Lamar’s laying 4 at home against Nicholls in a Southland Conference matchup, but the Cardinals’ 4-9 home ATS record and five-game losing streak make this number feel generous. Bash breaks down the efficiency metrics and explains why the Colonels’ pace and perimeter shooting could keep this one tight.

Stephen F. Austin is laying 13 points at home against New Orleans in a Southland Conference clash. The Lumberjacks are 25-3 with elite defensive metrics, but can they cover double digits against a scrappy Privateers team that’s 13-6 ATS in conference play? Bash breaks down the efficiency gap and finds value on the road dog.

McNeese lays 11 points at home against UT Rio Grande Valley in a Southland Conference matchup Monday night. The Cowboys’ elite offensive rating and dominant rebounding edge make this spread look conservative—Bash breaks down why the market might be undervaluing the home favorite.

Louisville heads to Chapel Hill as 2.5-point road favorites, and the efficiency numbers back it up. The Cardinals boast a 5.3-point net rating edge and rank #10 nationally in adjusted net efficiency. Despite North Carolina’s perfect 16-0 home record, Louisville’s elite offense and pace could finally crack the Dean Dome. Bash breaks down why the spread and over both offer value.

Houston’s 2.5-point spread at Allen Fieldhouse looks light until you dig into the efficiency numbers. The #2 Cougars hold a massive 6.5-point net rating edge and a 10.9-percentage-point offensive rebounding advantage over #8 Kansas. In a 65-possession grinder, those second chances could be the difference.

Siena’s laying 5.5 at home against Saint Peter’s in a MAAC rematch, but the efficiency numbers suggest this spread is too low. The Saints hold a 5.4-point net rating edge, and in a projected 63-possession grind, superior shooting quality should prevail over offensive rebounding chaos.

Merrimack’s 10-0 at home and laying 7.5 against an Iona team that’s struggled mightily on the road in MAAC play. The efficiency numbers suggest this spread might be undervaluing the Warriors’ defensive dominance.

Tulsa lays 22.5 at home against UTSA in an American Conference mismatch. With a 33.5-point efficiency gap and elite shooting versus bottom-tier offense, the Golden Hurricane are positioned to dominate. Bash breaks down why the spread makes sense and where the value lies.

Towson heads to Drexel as a 2.5-point road favorite in a CAA battle between two .500 teams. The Tigers’ elite offensive rebounding and superior defensive efficiency make them the play despite the road spot, while the total looks undervalued at 131.5.

Youngstown State lays 3 points at home against Northern Kentucky in a Horizon League matchup featuring two teams separated by less than a point in adjusted net rating. The market says coin flip, but the Norse have dominated this series going 7-3 ATS in the last ten meetings.