Michigan enters tonight’s rivalry clash as a heavy 15.5-point favorite, boasting the #1 adjusted defensive rating in the country. Our prediction hinges on whether Ohio State’s top-10 effective field goal percentage can survive a Wolverines interior that allows just 34.6% from the floor.
The Setup: Ohio State at Michigan
Michigan’s laying 15.5 at home against Ohio State, and before you start thinking this is another Big Ten rivalry game where the spread’s too fat, pump the brakes. The Wolverines are 8-0 and sitting at #1 in adjusted net efficiency with a ridiculous 36.2 rating, while the Buckeyes check in at #38 with a 15.6 mark. That’s not a close gap—that’s a chasm. When you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, Michigan’s defense is operating at an elite level that Ohio State simply hasn’t seen yet this season. The Wolverines own the #1 adjusted defensive rating in the country at 88.0, and they’re doing it with suffocating interior defense and an offensive attack that ranks #6 nationally in adjusted efficiency at 124.2. This number might look big, but the data says it’s justified.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: Ohio State at Michigan
Date: January 23, 2026
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Location: Crisler Center, Ann Arbor, MI
DraftKings Spread: Michigan -15.5
Bovada Spread: Michigan -15
Total: 163.5
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
Let’s start with the efficiency math, because that’s where this line gets built. Michigan’s got a 36.2 adjusted net rating compared to Ohio State’s 15.6—that’s a 20.6-point gap in efficiency. When you’re playing at home, you typically get 3-4 points of value, so we’re looking at a projected spread somewhere in the 23-24 point range if we’re being strict about the numbers. The fact that this line opened at 15.5 and 15 tells me the market is giving Ohio State some respect for their offensive firepower. The Buckeyes rank #5 nationally in true shooting percentage at 65.4% and #7 in effective field goal percentage at 61.0%. That’s legitimate scoring efficiency.
But here’s the thing—Ohio State hasn’t faced a defense like Michigan’s. The Wolverines are holding opponents to just 34.6% from the field, which ranks #2 nationally. They’re blocking 6.4 shots per game (#7 in the country) and forcing teams completely out of their offensive rhythm. Ohio State’s defensive rating of 98.0 (#59) is solid but not spectacular, and when you’re going into Crisler Center against an undefeated team with the nation’s best adjusted defense, that 15.5-point spread starts looking reasonable. The total at 163.5 factors in Michigan’s pace at 71.9 possessions (#71) and Ohio State’s slightly slower 70.5 (#119), projecting a game in the low-to-mid 80s for the home team.
Ohio State Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
The Buckeyes can absolutely score. Bruce Thornton’s putting up 20.1 points per game (#32 nationally) and running the offense at 4.0 assists per game, while Christoph Tilly and John Mobley Jr. provide secondary scoring punch. That 53.0% field goal percentage (#3 in the nation) is elite, and they’re getting quality looks inside with 310 points in the paint through eight games. The three-point defense has been outstanding at 26.7% allowed (#15 nationally), which means they can take away the perimeter game.
The problem? Ohio State’s rebounding and defensive presence are concerning. They rank #349 in offensive rebounding percentage at just 24.5%, and they’re getting just 1.5 blocks per game (#358). Against a Michigan team that’s grabbing 45.8 rebounds per game (#2 in the country), the Buckeyes are going to get bullied on the glass. Add in the fact that Ohio State’s only generating 5.1 steals per game (#328), and you’ve got a team that doesn’t create enough defensive chaos to disrupt Michigan’s offensive flow.
Michigan Breakdown: The Counterpoint
The Wolverines are rolling, and the numbers back up the 8-0 record. That #1 adjusted defensive rating at 88.0 is historically good, and they’re complementing it with the #6 adjusted offensive efficiency at 124.2. Yaxel Lendeborg and Morez Johnson Jr. form a frontcourt that’s dominating the paint—Michigan’s scoring 346 points in the paint and controlling the glass at an elite level. The 20.8 assists per game (#3 nationally) shows an offense that’s moving the ball and finding the best shot every possession.
Aday Mara’s pulling down 8.9 rebounds per game (#52 nationally) and providing rim protection with that 6.4 blocks per game team mark. The defense is holding opponents to just 66.6 points per game (#55) and an absurd 34.6% from the field. The only concern here is the free throw shooting at 72.8% (#139), but that’s nitpicking. Michigan’s also turning it over 13.4 times per game (#266), which is higher than you’d like, but they’re compensating with superior efficiency everywhere else.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game comes down to Michigan’s interior dominance against Ohio State’s perimeter shooting. The Buckeyes need to keep this game in the 70s and hit threes to stay within range, but Michigan’s three-point defense at 30.0% allowed (#78) is solid enough to limit the damage. More importantly, Ohio State’s lack of defensive rebounding and rim protection is going to get exposed. Michigan’s going to get second-chance opportunities, and with that 125.7 offensive rating (#37), they’re going to convert.
Ohio State’s 7-1 record looks good on paper, but that lone loss to Washington on the road and the home loss to Nebraska suggest this team isn’t built to handle elite defensive pressure in hostile environments. Michigan’s creating 133 fast break points through eight games, and if they force Ohio State into turnovers and push the pace even slightly, this game could get ugly. The Buckeyes’ 11.8 turnovers per game isn’t terrible, but Michigan’s generating 6.9 steals per game (#216) and turning defense into offense.
The pace differential here matters less than you’d think. Both teams are playing in the low 70s for possessions, so we’re looking at a halfcourt game where Michigan’s defensive efficiency and rebounding dominance should control the tempo. Ohio State needs Bruce Thornton to have a monster game and for the Buckeyes to shoot 40%+ from three to keep this competitive. That’s asking a lot against the nation’s best defense.
Bash’s Best Bet
I’m laying the 15.5 with Michigan. The efficiency gap is too large, the home court advantage is real, and Ohio State doesn’t have the defensive tools to slow down Michigan’s interior attack. The Wolverines are going to dominate the glass, protect the rim, and force Ohio State into difficult shots. Bruce Thornton’s a stud, but one guy can’t overcome a 20-point efficiency gap when you’re playing in Ann Arbor against an undefeated team that’s defending like it’s 2002.
The total at 163.5 is interesting, and I’d lean under if forced to pick. Michigan’s defensive rating of 88.5 (#10 in the country) and that elite adjusted defensive mark suggest they’re going to keep Ohio State in the 60s or low 70s. If Michigan hits 85-90, we’re still under the number. Both teams play deliberate offense, and this game should stay in the low-to-mid 80s for the winner.
The Play: Michigan -15.5
