The public sees St. Thomas’s flashy shooting and wants to lay the chalk, but Bryan Bash is grabbing the +3.5 with a gritty NDSU squad that knows how to turn a track meet into a physical half-court grind.
The Setup: North Dakota State at St. Thomas-Minnesota
St. Thomas-Minnesota is laying 3.5 points at home against North Dakota State on Thursday night, and this number screams trap game to anyone not paying attention to the efficiency metrics. Look, both teams sit at 23-6 and 21-8 respectively, both are fighting for Summit League positioning, and on the surface this looks like a coin flip. But when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, you start to see why the Tommies are getting this respect at home—even if the gap isn’t as wide as you’d think.
The adjusted efficiency numbers tell us we’ve got two teams separated by just 0.7 points in net rating. North Dakota State checks in at #118 nationally with a +5.1 net rating, while St. Thomas sits at #110 with a +5.8 mark. That’s tight. Really tight. But here’s where it gets interesting: the Tommies rank #81 in adjusted offensive efficiency compared to NDSU’s #110, and they’re doing it with elite shooting numbers that create a real mismatch problem when you factor in the Bison’s defensive vulnerabilities.
This is a Summit League battle with legitimate NCAA Tournament implications, and the 9:00 PM ET tip at Schoenecker Arena sets up a pace and efficiency puzzle that the market might be undervaluing—or overvaluing, depending on how you read the rebounding edge.
Game Info & Betting Lines
When: Thursday, February 26, 2026 | 9:00 PM ET
Where: Schoenecker Arena, Saint Paul, MN
Records: North Dakota State (23-6) @ St. Thomas-Minnesota (21-8)
Conference: Summit League
Spread: St. Thomas-Minnesota -3.5
Total: 154.5
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
The market landed on 3.5 because it’s accounting for a home court advantage that’s worth roughly 2.2 points, plus a marginal efficiency edge that shows up in the shooting metrics. St. Thomas-Minnesota owns a 3.9 percentage point advantage in true shooting (62.1% vs 58.2%) and a whopping 4.8 point edge in effective field goal percentage (59.7% vs 54.9%). Those are elite numbers—the Tommies rank #9 nationally in true shooting and #5 in effective field goal percentage.
Here’s the thing: North Dakota State’s adjusted defensive efficiency sits at #141 nationally, which means they’re allowing 107.3 points per 100 possessions. When you match that against St. Thomas’s #81 adjusted offense, you get a projected offensive output of 111.0 points per 100 possessions for the home team. That’s a 7.5-point mismatch advantage in favor of the Tommies’ offense against the Bison’s defense.
The flip side? NDSU’s offensive rebounding rate of 32.5% (#109 nationally) absolutely dwarfs St. Thomas’s 21.4% mark (#361). That’s an 11.1 percentage point rebounding edge that creates extra possessions and second-chance opportunities. The Bison generate 1,044 points in the paint compared to St. Thomas’s 1,144, but they do it with significantly more offensive glass work.
The projected pace sits at 68.6 possessions, which is slower than St. Thomas’s preferred 70.4 tempo (#44 nationally) but faster than NDSU’s 66.8 crawl (#191). That moderate pace environment slightly favors the Tommies’ efficiency advantage over the Bison’s grinding style.
North Dakota State Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
The Bison bring a 23-6 record built on defensive competence and offensive rebounding aggression. Their 116.9 offensive rating (#69) paired with a 101.3 defensive rating (#48) shows a team that can score efficiently while limiting opponents to just 70.4 points per game (#88 nationally).
Markhi Strickland leads the scoring at 14.6 points per game, with Damari Wheeler-Thomas adding 14.5. But the real engine here is Andy Stefonowicz, who dishes 5.2 assists per game (#65 nationally) and orchestrates an offense that turns it over just 10.9 times per game (#121). That turnover ratio of 0.2 (#83) keeps possessions clean, which matters in a slower-paced environment.
The Bison’s defensive pressure shows up in 8.6 steals per game (#34), and they’re holding opponents to 34.3% from three (#220). They’ve won four of their last five, including impressive road wins at South Dakota State and North Dakota. This is a battle-tested team that knows how to grind.
St. Thomas-Minnesota Breakdown: The Counterpoint
The Tommies counter with elite shooting efficiency that ranks among the nation’s best. That 51.3% field goal percentage ranks #6 nationally, and they’re converting 36.8% from three (#39). When you combine that with 17.0 assists per game (#33) and just 9.6 turnovers (#25), you’re looking at an offense that maximizes every possession.
Nolan Minessale is the star here, dropping 21.2 points per game (#12 nationally) while adding 4.3 assists (#137). Nick Janowski provides secondary scoring at 14.4 points, and the Tommies get balanced contributions from Isaiah Johnson-Arigu (10.4 PPG) and Carter Bjerke (8.4 PPG).
The concern? They’re #361 in offensive rebounding rate and allow 73.0 points per game (#153). Their adjusted defensive efficiency sits at #172 nationally, which means NDSU’s efficient offense should find scoring opportunities. The Tommies went 2-3 in their last five with losses to Denver and Omaha, showing some vulnerability against quality Summit League competition.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game comes down to whether North Dakota State can win the possession battle on the glass or whether St. Thomas-Minnesota’s shooting efficiency overcomes those extra chances. The model projects 68.6 possessions with the Tommies scoring 76.2 points and NDSU putting up 75.9—a razor-thin 2.4-point margin that includes the home court advantage.
The head-to-head history favors St. Thomas, who won 68-58 in the 2024 Summit tournament and took a 79-62 decision last season at home. But NDSU won the most recent meeting 68-65 in January, showing they can hang in tight games.
The total of 154.5 feels slightly high given the projected 152.1 combined score. Both teams rank in the top half nationally in turnover rate, meaning fewer empty possessions and more half-court execution. NDSU’s defensive rating (#48) suggests they can slow down even elite offenses, while St. Thomas’s true shooting advantage means they convert at elite levels when they do get clean looks.
Bash’s Best Bet
The Play: North Dakota State +3.5
I’m taking the points with the Bison, and here’s why: that 11.1 percentage point rebounding edge is going to create 4-6 extra possessions in a 69-possession game. In a matchup this tight—separated by just 0.7 in net rating—those extra chances matter. NDSU’s adjusted defensive efficiency (#141) isn’t elite, but their 101.3 raw defensive rating (#48) shows they can buckle down in conference play.
The model says this should be a 2.4-point game, and we’re getting 3.5. That’s a full point of value. St. Thomas’s shooting is elite, no question, but they’re #361 in offensive rebounding and #172 in adjusted defense. NDSU wins the possession battle, keeps turnovers low, and has proven they can win tight road games this season.
Give me the Bison plus the points. This one stays within a possession.
