Miami’s #1 ranked effective field goal percentage (62.4%) meets a Bowling Green defense that ranks 68th nationally in efficiency. Given the efficiency gap, taking the RedHawks as our ATS pick makes the most sense as they look to extend their 15-game home win streak.

While VCU is 6-2 on the road, they haven’t faced a scoring machine like Saint Louis, which averages 95.0 points per game at home. The rebounding disparity is exactly why we’re locking in this ATS pick before the 7:00 PM tip-off on ESPN2.

Akron heads to Ball State laying 14.5 points in a MAC clash, and while the 27.7-point net rating gap screams blowout, the Cardinals have covered five straight in this series by grinding the pace to a crawl. Bash breaks down why the market might be right to show Ball State some respect.

Oakland’s laying 6 against Green Bay in a Horizon League matchup, but the efficiency numbers suggest this spread is light. With Oakland ranking #74 in adjusted offensive efficiency against Green Bay’s #312 defense, the Golden Grizzlies’ pace and rebounding edge should carry them to a comfortable home victory.

The market is overvaluing home court for an Iona team that has failed to cover in four of their last five outings. Saint Peter’s defensive aggressiveness is the X-factor, making them Bryan Bash’s best bet to pull off the road “upset” in New Rochelle.

The market is overreacting to Marist’s recent slump, but the talent gap hasn’t changed. Manhattan’s defense is one of the worst in the country, making the Red Foxes Bryan Bash’s best bet to walk into Draddy Gymnasium and secure a multi-possession cover.

Milwaukee visits Detroit Mercy in a Horizon League battle between statistical twins. With the Panthers laying just 1.5 at home, Bash breaks down why the market sees this as essentially a pick ’em—and why Milwaukee’s elite offensive rebounding could be the difference in a tight conference slugfest.

Brown’s #44 national defensive rating is elite, but their #345 ranked offense creates a razor-thin margin for error. Given the slow pace environment, taking Princeton as our ATS pick makes the most sense as they’ve covered in eight of their last 11 trips to Providence.

Purdue’s laying 12 at home against Indiana, and the Boilermakers are 0-5 ATS in their last five at Mackey. The efficiency gap is real, but this spread is begging you to take the Hoosiers. Here’s why the numbers say Indiana covers in a Big Ten clash with real stakes.

Montana State travels to Weber State as a slight favorite in a Big Sky showdown, but the efficiency numbers suggest the Bobcats should be laying more than a point. Bryan Bash breaks down why Montana State’s defensive edge and superior net rating make them the play at Dee Events Center.