Iowa State enters Hilton Coliseum as a legitimate national title contender with a top-tier efficiency rating that dwarfs the Cowboys’ metrics. While both teams are undefeated, the massive 18-point gap in adjusted net efficiency makes the Cyclones our preferred ATS pick.
The Setup: Oklahoma State at Iowa State
Iowa State’s laying 18.5 at home against Oklahoma State, and both teams are rolling into Hilton Coliseum undefeated at 9-0. I can already hear the pushback: How can you lay nearly three touchdowns when both squads haven’t lost yet? Here’s the thing – not all undefeated teams are created equal, and the data from collegebasketballdata.com tells a story that’s impossible to ignore. The Cyclones are a legitimate national title contender sitting at #4 in adjusted net efficiency with a ridiculous 31.9 rating. Oklahoma State? They’re at #47 with a 13.7 adjusted net. That’s an 18.2-point gap in the efficiency metrics, and guess what the spread is? Yeah, 18.5. This line isn’t inflated – it’s damn near perfect. Let me walk you through why Iowa State covers this number in what should be a statement game in Big 12 play.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: Oklahoma State Cowboys (9-0) @ Iowa State Cyclones (9-0)
Date: January 10, 2026
Time: 4:00 PM ET
Venue: Hilton Coliseum, Ames, IA
Spread: Iowa State -18.5
Total: 164.5
Moneyline: Iowa State -4000, Oklahoma State +1200
Why This Number Makes Sense
The efficiency gap here is absolutely massive, and it’s not just one area – Iowa State dominates across the board. According to collegebasketballdata.com, the Cyclones rank #2 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency at 126.6, while Oklahoma State sits at #54 with 116.0. That’s a 10.6-point advantage per 100 possessions on offense alone. But here’s where it gets really interesting – Iowa State’s adjusted defensive efficiency ranks #7 at 94.7, compared to Oklahoma State’s #69 ranking at 102.3. That’s another 7.6-point swing.
Do that math over a full game, and you’re looking at an 18-point expected margin. The books didn’t pull this number out of thin air – they’re pricing in exactly what the advanced metrics tell us. Iowa State shoots 54.9% from the field (#1 nationally) and 43.8% from three (#3), producing an elite 62.8% effective field goal percentage that ranks third in the country. Oklahoma State? They’re at 32.0% from three (#242) and 55.5% eFG% (#72). That’s not just a shooting advantage – it’s why Iowa State scores 131.9 points per 100 possessions compared to Oklahoma State’s 118.4.
The tempo factor actually favors the favorite here too. Oklahoma State wants to run at 77.1 possessions per game (#5 nationally), but Iowa State’s defensive rating of 90.2 (#12) means they can control pace while still getting out in transition when they force turnovers – and they’re generating 11.1 steals per game (#7). Here’s why this line makes sense: Iowa State is simply better at everything that matters in basketball.
Oklahoma State’s Situation
The Cowboys are undefeated, but that record is fool’s gold when you dig into the schedule and that ugly loss at Texas Tech (80-102) that’s sitting right there in their last five games. They score 91.3 points per game (#15), but they’re doing it against defenses that have allowed 76.4 points per game (#255 in opponent scoring defense). That’s a red flag – they haven’t faced elite defensive pressure yet.
Jaylen Curry is their facilitator at 5.1 assists per game (#71 nationally), and they’ve got four guys averaging between 14.6 and 15.9 points. Balanced scoring is nice, but here’s the problem: they turn it over 14.0 times per game (#300) and rank #285 in offensive rebounding percentage at just 28.3%. Against Iowa State’s ball-hawking defense that forces turnovers and converts them into 236 points (compared to Oklahoma State’s 159), those weaknesses become catastrophic.
The Cowboys’ defensive rating of 99.3 (#82) isn’t terrible, but it’s nowhere near equipped to handle what Iowa State does offensively. They defend the three reasonably well at 29.3% allowed (#54), but when you’re facing the #3 three-point shooting team in the country, “reasonably well” isn’t going to cut it.
Iowa State’s Situation
The Cyclones are a legitimate monster, and Hilton Coliseum is one of the toughest venues in college basketball. They just went into Baylor and won 70-60, then demolished West Virginia 80-59. Their last five games show complete dominance – no opponent has scored more than 61 points against them in that stretch.
Milan Momcilovic leads the way at 18.3 points per game (#81 nationally), but the real story is the two-headed playmaking monster of Joshua Jefferson (5.4 assists, #46) and Tamin Lipsey (5.7 assists, #40). That’s elite ball movement creating those ridiculous shooting percentages. When you’re shooting 54.9% from the field and 43.8% from three, you don’t need to crash the offensive glass – though their 33.4% offensive rebounding rate (#105) is still solid.
Defensively, they’re allowing just 64.6 points per game (#21) with a defensive rating of 90.2 that ranks #12 nationally. They force 11.1 steals per game and turn defense into offense better than almost anyone in the country. The Cyclones’ turnover ratio of 0.1 (#17) means they protect the ball while creating chaos for opponents. That’s a 10-point swing right there when you compare it to Oklahoma State’s turnover issues.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game lives and dies on Iowa State’s ability to exploit Oklahoma State’s two critical weaknesses: three-point defense and ball security. The Cowboys allow 29.3% from three, which sounds decent until you realize Iowa State shoots 43.8% from deep. That’s a 14.5% gap in three-point efficiency, and over 25 three-point attempts, that’s roughly 10-11 extra points for Iowa State.
The turnover battle is even more lopsided. Oklahoma State coughs it up 14.0 times per game (#300) while Iowa State forces 11.1 steals (#7) and only turns it over 10.1 times themselves (#43). The Cyclones have scored 236 points off turnovers compared to Oklahoma State’s 159. When you’re generating an extra 77 points off turnovers through nine games, that’s 8.6 more points per game from that category alone.
I keep coming back to those shooting efficiency numbers because they’re just too extreme to ignore. Iowa State’s 62.8% eFG% (#3) against Oklahoma State’s defensive profile creates an offensive efficiency that Oklahoma State simply cannot match on the other end. The Cowboys’ 55.5% eFG% is solid, but against Iowa State’s #7 adjusted defense, that number is going to crater.
The pace factor actually helps Iowa State here. Yes, Oklahoma State wants to run at 77.1 possessions (#5), but Iowa State controls tempo at 71.6 (#85) while still being devastating in transition with 133 fast break points. The Cyclones will dictate the pace, and in a more controlled game, the efficiency gap becomes even more pronounced. Over 72 possessions at a 20-point per-100 efficiency gap, you’re looking at a 14-15 point margin before you even factor in home court.
My Play
The Pick: Iowa State -18.5 (3 units)
I’m laying the points with confidence here. The adjusted efficiency gap of 18.2 points matches this spread almost perfectly, and every matchup advantage points to Iowa State. The Cyclones shoot better, defend better, protect the ball better, and they’re playing at home where Hilton Coliseum is an absolute nightmare for opponents. Oklahoma State’s undefeated record is impressive, but they haven’t faced anything close to this level of competition.
The main risk here is if Oklahoma State’s tempo forces Iowa State into an up-and-down game that creates more variance, or if the Cyclones get complacent with a big lead and take their foot off the gas. I’ve considered all of that, and the talent and efficiency gap is still too massive to ignore. Iowa State has been crushing quality opponents – that Baylor road win is legit – and they’re not going to let an undefeated Oklahoma State team come into their building and keep it close.
Give me Iowa State 88, Oklahoma State 67. The Cyclones make a statement in Big 12 play and send the Cowboys back to Stillwater with their first loss and a reality check about where they actually stand in the conference hierarchy.
