Our comprehensive betting guide features an ATS pick for Thursday’s clash, focusing on Ohio State’s high-powered scoring and an Oregon squad coming off a heartbreaker.
The Setup: Ohio State at Oregon
Oregon is laying 2.5 to 3 points at home against Ohio State on Thursday night, and I’ll be honest – this line feels like a trap for folks who see a 7-1 team getting points against a 4-5 squad. But here’s the thing: this isn’t about records. This is about efficiency, and when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com numbers, the Buckeyes have a massive edge that makes this spread look completely backwards.
Ohio State comes into Matthew Knight Arena with the 38th-ranked adjusted net efficiency rating at plus-15.6. Oregon? They’re sitting at minus-2.4, good for 194th nationally. That’s an 18-point efficiency gap, and yet the Ducks are favored at home. Let me walk you through why I’m all over the Buckeyes here, because this is one of those spots where the betting market is giving us real value based on perception rather than production.
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
The efficiency numbers tell a clear story, and it’s not the one this spread is selling. Ohio State ranks 44th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency at 116.9, while Oregon checks in at 180th with a 107.2 mark. That’s not just a gap – it’s a chasm. The Buckeyes are generating nearly 10 more points per 100 possessions against average competition, and that matters enormously.
On the defensive side, Ohio State’s adjusted defensive rating of 101.3 ranks 52nd nationally. Oregon’s 109.6 mark sits at 218th. Do the math over 70 possessions – the approximate pace we’ll see in this game – and you’re looking at a projected margin that should have the Buckeyes favored by 5-7 points, not catching 2.5 to 3.
Here’s what jumps off the page from collegebasketballdata.com: Ohio State’s 61.0% effective field goal percentage ranks 7th nationally. Oregon’s 47.3% eFG sits at 326th. That’s a 13.7-point gap in shooting efficiency, and it shows up in the raw shooting numbers too. The Buckeyes are hitting 53.0% from the field (3rd nationally) while the Ducks are at 40.3% (342nd). This isn’t a close matchup – it’s a mismatch disguised as a pick ’em.
Ohio State’s Situation
The Buckeyes lost a heartbreaker to Nebraska in their last outing, 72-69, but don’t let that cloud the bigger picture. This is an elite offensive team that’s scoring 88.4 points per game (32nd nationally) with a true shooting percentage of 65.4% that ranks 5th in the country. Bruce Thornton is the engine, averaging 20.1 points per game, but the balance is what makes this offense so dangerous. Four players averaging double figures, and they’re moving the ball with 17.1 assists per game (55th nationally).
The defense has been legitimately good too. That 98.0 defensive rating ranks 59th nationally, and they’re absolutely shutting down the three-point line – opponents are hitting just 26.7% from deep, which ranks 15th in the country. Here’s why that matters: Oregon lives on the offensive glass, ranking 5th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage at 38.4%. But when you can’t make your first shot and the defense is locked in on perimeter shooters, those second chances don’t translate to efficient offense.
The one concern is Ohio State’s rebounding – they rank 349th in offensive rebounding percentage at just 24.5%. Against Oregon’s strength on the glass, that could be problematic. But I keep coming back to those shooting efficiency numbers because they’re just too extreme to ignore.
Oregon’s Situation
The Ducks are 4-5 for a reason, and it starts with their inability to score efficiently. That 106.0 offensive rating ranks 277th nationally, and you can see why when you look at the shooting numbers. They’re hitting just 40.3% from the field and 31.6% from three (255th nationally). Jackson Shelstad leads the team at 15.9 points per game, but this is a squad that struggles to create quality shots.
Where Oregon does excel is on the offensive glass. That 38.4% offensive rebounding rate is elite, ranking 5th nationally. Nate Bittle (7.3 rebounds per game) and Kwame Evans Jr. (7.1 boards) give them size and second-chance opportunities. They’re also decent at protecting the rim with 4.2 blocks per game (88th nationally).
But here’s the matchup problem: Oregon’s defense ranks 248th nationally in defensive rating at 110.4. They’re allowing opponents to shoot 44.9% from the field (247th) and 33.5% from three (219th). Against an Ohio State offense that ranks 7th in effective field goal percentage, that’s a recipe for getting torched. The Ducks lost to Gonzaga 91-82 and to Rutgers 88-85 in recent games – both were track meets where their defense couldn’t get stops.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game lives and dies on Ohio State’s shooting efficiency against Oregon’s porous defense. The Buckeyes are converting shots at an elite level – that 61.0% effective field goal percentage against Oregon’s 247th-ranked field goal percentage defense is the mismatch that seals it for me.
Oregon will try to control the game through offensive rebounding and pace, but here’s the problem: Ohio State doesn’t turn the ball over much (11.8 per game, 142nd nationally), which limits transition opportunities. And when you’re forcing the Ducks to score in the halfcourt against a defense that ranks 15th nationally in opponent three-point percentage, you’re playing into the Buckeyes’ hands.
The tempo should favor Ohio State too. The Buckeyes play at 70.5 possessions per game (119th) while Oregon is at 68.6 (176th). In a slightly slower game, every possession matters more, and the team with the massive efficiency advantage – that’s Ohio State – should control the outcome.
Let me walk you through the key statistical edges: Ohio State is plus-13.7 percentage points in effective field goal percentage. They’re plus-8 points per 100 possessions in adjusted offensive efficiency. They’re plus-8.3 points per 100 possessions in adjusted defensive efficiency. Over a 70-possession game, that projects to a double-digit Ohio State win.
My Play
I’m backing Ohio State +2.5 to +3 with confidence, and I’m putting 2 units on this. The efficiency gap is too massive to ignore, and we’re getting points with the better team. The main risk here is if Oregon’s offensive rebounding completely overwhelms the Buckeyes and they get 15-20 second-chance points. I’ve considered all of that, and the shooting efficiency advantage is still too extreme to pass up.
Ohio State should win this game straight up by 6-10 points. I’m projecting something like Ohio State 79, Oregon 72. The Buckeyes will control the game with their elite shooting, limit Oregon’s transition opportunities, and lock down the perimeter. Getting 2.5 to 3 points with a team that has an 18-point efficiency advantage? That’s value, and that’s why I’m hammering the Buckeyes on the road.
