Houston’s 2.5-point spread at Allen Fieldhouse looks light until you dig into the efficiency numbers. The #2 Cougars hold a massive 6.5-point net rating edge and a 10.9-percentage-point offensive rebounding advantage over #8 Kansas. In a 65-possession grinder, those second chances could be the difference.

Siena’s laying 5.5 at home against Saint Peter’s in a MAAC rematch, but the efficiency numbers suggest this spread is too low. The Saints hold a 5.4-point net rating edge, and in a projected 63-possession grind, superior shooting quality should prevail over offensive rebounding chaos.

Merrimack’s 10-0 at home and laying 7.5 against an Iona team that’s struggled mightily on the road in MAAC play. The efficiency numbers suggest this spread might be undervaluing the Warriors’ defensive dominance.

Tulsa lays 22.5 at home against UTSA in an American Conference mismatch. With a 33.5-point efficiency gap and elite shooting versus bottom-tier offense, the Golden Hurricane are positioned to dominate. Bash breaks down why the spread makes sense and where the value lies.

Towson heads to Drexel as a 2.5-point road favorite in a CAA battle between two .500 teams. The Tigers’ elite offensive rebounding and superior defensive efficiency make them the play despite the road spot, while the total looks undervalued at 131.5.

Youngstown State lays 3 points at home against Northern Kentucky in a Horizon League matchup featuring two teams separated by less than a point in adjusted net rating. The market says coin flip, but the Norse have dominated this series going 7-3 ATS in the last ten meetings.

Wright State’s laying 4 to 4.5 at home against Robert Morris, but the efficiency numbers suggest this line is about two possessions too generous to the Raiders. Bash breaks down why the Colonials’ elite three-point shooting and offensive rebounding edge make them the play in this Horizon League rematch.

North Texas lays 2.5 at home against Florida Atlantic in an American Conference defensive battle. The Mean Green rank 43rd in adjusted defensive efficiency while FAU struggles on the road at 4-7. Breaking down why this total of 140.5 screams under in a pace-down slugfest.

Memphis lays 4.5 at home against UAB in a rematch the Tigers dominated two weeks ago, but the efficiency numbers tell a different story. UAB’s elite ball security and rebounding edge make them live underdogs in a game the market might be overvaluing.

Iowa ranks 22nd nationally in effective field goal percentage and has held seven different opponents to 60 points or fewer this season. With Wisconsin struggling to find defensive consistency lately, this matchup comes down to whether the Badgers can outscore a team that specialized in slowing the game to a crawl.