factor.
The Setup: Missouri at Alabama
Alabama’s sitting at -10.5 against Missouri at Coleman Coliseum, and the market’s telling you exactly what it should: this is a talent mismatch masquerading as a competitive SEC game. The Crimson Tide check in at 12th nationally in adjusted net efficiency according to collegebasketballdata.com, while Missouri limps in at 58th. That’s not a gap—that’s a chasm. And when you factor in Alabama’s pace advantage and home-court edge, this number isn’t just justified. It might be a gift.
Here’s the thesis: Missouri’s 8-2 record is fool’s gold built on elite shooting percentages that won’t hold up against Alabama’s length and tempo. The Tigers rank 10th nationally in field goal percentage, but they’ve been getting torched defensively in SEC play, and now they’re walking into the buzzsaw that is Coleman Coliseum against a team that ranks 4th in adjusted offensive efficiency. This spread should move, not shrink.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: Missouri @ Alabama
Date: January 27, 2026
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Location: Coleman Coliseum, Tuscaloosa, AL
DraftKings:
Spread: Alabama -10.5
Total: 164.5
Bovada:
Spread: Alabama -11
Total: 165
Moneyline: Alabama -800, Missouri +525
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
The market landed on 10.5 to 11 because that’s precisely where the efficiency math takes you. Alabama’s adjusted offensive efficiency sits at 125.4—4th in the country—while Missouri’s adjusted defensive efficiency ranks a pedestrian 114th at 104.9. That’s a 20-point gap in points per 100 possessions, and when you’re playing at Alabama’s pace (75.6 possessions per game, 10th nationally), those efficiency gaps get magnified fast.
Missouri’s adjusted net efficiency of 12.0 versus Alabama’s 23.2 creates an 11.2-point expected margin on a neutral court. Add three points for home court, and you’re staring at a theoretical 14-point spread. The market shaved a few points off because Missouri’s 8-2 record carries public perception value, but make no mistake—this line respects what actually matters.
The total of 164.5 makes perfect sense when you combine Alabama’s 10th-ranked pace with Missouri’s 107th-ranked tempo at 70.9. You’re looking at roughly 73 possessions, and with both teams sporting offensive ratings above 123, the math screams over. Alabama’s averaging 95.1 points per game (7th nationally), and Missouri’s putting up 87.4 (42nd). Even with some defensive resistance, you’re projecting north of 165.
Missouri Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
Let’s give Missouri credit where it’s due: the Tigers can absolutely score. That 52.4% field goal percentage ranks 10th nationally, and their 59.2% effective field goal percentage (16th) shows they’re getting quality looks. Mark Mitchell leads the charge at 18.4 points per game, and when you’ve got five guys in double figures, you’ve got balance.
The problem? Everything else. Missouri’s turnover issues are glaring—13.3 per game ranks 257th nationally, with a turnover ratio sitting at 228th. Against a team that forces tempo like Alabama, those mistakes become points the other way. And here’s the kicker: Missouri’s defensive metrics are getting exposed in SEC play. They rank 240th in opponent three-point percentage at 33.9%, and they just gave up 74, 78, and 76 points in three of their last five games—all losses.
The Tigers’ 3-0 start in their last five games? Look closer. They squeaked past Oklahoma 88-87 and got smoked by LSU, Ole Miss, and Georgia in their three losses. This isn’t a team trending up; it’s a team getting found out.
Alabama Breakdown: The Counterpoint
Alabama’s counterpoint is simple: they’re better at everything that matters. That 4th-ranked adjusted offensive efficiency isn’t a fluke—it’s built on Labaron Philon Jr. (21.4 PPG, 8th nationally) and Aden Holloway (18.2 PPG) creating nightmare matchup problems in the backcourt. Philon’s also dishing 5.4 assists per game (46th nationally), and Alabama’s 18.2 assists per game rank 34th. This is a connected offensive system.
Defensively, Alabama’s got the edge in every category that matters for this matchup. They block 6.2 shots per game (8th nationally), they hold opponents to 30.6% from three (96th), and their turnover ratio ranks 3rd in the country. Missouri’s sloppy with the ball? Alabama’s going to turn that into transition buckets.
The concern is recent form—three losses in their last five, including that 96-90 shootout at Vanderbilt. But context matters. Two of those losses came against Tennessee and Texas, both elite teams. And Alabama’s still averaging 95.1 points per game while playing the 10th-fastest tempo in college basketball. This is a team built to run you off the floor at home.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game gets decided in two places: pace and turnovers. Alabama wants to push tempo relentlessly—75.6 possessions per game versus Missouri’s 70.9. Every extra possession favors the more efficient offense, and that’s Alabama by a country mile. When the Tide get out in transition (152 fast break points versus Missouri’s 158, but in fewer games), they’re lethal.
Missouri’s turnover issues are going to get exploited mercilessly. The Tigers rank 257th in turnovers per game, and Alabama’s 3rd-ranked turnover ratio means they protect the ball while forcing mistakes. That’s a recipe for a double-digit margin right there. Missouri’s giving up 179 points off turnovers already this season—Alabama’s going to feast.
The other battleground is Missouri’s perimeter defense against Alabama’s guard play. Missouri ranks 240th in opponent three-point percentage, and they’re facing a backcourt duo in Philon and Holloway that can create separation and finish. Alabama’s 34.7% from three (141st) isn’t elite, but against this defense, they’ll get clean looks all night.
Missouri’s only path to covering is if their elite shooting percentages hold up on the road in a hostile environment against superior length. That 52.4% field goal percentage is impressive, but it’s built on a soft early schedule. Alabama’s got the athletes to disrupt that rhythm, and Coleman Coliseum is going to be rocking.
Bash’s Best Bet
Alabama -10.5 (-110)
I’m laying the points with Alabama, and I’m not overthinking it. The efficiency gap is real, the pace advantage is real, and Missouri’s defensive vulnerabilities are getting exposed every time they step up in competition. Alabama’s 23.2 adjusted net efficiency versus Missouri’s 12.0 tells you everything you need to know—this is a talent mismatch.
Missouri’s three-game skid in SEC play wasn’t bad luck. It was reality checking in. Now they’re walking into one of the toughest road environments in college basketball against a team that ranks 4th in adjusted offensive efficiency and plays at warp speed. The Tigers can’t protect the ball, can’t defend the perimeter, and can’t slow down Alabama’s tempo. That’s three fatal flaws in one matchup.
Give me Alabama to win by 15-plus. This number’s a gift.
