With Markus Burton sidelined, the betting market has pushed this line into double digits. This contrarian best bet explores if the Irish’s slow pace and rebounding presence can keep them within the 11.5-point spread at the Dean Dome.
The Setup: Notre Dame at North Carolina
North Carolina’s laying 11.5 points at home against Notre Dame, and if you’re thinking this feels steep for an ACC matchup, you’re not alone. But here’s the thing – the numbers tell a story that’s hard to ignore. The Tar Heels sit at #28 nationally in adjusted net efficiency with an 18.1 rating, while the Irish check in at #81 with a 9.4 mark, per collegebasketballdata.com. That’s nearly a nine-point gap in pure efficiency, and we’re getting a spread that’s only 2.5 points beyond that projection. Add in the Dean Dome factor and Notre Dame’s current four-game losing streak, and suddenly this number starts making a lot more sense than your initial gut reaction might suggest.
The Irish are limping into Chapel Hill having lost four straight, including three conference games where they’ve looked completely overmatched. Meanwhile, Carolina’s defensive metrics are borderline elite – #8 in opponent field goal percentage and #22 in defensive rating. This isn’t about fading Notre Dame blindly. It’s about recognizing when efficiency gaps this wide justify double-digit spreads.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: Notre Dame (7-3) at North Carolina (8-1)
Date: January 21, 2026
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Venue: Dean E. Smith Center, Chapel Hill, NC
Spread: North Carolina -11.5 (DraftKings) / -11 (Bovada)
Total: 148.5 (DraftKings) / 148 (Bovada)
Moneyline: UNC -750 / Notre Dame +500
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
Let’s walk through the math here, because this is where the market gets interesting. Carolina’s adjusted offensive efficiency sits at 115.6 (#58), while their adjusted defensive efficiency ranks #26 nationally at 97.5. Notre Dame counters with a 112.8 adjusted offensive rating (#92) and 103.4 defensive mark (#92). When you’re looking at nearly identical efficiency ratings on both sides of the ball for the Irish – both ranked #92 – you’re seeing a team that’s aggressively mediocre in ACC play.
The pace differential matters here too. Notre Dame crawls at 64.7 possessions per game (#300 nationally), while Carolina pushes it slightly more at 70.2 (#128). That’s roughly five extra possessions for the Tar Heels, and when you’re the more efficient team getting more possessions in your own building, the math compounds quickly. Project this out: if Carolina’s scoring around 1.16 points per possession and Notre Dame’s at 1.14, but the Heels are getting five extra cracks at the basket, you’re looking at a natural 12-13 point spread before you even factor in home court.
The total at 148 feels about right given the pace. These aren’t two teams that want to run, and Notre Dame especially will try to muck this up and shorten the game. But Carolina’s defensive dominance – holding opponents to just 36.8% shooting (#8) – suggests the Irish will struggle to reach their season average of 76.6 points.
Notre Dame Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
The Irish have exactly one thing working in their favor right now: Markus Burton. The guard is dropping 18.5 points per game (#76 nationally) and serves as the entire offensive engine for this team. The problem? He’s surrounded by a supporting cast that ranks #233 nationally in assists per game at just 13.5. That’s brutal ball movement for a team that wants to play slow.
Carson Towt gives them legitimate rebounding presence at 10.1 boards per game (#19 nationally), which matters against Carolina’s size. But here’s the killer stat: Notre Dame ranks #346 in blocks per game with just 1.7 swats. Against a UNC team that lives in the paint and ranks #11 in rebounding at 43.4 per game, that’s a recipe for getting bullied on the glass and at the rim.
The defensive numbers aren’t terrible – #132 in opponent field goal percentage at 42.3% – but they’re facing an efficiency monster in Chapel Hill. And that four-game losing streak? It’s not fluky. They’ve been outclassed by better ACC competition, losing by double digits to Virginia Tech, Miami, and Clemson. The lone competitive loss was a one-point heartbreaker at Cal, but even that required overtime to stay close.
North Carolina Breakdown: The Counterpoint
Carolina’s frontcourt is where this game gets decided. Caleb Wilson (19.6 PPG, #44 nationally) and Henri Veesaar (16.2 PPG, 9.2 RPG) form one of the most productive big man duos in the country. Wilson’s 10.6 rebounds per game rank #14 nationally, and when you pair that with Carolina’s #11 national ranking in team rebounding, you’re looking at a massive advantage against an Irish team that ranks #256 in offensive rebounding percentage.
The defensive metrics are what separate Carolina from the pack. That 36.8% opponent field goal percentage ranks #8 nationally, and they’re holding teams to just 29.4% from three (#59). Their 92.3 defensive rating (#22) is borderline elite, and it’s showing up in the points allowed – just 65.0 per game (#23 nationally).
The concern? Carolina’s dropped three of their last five, including road losses at Cal and Stanford that raise questions about focus. They’re also shooting just 31.7% from three (#251), which means they’re winning with defense and interior dominance rather than perimeter firepower. Against a Notre Dame team that plays slow and tries to shorten games, Carolina needs to impose their will early.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This comes down to the paint and the glass, plain and simple. North Carolina ranks #11 in rebounding and has two legitimate bigs who can dominate. Notre Dame ranks #256 in offensive rebounding percentage and #346 in blocks per game. That’s not a matchup – that’s a mismatch.
Burton will get his points for the Irish, but who else? Jalen Haralson’s 13.9 PPG helps, but this is a team averaging just 13.5 assists (#233) that’s going to struggle creating quality looks against Carolina’s #8-ranked field goal defense. The Irish want to slow this down and keep it ugly, which is their only path to covering. If they can keep the pace under 67 possessions and turn this into a rock fight, maybe they sneak a backdoor cover.
But here’s the reality: Carolina’s adjusted efficiency advantage is massive, they’re at home, and Notre Dame is reeling. The Heels score 1.16 points per possession while allowing just 0.92 on defense. That’s a 24-point differential over 100 possessions, and even in a shortened game, that gap is hard to overcome. Carolina’s 79-66 win over Florida State in their last home game showed what they can do when locked in at the Dean Dome.
Bash’s Best Bet
The Play: North Carolina -11, risk 1.5 units
I’m laying the points with the Tar Heels, and I’m not overthinking this. The efficiency gap is too wide, the matchup advantages too obvious, and Notre Dame’s four-game skid too concerning to back them even with the points. Carolina wins this game by 15-18 if they play to their metrics, and I’ll take my chances that they show up at home against a reeling opponent.
The rebounding and interior dominance should create enough separation by the under-12 timeout, and once Carolina establishes that edge, Notre Dame doesn’t have the offensive firepower to mount a comeback. Burton will score, but he can’t do it alone against this defense.
Lean: Under 148
If you want a side piece, I like the under. Notre Dame’s pace (#300) will drag this into the mud, and Carolina’s elite defense should keep the Irish well below their season average. This feels like a 78-64 type game where the Heels cover comfortably but the total stays under.
