UC San Diego’s elite shooting meets UC Davis at home in a Big West battle. The Tritons are laying 2.5 to 3 points, but the efficiency numbers tell us why this spread might be giving us value on the road favorite.

UNC Wilmington heads to William & Mary as 1.5-point road favorites in a CAA clash that pits contrasting styles. Bryan Bash breaks down why the Tribe’s tempo advantage and home court make them the right side despite the Seahawks’ impressive 9-1 record.

South Florida is a 2.5-point road favorite at UAB despite losing there three weeks ago in a 109-106 shootout. The efficiency numbers explain the spread, but that 166.5 total? Bryan Bash breaks down why the over is the play in this American Conference rematch.

Wisconsin brings elite offensive efficiency into Penn State, laying 5.5 points against a Nittany Lions team on a five-game skid. Bash breaks down why the Badgers’ firepower should overcome their defensive issues in this Big Ten matchup.

Arizona’s laying 13.5 to 14 points at home against Cincinnati, and the efficiency numbers tell you exactly why. The Wildcats rank 6th nationally in adjusted net efficiency while the Bearcats sit at 128th. Cincinnati’s elite defense will keep it close early, but their 318th-ranked offensive rating means they can’t score enough to hang around at McKale Memorial Center.

Syracuse lays 3.5 to 4 points at home against Virginia Tech in a defensive battle at the JMA Wireless Dome. The Orange bring elite defense (92.8 rating, 25th nationally) but struggle offensively (301st in offensive rating). Virginia Tech counters with superior adjusted efficiency and elite ball security (8.9 turnovers, 8th nationally). Bash breaks down why the Hokies can stay within the number in this ACC rock fight.

USC lays 5.5 to 6 points at home against Northwestern, and the efficiency numbers tell you everything. The Trojans rank 28th in adjusted offensive efficiency while Northwestern’s defense sits at 202nd in defensive rating. With the Wildcats dropping five straight, Bash breaks down why USC should cover at the Galen Center.

Notre Dame enters on a four-game losing streak and without its leading scorer. Read our full preview to see the prediction for whether the Irish can find a new offensive rhythm.

Nebraska’s laying 11.5 to 12 points at home against Washington, and the efficiency data backs up every point of this spread. Bryan Bash breaks down why the Cornhuskers’ elite defense and ball movement should overwhelm a struggling Huskies squad.

Kentucky lays 7.5 points at home against Texas in a classic SEC strength-on-strength matchup. The Wildcats’ elite defense (#21 in adjusted defensive efficiency) meets the Longhorns’ potent offense (#37 in adjusted offensive efficiency) at Rupp Arena, where the efficiency gap and home court advantage make this number look right.