College Basketball Picks

Michigan State’s 12.5-point spread against Northwestern looks justified when you examine the massive defensive and rebounding advantages. The Spartans’ elite defense and glass control should overwhelm the Wildcats at the Breslin Center.

Iowa State travels to Waco as 4.5-point road favorites, and the efficiency numbers back it up. The Cyclones’ #2 adjusted offense meets Baylor’s #263 adjusted defense in a matchup that screams Iowa State cover. Bash breaks down why this spread is actually too low.

Virginia’s 12.5-point spread over California looks steep until you examine the efficiency numbers. The Cavaliers rank #9 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency while dominating the glass at #15 in rebounding. Cal’s #315 offensive rebounding rate creates a massive mismatch that should decide this ACC clash.

Purdue’s laying 16.5-17.5 against Washington in Big Ten play, and the efficiency numbers tell me this spread is actually too low. Bryan Bash breaks down why the Boilermakers’ elite three-point shooting and offensive efficiency create a massive mismatch against Washington’s vulnerable perimeter defense at Mackey Arena.

Wake Forest is laying 1.5 at home against Miami, but the efficiency numbers tell a different story. Miami ranks #16 nationally in adjusted net efficiency while Wake sits at #50 – a 6.6-point gap that should have the Hurricanes favored. Bash breaks down why Miami’s elite defense and balanced offense make them the play catching points on the road.

SMU’s 9-1 record looks impressive, but Clemson’s elite efficiency numbers and home-court tempo control make the Tigers a strong play catching 4.5 points. Bash breaks down why the pace battle decides this ACC showdown.

Alabama visits undefeated Vanderbilt as 4-point underdogs in a clash of elite offenses. Bash breaks down why the Commodores’ #1 adjusted offensive efficiency and tempo control at Memorial Gymnasium make them the play in this SEC opener.

Saint Louis brings an 8-1 record and the nation’s 13th-ranked scoring offense into the Siegel Center, but VCU’s elite adjusted defensive efficiency and home court advantage make them the rightful favorite at -2.5 in this A-10 showdown.

Kansas lays 7.5 at Allen Fieldhouse against TCU in a Big 12 matchup that hinges on elite defense versus poor shooting. Bryan Bash breaks down the efficiency gap and explains why the Jayhawks should control this game from start to finish.