College Basketball Picks

Michigan State’s elite defense ranks 4th nationally in adjusted efficiency, and they’re getting points against an undefeated but untested Nebraska squad. The efficiency gap is massive, and the Spartans are the better team getting the better number.

In a game projected for 75 possessions, UC San Diego’s 7th-ranked three-point shooting (40.9%) is the ultimate equalizer. We analyze the 170.5 total and the top ATS pick for this Thursday night tilt.

Montana State is laying 2.5 at home against Northern Colorado in a Big Sky opener, but the efficiency numbers tell a different story. Bryan Bash breaks down why the better team is getting points in Bozeman.

Northern Iowa’s nation-leading defense faces Indiana State’s struggling offense in a New Year’s Day MVC clash. Bash breaks down why the Panthers’ elite defensive efficiency and home-court advantage make them a strong play at -9.5.

Belmont’s 9-1 and sitting 81 spots higher than Bradley in adjusted net efficiency. The Bruins’ elite defense ranks #5 nationally in opponent field goal percentage, and they’re facing a Bradley squad that ranks #334 in rebounding. Bash breaks down why the 5.5-point spread might actually be light for this MVC showdown at Curb Event Center.

UConn’s laying 11.5 on the road at Xavier, and the efficiency gap tells the whole story. The nation’s 10th-ranked adjusted net efficiency team faces the 116th-ranked squad in a Big East matchup where defensive dominance should decide the outcome. Bash breaks down why the Huskies cover comfortably.

George Washington brings the 25th-ranked adjusted offense to Richmond, but their 308th-ranked defensive rating is a glaring weakness. Bash breaks down why the Spiders’ elite three-point defense and home-court advantage make them the play as small underdogs in this A-10 matchup.

NC State lays 9.5 at home against Wake Forest in an ACC clash, and the efficiency numbers tell a clear story. The Wolfpack’s 11th-ranked adjusted offense should dominate despite Wake’s solid defensive credentials. Bash breaks down why this spread makes perfect sense.

Bowling Green lays 4.5 points at home against undefeated Miami (OH), and Bash breaks down why the adjusted efficiency numbers and tempo advantage make the Falcons a strong play despite the RedHawks’ perfect record.

Butler’s 7-2 with an explosive offense, but Creighton’s pace control at home could be the great equalizer. Bash breaks down why the Bluejays’ ability to slow this game down makes them the play at -5.5 in this Big East matchup.