Undefeated and ranked No. 10, Nebraska faces its toughest test yet at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall. Our expert analysis digs into why Indiana’s top-20 adjusted defensive efficiency makes this point spread a fascinating look for Big Ten bettors.
The Setup: Nebraska at Indiana
Indiana’s laying 4.5 points at home against undefeated Nebraska, and I’m already seeing the sharp money crowd circling the Cornhuskers. Look, I get it – 9-0 looks pretty on paper, and riding an unbeaten team getting points feels like a no-brainer. But here’s the thing: when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this line isn’t just fair – it might actually be a gift for Indiana backers.
Let me walk you through why this Saturday noon tip at Assembly Hall sets up as a classic case of record versus reality. Nebraska’s undefeated, sure, but their last two Big Ten wins came by a combined four points – squeaking past Michigan State 58-56 at home and edging Ohio State 72-69 on the road. Meanwhile, Indiana just throttled Maryland by 18 on the road and sits 20th nationally in adjusted net efficiency compared to Nebraska’s 38th. That 18-spot gap in the efficiency rankings? That’s massive, and it’s exactly why this number makes sense.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: Nebraska (9-0) @ Indiana (7-2)
Date: Saturday, January 10, 2026
Time: 12:00 PM ET
Venue: Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall, Bloomington, IN
Spread: Indiana -4.5
Total: 149.5
Moneyline: Indiana -195, Nebraska +165
Why This Number Makes Sense
The efficiency gap tells you everything you need to know about this matchup. According to collegebasketballdata.com, Indiana checks in with a 116.7 adjusted offensive efficiency (47th nationally) against Nebraska’s 114.2 (71st). That’s a 2.5-point edge per 100 possessions on offense. Flip to defense, and the gap widens: Indiana’s adjusted defensive efficiency of 97.0 ranks 20th nationally, while Nebraska sits at 98.5 (32nd). Another 1.5-point advantage.
Do that math over 70 possessions – and both teams play at nearly identical tempos (Indiana 70.7, Nebraska 71.2) – and you’re looking at roughly a 2.8-point efficiency advantage for the Hoosiers before we even factor in home court. Add three points for Assembly Hall, and suddenly 4.5 starts looking awfully thin.
Here’s what really jumps out: Indiana’s offensive rating of 120.9 ranks 64th nationally, while Nebraska sits at 117.6 (96th). That’s not just a number – it’s why Indiana consistently generates cleaner looks and better shot quality. The Hoosiers are converting at 61.1% true shooting (39th) compared to Nebraska’s 59.6% (73rd). When you’re talking about 70-plus possessions, that efficiency gap compounds quickly.
Nebraska’s Situation
The Cornhuskers deserve credit for navigating a tough early Big Ten schedule unscathed, but those wins have been razor-thin. They’re 2-0 in conference play by a combined four points, and their defensive numbers – while solid at 34th nationally in adjusted efficiency – aren’t elite enough to consistently win tight games against top-tier competition.
Offensively, Nebraska leans heavily on Rienk Mast’s 18.1 points per game (89th nationally) and Pryce Sandfort’s 15.8 (227th). That’s a solid one-two punch, but the drop-off is steep. The Cornhuskers rank just 51st in effective field goal percentage at 56.6%, and their three-point shooting at 34.8% (137th) is pedestrian at best. Against Indiana’s 20th-ranked adjusted defense, I’m not seeing where Nebraska consistently generates quality looks.
The rebounding numbers concern me too. Nebraska’s offensive rebounding percentage of 24.2% ranks 353rd nationally – that’s bottom-tier. When you can’t create second-chance opportunities and you’re not elite from three, you better be perfect in the halfcourt. Against this Indiana defense? Good luck with that.
Indiana’s Situation
The Hoosiers are rolling, winners of four straight with their only recent loss coming at Kentucky – hardly a red flag. What stands out is how balanced this offense operates. Tucker DeVries leads at 17.8 points (99th), but four other players average double figures. That depth matters in January Big Ten games.
Indiana’s assist numbers tell the story of a mature, connected offense: 19.3 per game (14th nationally) with just 9.8 turnovers (25th). They rank 17th in turnover ratio, same as Nebraska, but the Hoosiers do it while playing faster and generating better shots. Their 56.9% effective field goal percentage (44th) edges Nebraska’s 56.6% (51st), and they convert free throws at 76.1% (49th) compared to Nebraska’s concerning 71.5% (184th).
Defensively, this is where Indiana separates. The Hoosiers hold opponents to 38.5% shooting (28th nationally) and 93.9 defensive rating (29th). They force 159 points off turnovers compared to Nebraska’s 146, and they’re more disruptive in transition with 82 fast break points to Nebraska’s 67. At home, where Indiana controls pace and crowd energy, those advantages amplify.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game lives and dies on Indiana’s ability to control tempo and force Nebraska into halfcourt execution. Both teams play at similar paces, but the Hoosiers are significantly better in structured offense. Indiana’s 19.3 assists per game (14th) against Nebraska’s 18.4 (31st) might not look like much, but it reflects better ball movement and shot creation.
Here’s the matchup that seals it for me: Indiana’s perimeter defense against Nebraska’s mediocre three-point shooting. The Cornhuskers are shooting just 34.8% from deep (137th), and they’ll face a Hoosier defense that’s allowing 32.8% from three (185th nationally). That’s actually not elite perimeter defense by Indiana, but against Nebraska’s inconsistent shooting, it’s more than good enough.
The free throw disparity matters too. Indiana converts at 76.1% while Nebraska sits at 71.5% (184th nationally). In a game projected to be close, that 4.6% gap could easily account for 3-4 points. And with Indiana likely getting more attempts at home, that edge compounds.
I keep coming back to those offensive rebounding numbers because they’re just too extreme to ignore. Nebraska ranks 353rd in offensive rebounding percentage – that’s catastrophic. Against an Indiana team that’s solid on the defensive glass, the Cornhuskers won’t get second chances. One-and-done possessions against a top-20 adjusted defense? That’s a recipe for offensive droughts.
My Play
The Pick: Indiana -4.5 (2 units)
I’m laying the points with the Hoosiers at home. The efficiency numbers, the home court advantage, and the stylistic matchup all point to Indiana winning this by 7-10 points. I’m projecting something around 79-71 Indiana, which clears the number comfortably.
The main risk here is if Nebraska’s defense travels better than expected and they turn this into an ugly, 60-possession rock fight. But I’ve considered all of that, and Indiana’s offensive efficiency advantage is still too massive to ignore. The Hoosiers are better on both ends of the floor, they’re playing at home, and they’re facing a Nebraska team that’s been surviving rather than dominating.
Give me Indiana -4.5, and I’ll take my chances with the better team in front of their home crowd. This undefeated record is about to take its first hit.
