Bash takes a sharp look at a Conference USA battle where the advanced metrics reveal a hidden edge. While both teams have winning records, the point spread doesn’t seem to account for a massive gap in shooting efficiency.
The Setup: New Mexico State at Liberty
Liberty’s laying 8.5 at home against New Mexico State on Wednesday night. This looks like a classic conference toss-up between two 6-2 teams. But here’s the thing – these records are hiding a massive efficiency gap that makes this line look downright generous to the home side. When you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com numbers, Liberty is operating on a completely different offensive plane than the Aggies, and I’m not sure the market has fully priced in just how dominant the Flames have been on their home floor.
This is a Conference USA matchup that matters for seeding down the road, but more importantly for our purposes, it’s a game where the style clash heavily favors the home team. New Mexico State brings a solid defensive profile ranked 47th nationally in defensive rating at 96.7, but they’re about to face an offensive buzzsaw that ranks 24th in the country in offensive rating at 129.1. Let me walk you through why this spread might actually be too low.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: New Mexico State @ Liberty
Date: January 15, 2026
Time: 6:00 PM ET
Location: Liberty Arena, Lynchburg, VA
Spread: Liberty -8.5
Total: 142.5/143
Moneyline: Liberty -430, New Mexico State +320
Why This Number Makes Sense
The adjusted efficiency numbers from collegebasketballdata.com tell a clear story here. Liberty checks in at 117.1 in adjusted offensive efficiency, ranking 40th nationally. New Mexico State? They’re at 109.7, good for 139th. That’s a 7.4-point gap in offensive efficiency alone. But here’s where it gets interesting – flip to the defensive side, and New Mexico State actually has the edge with an adjusted defensive efficiency of 106.5 (147th) compared to Liberty’s 109.6 (218th).
So why am I not worried about Liberty’s defensive rankings? Because the Aggies simply don’t have the offensive firepower to exploit it. New Mexico State ranks 307th in effective field goal percentage at just 48.5%, and they’re shooting 31.1% from three (271st nationally). Meanwhile, Liberty is second in the entire country in field goal percentage at 54.7% and fourth nationally in three-point shooting at 43.1%. That’s not just good shooting – it’s elite efficiency that translates to Liberty’s ridiculous 65.6% effective field goal percentage, which ranks first in all of Division I basketball.
Do that math over 65 possessions at Liberty’s pace (284th nationally at 65.4), and you’re looking at a double-digit margin based purely on shooting efficiency. The Aggies can defend, sure, but they’ve never seen an offense this precise.
New Mexico State’s Situation
The Aggies bring a legitimate defensive identity to Lynchburg, holding opponents to just 38.6% shooting (30th nationally) and an impressive 27.2% from three-point range (21st). That’s real. Guard Jemel Jones leads the way offensively at 16.5 points per game (170th nationally), and forward Julius Mims provides interior presence with 7.0 rebounds per game (175th). But here’s the problem – nobody else is consistently creating offense.
New Mexico State’s recent form is concerning. They’ve dropped three of their last five, including an 89-74 beatdown at Florida International and a home loss to Middle Tennessee, 59-55. That Middle Tennessee loss is particularly telling – they scored just 55 points against a team that doesn’t crack the top 100 in defensive efficiency. When the shots aren’t falling, and they’re only hitting 42.7% from the field (295th), the offense stalls completely.
The Aggies do have one advantage: they crash the offensive glass hard, ranking 64th in offensive rebound percentage at 34.8%. That could create some second-chance opportunities. But against a Liberty team that takes care of the ball (3rd nationally in turnovers per game at just 8.5), New Mexico State won’t get many extra possessions from live-ball turnovers.
Liberty’s Situation
Liberty is absolutely rolling, winners of five straight including a road victory at Sam Houston and that wild 97-94 shootout at Florida International. Brett Decker Jr. is the headliner at 19.6 points per game (42nd nationally), but the depth here is what makes this offense so dangerous. Kaden Metheny adds 14.1 per game, and here’s the kicker – forward Zach Cleveland is averaging 9.0 rebounds (44th) and 8.4 assists per game, which ranks third in the entire country. A big man facilitating at that level creates matchup nightmares.
The ball movement numbers back up the eye test. Liberty ranks 26th nationally in assists per game at 18.8, and they’re protecting the rock with that nation-leading 8.5 turnovers per game. That’s a turnover ratio of 0.1, good for third in the country. They don’t beat themselves, and they make the extra pass to find elite looks – hence that 43.1% from deep.
Liberty’s only real weakness is on the defensive glass, where they rank 364th in offensive rebound percentage allowed at just 20.3%. New Mexico State will get some second chances. But when you’re shooting 54.7% from the field on first-chance opportunities, you can survive some offensive rebounds against.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game lives and dies on whether New Mexico State can slow Liberty’s tempo and turn this into a defensive grind. The Aggies want to play at 68.4 possessions (184th), while Liberty prefers 65.4 (284th). So we’re looking at a slower-paced game regardless, which theoretically helps New Mexico State keep it close.
But here’s the matchup that seals it for me: Liberty’s three-point shooting against New Mexico State’s perimeter defense. Yes, the Aggies rank 21st in opponent three-point percentage at 27.2%. But they haven’t faced a team shooting 43.1% from deep with this kind of ball movement. Liberty’s effective field goal percentage of 65.6% is built on quality shot selection – they’re not just jacking threes. With Cleveland facilitating from the post and four capable shooters around him, the Flames will get the looks they want.
I keep coming back to those offensive efficiency numbers because they’re just too extreme to ignore. Liberty’s 129.1 offensive rating ranks 24th nationally, while New Mexico State checks in at 107.6 (245th). Even accounting for New Mexico State’s strong defense, that’s a gap of over 20 points per 100 possessions. Scale that to Liberty’s 65-possession pace, and you’re looking at a 13-point expected margin.
The head-to-head history supports Liberty’s dominance too. Last season, the Flames won both meetings, including an 83-58 blowout at home. New Mexico State scored just 54 points in the road loss. The Aggies’ offensive limitations haven’t changed – if anything, Liberty’s gotten more efficient.
My Play
The Pick: Liberty -8.5 (-110) for 2 units
I’m laying the points with Liberty at home. The offensive efficiency gap is too massive, and the Flames have the home court advantage in a venue where they’ve been dominant. New Mexico State’s defense will keep this from becoming a 20-point blowout early, but Liberty’s shooting precision and ball security will wear them down over 40 minutes.
I’m projecting Liberty 78, New Mexico State 66. That covers the 8.5 with room to spare. The main risk here is if Liberty goes cold from three and New Mexico State’s offensive rebounding creates extra possessions that keep it close. I’ve considered all of that, and the shooting efficiency gap is still too massive to ignore. Liberty’s 54.7% field goal percentage isn’t a fluke through eight games – it’s who they are.
This line should probably be closer to 10.5 or 11 based on the efficiency metrics. We’re getting value on a home favorite that’s simply operating at a higher offensive level. Take the Flames and don’t overthink it.
