Bash breaks down Indiana at Ohio State with the Buckeyes laying 4.5 at home. The adjusted efficiency gap is just 1.2 points, but Indiana’s five-game sweep in the series and superior defensive metrics suggest this spread is inflated by recent narrative over substance.

Bash breaks down Louisville at Miami, where the Cardinals bring a top-12 adjusted net rating into Coral Gables as slight underdogs. The metrics scream Louisville superiority despite Miami’s home record.

The situational spot here heavily favors the visitors. BYU is reeling from defensive breakdowns and the long-term absence of Richie Saunders, while Texas Tech ranks #7 nationally in three-point accuracy. With the Cougars sporting a 5-12 ATS record in conference play, there is zero reason to lay points with the home team in this systematic mismatch.

Tennessee dominated the glass in the first meeting, but Vanderbilt’s #11 national rank in turnover ratio suggests they won’t gift-wrap extra possessions this time around. With Tyler Tanner averaging 19.0 PPG and Duke Miles providing veteran poise, the Commodores have the shooting splits to test a Tennessee team that may be without star freshman Nate Ament.

Florida enters this matchup leading the country in rebounding (45.7 RPG), creating a massive 11.2-point efficiency chasm over the Wildcats. Even on Senior Day, Kentucky’s 4-9 record in Quadrant 1 games suggests they may lack the defensive stops required to halt Thomas Haugh and Alex Condon in the paint.

Duke’s laying 17.5 against North Carolina in a rivalry rematch, but Bash sees value on the Tar Heels despite losing Caleb Wilson. The model projects a much tighter margin than the market suggests.

Bash breaks down Miami (OH) at Ohio in a MAC regular-season finale, examining how Evan Ipsaro’s season-ending injury has reshaped the RedHawks’ profile and why the model sees 2.5 points of value on the Bobcats at home.

Bash breaks down Friday’s MVC tournament opener between Valparaiso and Bradley, finding value on the Beacons at +4 despite Bradley’s superior efficiency metrics and RPI ranking.

Bash breaks down why Drake +11.5 offers value in Friday’s MVC Tournament semifinal against Belmont, despite the Bulldogs’ ugly 1-9 recent stretch. With Belmont missing key facilitator Nic McClain and Drake already proving they can compete in this matchup, the market’s overreacting to recent form.

Bash breaks down Friday’s MVC Tournament quarterfinal between UIC and Murray State, where nearly identical net ratings create a coin-flip spread but UIC’s defensive consistency and conference ATS dominance offer value at +1.5.