The Buckeyes look to complete a perfect West Coast road swing following their win over Oregon. Our analytical preview breaks down why Ohio State’s elite shooting efficiency makes them a strong ATS pick against the Huskies in Seattle.
The Setup: Ohio State at Washington
Washington’s laying 2.5 points at home against Ohio State on Sunday night, and at first glance, this feels like a coin flip between two Big Ten programs still figuring out their conference identity. But here’s the thing – when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this line is actually giving us some real value, just not on the side most people will expect. The Buckeyes come in at 7-1 with an adjusted net efficiency of 15.6 (#38 nationally), while Washington sits at 6-3 with a 10.4 adjusted net (#69). That’s a five-point gap in efficiency that should have Ohio State favored on a neutral court, yet we’re getting points with the better team because of home court. Let me walk you through why this Washington home court advantage might be overvalued in this spot.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: Ohio State at Washington
Date: January 11, 2026
Time: 6:00 PM ET
Venue: Alaska Airlines Arena, Seattle, WA
Spread: Washington -2.5 (DraftKings) / -2 (Bovada)
Total: 153.5
Conference: Big Ten
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
Here’s why this line makes sense on the surface but breaks down under scrutiny. Washington’s getting the home nod because Alaska Airlines Arena is a legitimate venue, and the books are giving them roughly 3-4 points for that advantage. Standard stuff. But the efficiency gap tells a different story entirely.
Ohio State ranks 44th in adjusted offensive efficiency at 116.9, compared to Washington’s 101st-ranked 111.7. That’s not just a five-point gap – it’s the difference between an elite offense and a merely competent one. The Buckeyes are shooting 53.0% from the field (#3 nationally) with a 61.0% effective field goal percentage (#7). Those aren’t empty numbers. That’s a team that’s getting high-quality looks and converting them at an elite rate.
On the defensive side, both teams are surprisingly similar. Ohio State checks in at 101.3 adjusted defensive efficiency (#52), while Washington sits at 101.2 (#51). Essentially identical. So we’re not dealing with a defensive mismatch – this game lives and dies on whether Washington can slow down an Ohio State offense that’s been surgical all season.
The tempo factor matters here too. Ohio State plays at a 70.5 pace (#119), while Washington crawls at 67.4 (#222). Over 68-69 possessions, that efficiency gap compounds. Do that math over a full game, and you’re looking at Ohio State having a 5-6 point advantage in expected output before we even factor in matchup specifics.
Ohio State’s Situation
The Buckeyes are rolling offensively, averaging 88.4 points per game (#32) with that elite 53.0% field goal percentage. Bruce Thornton is the engine, putting up 20.1 points per game (#32 nationally) while distributing 4.0 assists. But here’s what makes this offense dangerous – they’ve got four legitimate scoring threats. Christoph Tilly adds 14.1, John Mobley Jr. chips in 14.0, and Devin Royal contributes 13.4. That’s balance you can’t scheme away.
The concerning part? Ohio State is 349th in offensive rebounding percentage at just 24.5%. They’re not getting second chances, which means they need to be efficient on first looks. Fortunately, they are – that 65.4% true shooting percentage (#5) tells you they’re not wasting possessions.
Recent form is a mixed bag. They just won at Oregon 72-62, but they’ve dropped two of their last five, including a one-point loss to North Carolina and a three-point home loss to Nebraska. This isn’t a team steamrolling everyone, but they’re finding ways to win on the road in tough environments.
Washington’s Situation
Washington’s got one elite weapon in Hannes Steinbach, who’s averaging 18.5 points and 12.8 rebounds per game. That rebounding number ranks 2nd nationally, and it’s a legitimate advantage against an Ohio State team that doesn’t crash the glass. Wesley Yates III adds 16.2 points, giving them a second scoring option, but after that, it gets thin.
The Huskies’ offensive struggles are real. They’re shooting just 44.6% from the field (#219) with a 50.4% effective field goal percentage (#251). Compare that to Ohio State’s elite shooting numbers, and you see the problem. Washington’s offense is predicated on offensive rebounding – they rank 81st at 34.3% – and grinding out possessions. That works against teams that play their pace, but Ohio State’s going to push tempo and force Washington into more transition situations.
The recent schedule is brutal context too. Washington just lost at Purdue and Indiana before beating Utah at home. They’ve been on the road in hostile Big Ten environments and looked overmatched. Now they’re home, but against another quality Big Ten opponent that matches up better than those two losses.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
I keep coming back to those shooting efficiency numbers because they’re just too extreme to ignore. Ohio State’s 61.0% eFG% against Washington’s 50.4% is an 11-point gap. Over 68 possessions, that’s the entire ballgame right there.
Here’s the matchup that seals it for me: Ohio State’s perimeter defense against Washington’s perimeter offense. The Buckeyes are holding opponents to 26.7% from three (#15 nationally). Washington’s shooting 34.6% from deep (#144), which is respectable, but they’re going to see far fewer open looks than they’re used to. Meanwhile, Ohio State’s shooting 36.9% from three against a Washington defense that’s allowing 33.8% (#237). The Huskies can’t defend the three-point line consistently.
Washington’s advantage is on the glass. That 34.3% offensive rebounding rate against Ohio State’s 24.5% defensive rebounding rate means extra possessions. But here’s the thing – you need to convert those extra possessions. Washington’s offensive efficiency suggests they won’t capitalize enough to overcome Ohio State’s shooting advantage.
The pace battle matters. If Washington can slow this to 65 possessions, they’ve got a chance. But Ohio State’s going to push every opportunity, and in transition, the Buckeyes’ shooting efficiency becomes even more deadly.
My Play
Ohio State +2.5 (2 units)
I’ve considered the home court advantage, the rebounding mismatch, and Washington’s defensive numbers, and the shooting efficiency gap is still too massive to ignore. Ohio State is the better team by every meaningful metric – adjusted efficiency, offensive rating, shooting percentages, and true shooting. We’re getting points with a team that should be favored on a neutral court.
The main risk here is if Washington dominates the glass and turns this into a 60-possession rock fight. Steinbach could go for 20 and 15, and if Washington hits 10-12 offensive rebounds, they’ll have enough extra possessions to stay close. But I trust Ohio State’s offensive execution more than I trust Washington’s ability to grind out a low-possession win.
I’m projecting Ohio State 78, Washington 74. Give me the Buckeyes plus the points, and I’ll feel good about it through the final whistle. This line is a gift.
