Notre Dame escaped Stanford with a 47-40 win, but can they survive an 11 PM ET tip in Berkeley? Bash examines the point spread and delivers a sharp prediction on whether Cal’s high-octane perimeter game will blow this open.
The Setup: Notre Dame at California
California’s getting 4 to 4.5 points at home against Notre Dame in an 11 PM ET ACC tip from Haas Pavilion, and here’s the thing – this line is telling us Vegas sees two teams that are a lot closer than their records suggest. The Golden Bears are 8-1 and riding high, while the Fighting Irish sit at 7-3 with some question marks. But when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this spread makes perfect sense, and I’m leaning toward the home team to cover and possibly win outright.
Let me walk you through why this late-night West Coast game sets up beautifully for Cal. Notre Dame’s coming cross-country for an 11 PM Eastern start – that’s 8 PM Pacific for a team that plays at a snail’s pace. Meanwhile, California’s got the offensive firepower and defensive chops to exploit what the Irish do worst. This isn’t just about home court. It’s about matchup dynamics that favor the Bears in every key area.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: Notre Dame (7-3) @ California (8-1)
Date: January 2, 2026
Time: 11:00 PM ET
Venue: Haas Pavilion, Berkeley, CA
Conference: ACC
Spread: California -4 to -4.5
Total: 140 to 140.5
Why This Number Makes Sense
The efficiency gap here isn’t massive, but it’s meaningful. According to collegebasketballdata.com, California ranks 66th nationally with an adjusted net efficiency of 11.1, while Notre Dame sits at 81st with a 9.4 adjusted net rating. That’s a 1.7-point difference in adjusted efficiency, and when you factor in home court advantage (typically worth 3-4 points), you’re looking at a 4.5 to 5.5 point edge for the Bears. The line is spot-on.
Here’s what really jumps out: Cal’s adjusted offensive efficiency ranks 81st at 113.7, while their adjusted defensive efficiency sits at 76th nationally at 102.6. Notre Dame? They’re 92nd on both sides of the ball – 112.8 offensive, 103.4 defensive. That’s not just similar numbers – it’s why this game comes down to execution and tempo control. Cal’s slightly better on both ends, and they get to play at home.
The pace differential matters too. Notre Dame crawls at 64.7 possessions per game, ranking 300th nationally. California plays faster at 69.8 possessions (139th). Over a full game, that’s roughly 5 extra possessions for Cal to impose their will. Do that math over 70 possessions with Cal’s superior efficiency, and you’re looking at a 6-8 point swing right there.
Notre Dame’s Situation
The Irish are led by Markus Burton, who’s dropping 18.5 points per game (76th nationally), and Jalen Haralson adds 13.9 (427th). That’s solid scoring punch, but here’s the concern: Notre Dame ranks just 233rd in assists per game at 13.5. They’re not a great ball-movement team, and against Cal’s defense that ranks 63rd in opponent field goal percentage at 40.0%, that’s going to be a problem.
Notre Dame’s three-point shooting sits at 35.9% (98th), which is respectable, but Cal defends the arc exceptionally well, holding opponents to just 30.4% from deep (89th nationally). The Irish also can’t get to the free-throw line consistently, and when they do, they’re shooting just 70.3% (220th). That’s points left on the board.
The one bright spot? Carson Towt is a monster on the glass at 10.1 rebounds per game (19th nationally). But Notre Dame’s team offensive rebounding percentage ranks just 256th at 29.2%. One guy can’t carry the boards alone, and Cal’s Lee Dort (6.6 RPG, 235th) provides enough interior presence to neutralize that advantage.
California’s Situation
Cal’s got three legitimate scoring threats in Dai Dai Ames (18.6 PPG, 73rd), Chris Bell (14.9 PPG, 306th), and Justin Pippen (14.3 PPG, 377th). That’s balance Notre Dame can’t match. Pippen’s also facilitating at 4.3 assists per game (125th nationally), giving Cal the playmaking edge in this matchup.
The Bears rank 32nd nationally in three-point percentage at 38.1%, and that’s a massive advantage against a Notre Dame defense that allows 32.8% from deep (185th). Cal’s effective field goal percentage of 55.9% ranks 67th, compared to Notre Dame’s 85th ranking at 55.0%. Every possession matters in a slow-paced game, and Cal’s making more of theirs count.
Defensively, this is where Cal separates. They rank 70th in defensive rating at 98.7, compared to Notre Dame’s 137th ranking at 103.4. Cal blocks 4.2 shots per game (88th), while Notre Dame manages just 1.7 (346th). That rim protection is going to force the Irish into tough mid-range shots all night.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game lives and dies on California’s ability to speed up Notre Dame and force them into uncomfortable possessions. The Irish want to grind this into a 63-possession rock fight. Cal wants 70-plus possessions where their superior shooting efficiency takes over. At Haas Pavilion, the home team controls that tempo.
The three-point battle is the key matchup that seals it for me. Cal shoots 38.1% from deep and defends it at 30.4%. Notre Dame shoots 35.9% and defends it at 32.8%. That’s a 5-point advantage in shooting and a 2-point advantage in defending the arc. Over 20-25 three-point attempts, that’s a 10-12 point swing in Cal’s favor.
I keep coming back to those adjusted efficiency numbers because they’re just too extreme to ignore. Cal’s better offensively, better defensively, and playing at home in a late-night spot that favors the West Coast team. Notre Dame’s 47-40 win at Stanford in their last game shows they can win ugly on the road, but that was a 47-point offensive output. You can’t score 47 against Cal and expect to win.
The main risk here is if Burton and Haralson get nuclear hot from three and Notre Dame turns this into a halfcourt slugfest under 65 possessions. But Cal’s got too many weapons, too much defensive versatility, and too much home-court advantage for that to matter.
My Play
The Pick: California -4 (2 units)
I’m laying the points with Cal at home. The efficiency gap, the three-point advantage, and the late-night cross-country travel spot all point to a comfortable Bears victory. I see this game finishing around California 76, Notre Dame 69, which covers the 4-point spread with room to spare.
I’ve considered the slow pace and Notre Dame’s ability to muck up games, and the Cal advantage is still too massive to ignore. The Bears are the better team on both ends of the floor, they’re at home, and they match up perfectly to exploit what Notre Dame does worst. Give me California to cover and likely win by 7-10 points.
Lock it in.
