The 14-0 Nebraska Cornhuskers head to the Schottenstein Center as slim road underdogs against Ohio State. Bash breaks down whether the Huskers’ #32 ranked adjusted defensive efficiency makes them the premier ATS pick for this Big Ten clash.
The Setup: Nebraska at Ohio State
Ohio State’s laying 2.5 at home against undefeated Nebraska, and I’m already seeing the sharp money crowd salivating over the Cornhuskers. Look, I get it – 9-0 looks shiny, and taking points with an unbeaten team feels safe. But here’s the thing: when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this line isn’t giving Nebraska nearly enough respect for what they’ve actually accomplished, and it’s giving Ohio State way too much credit for what’s been a shakier profile than that 7-1 record suggests.
This is a Big Ten conference game at the Schottenstein Center, and the matchup screams closer than Vegas thinks. Nebraska’s defense has been legitimately elite, while Ohio State’s offensive firepower – as impressive as it looks on paper – hasn’t been tested against this caliber of defensive intensity in a true road environment. Let me walk you through why this number doesn’t add up.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: Nebraska (9-0) @ Ohio State (7-1)
Date: January 5, 2026
Time: 6:30 PM ET
Venue: Schottenstein Center, Columbus, OH
Spread: Ohio State -2.5
Total: 154.5/155.5
Moneyline: Ohio State -115, Nebraska -105
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
Here’s where the efficiency metrics from collegebasketballdata.com tell a fascinating story. Both teams sit at identical adjusted net ratings of 15.6, ranking 38th nationally. That’s not a typo – they’re literally dead even in the metric that matters most. So why is Ohio State favored by 2.5?
The home court argument only gets you so far. Ohio State’s adjusted offensive efficiency of 116.9 ranks 44th nationally, while Nebraska checks in at 114.2, ranking 71st. That’s a modest 2.7-point gap per 100 possessions. Both teams play at nearly identical tempos – Ohio State at 70.5 possessions per game (119th) and Nebraska at 71.2 (98th). Do that math over 70 possessions, and you’re looking at roughly a 1.9-point offensive advantage for the Buckeyes.
But here’s what Vegas is overlooking: Nebraska’s adjusted defensive efficiency of 98.5 ranks 32nd nationally, significantly better than Ohio State’s 101.3 mark at 52nd. That’s not just a ranking difference – it’s a 2.8-point gap per 100 possessions in Nebraska’s favor. The Cornhuskers hold opponents to just 37.9% from the field (21st nationally) and 30.2% from three (87th). Ohio State? They’re allowing 41.8% overall (115th) and 26.7% from deep (15th).
The three-point defense discrepancy matters because Ohio State lives and dies by the perimeter. They’re shooting 36.9% from three (65th) with an effective field goal percentage of 61.0% (7th nationally). That’s elite shooting. But Nebraska’s perimeter defense has been tested and proven.
Nebraska’s Situation
The Cornhuskers are 9-0, and while that Michigan State game was a grinder (58-56), they’ve shown the ability to win ugly and win pretty. Their 90-60 demolition of Wisconsin and that 83-80 road victory at Illinois show versatility. Rienk Mast leads the way at 18.1 points per game (89th nationally), while Pryce Sandfort adds 15.8 (227th).
What stands out is Nebraska’s ball security. They’re turning it over just 10.2 times per game (46th) with a turnover ratio of 0.1 (17th nationally). That’s exceptional care of the basketball. They also rank 31st in assists per game at 18.4, showing unselfish play and good ball movement.
The weakness? Offensive rebounding at just 24.2% (353rd nationally). Nebraska’s not getting second chances, which means they need to be efficient on first shots. Their 56.6% effective field goal percentage (51st) suggests they are, but against elite defenses, that lack of second-chance opportunities could be costly.
Ohio State’s Situation
The Buckeyes boast some genuinely impressive offensive numbers. That 53.0% field goal percentage ranks 3rd nationally, and their 65.4% true shooting percentage sits 5th. Bruce Thornton is a legitimate star at 20.1 points per game (32nd nationally), and they’ve got balanced scoring with four guys in double figures.
But here’s what concerns me: those two losses tell a story. They lost at home to Illinois 80-88, and they dropped a road game at North Carolina 70-71. Against quality competition, this defense has been vulnerable. That 101.3 adjusted defensive efficiency (52nd) isn’t bad, but it’s not elite. They’re allowing 69.1 points per game (94th) and 41.8% shooting overall (115th).
The turnover situation is also problematic. Ohio State coughs it up 11.8 times per game (142nd) compared to Nebraska’s 10.2 (46th). Against a team that takes care of the ball as well as Nebraska does, those extra possessions matter. The Cornhuskers rank 17th in turnover ratio – they force mistakes and don’t make them.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game lives and dies on whether Nebraska’s defense can disrupt Ohio State’s shooting rhythm. The Buckeyes are 3rd nationally in field goal percentage, but they haven’t faced a defense like this. Nebraska ranks 21st in opponent field goal percentage and 32nd in adjusted defensive efficiency. Something’s got to give.
I keep coming back to those defensive rating numbers because they’re just too extreme to ignore. Nebraska’s defensive rating of 94.7 (34th) versus Ohio State’s 98.0 (59th) is significant. The Cornhuskers have allowed 67.9 points per game (72nd) while Ohio State’s giving up 69.1 (94th). In a game projected for 154-155 total points, that defensive edge matters.
The three-point matchup is critical. Ohio State shoots 36.9% from deep (65th) and Nebraska allows 30.2% (87th). Meanwhile, Nebraska shoots 34.8% from three (137th) against an Ohio State defense allowing 26.7% (15th). The Buckeyes have the edge in perimeter defense, but Nebraska’s overall defensive structure is more sound.
Here’s the matchup that seals it for me: Nebraska’s turnover ratio (17th nationally) against Ohio State’s turnover problems (142nd). The Cornhuskers rank 46th in fewest turnovers while the Buckeyes rank 142nd. That’s a possession advantage that could be worth 3-4 extra shots for Nebraska. In a game this tight, those possessions are gold.
My Play
The Pick: Nebraska +2.5 (2 units)
I’ve considered the home court advantage, Ohio State’s offensive firepower, and Bruce Thornton’s ability to take over games. I’ve looked at it from every angle. But the defensive efficiency gap is too massive to ignore, and the identical adjusted net ratings tell me these teams are dead even on a neutral court. Getting 2.5 points with the better defensive team? That’s value.
The main risk here is if Ohio State gets hot from three early and builds a cushion that Nebraska can’t overcome with their methodical offensive approach. The Cornhuskers don’t have explosive scoring runs – they grind. But that 9-0 record includes road wins, and their ball security gives them the floor to stay within this number even if shots aren’t falling.
Score Prediction: Ohio State 76, Nebraska 75
This feels like a one-possession game throughout. Nebraska’s defense keeps them in it, Ohio State’s home court gets them across the finish line by a single point, and we cash the ticket with the Cornhuskers plus the points. The efficiency numbers don’t lie – these teams are evenly matched, and 2.5 points is a gift.
