College Basketball Picks

Wisconsin lays 7.5 at home against USC in a critical Big Ten tempo clash. The Badgers’ elite offense faces a Trojans team reeling from three losses in five games. Breaking down the efficiency numbers and pace differential that will decide this matchup.

Arkansas enters as a 9.5-point home favorite, and my ATS pick (taking the -9.5) centers on the Razorbacks’ blistering 89.8 PPG scoring average. While LSU has the size to contest the glass, their 1-5 SEC record and 235th-ranked defensive rating suggest they won’t be able to keep pace with Darius Acuff Jr. and the Hogs.

Duke’s laying 17.5 at Cameron Indoor against Wake Forest, and the efficiency numbers tell the story. With a 19.6-point gap in adjusted net rating and Duke’s elite defense facing Wake’s average offense, this spread makes sense. Bash breaks down why the Blue Devils cover.

Houston and Texas Tech meet again with the Cougars laying 1.5 points on the road. Both teams sport identical 18.4 adjusted net ratings, but Houston’s elite defense gives them the edge in this Big 12 slugfest. Bash breaks down why the under is the play.

Iowa State heads to Stillwater laying 9.5 against Oklahoma State in a Big 12 rematch. The Cyclones boast the nation’s best field goal percentage and a massive efficiency edge, but can they cover on the road against a fast-paced Cowboys team?

UConn’s laying 10.5 against Villanova in a Big East battle at Gampel Pavilion, and the spread’s built entirely on defensive dominance. The Huskies rank 10th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency while the Wildcats sit at 94th, creating a gap that’s magnified in a slow-paced, low-possession environment.

Virginia lays 6.5 to 7 points against North Carolina in a battle of 8-1 ACC contenders. The efficiency numbers tell the story: Virginia ranks 9th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency while Carolina sits 58th. Both teams defend, but the Cavaliers’ shooting edge from three (39.8% vs 31.7%) could be the difference in a methodical, half-court battle at JPJ Arena.

The Vols are seeking their fifth straight win over the Tide, but they are winless ATS on the road this year. Read our full preview for a sharp SEC basketball pick and an injury update on Troy Henderson.

Purdue lays 5.5 to 6 points against Illinois in a Big Ten heavyweight clash featuring two top-11 teams in adjusted net efficiency. Bryan Bash breaks down why the #3 adjusted offense in America deserves more respect than this spread suggests.

Lipscomb lays 6.5 at home against Florida Gulf Coast in an ASUN rematch. The Bisons just beat these same Eagles by seven on the road, and the efficiency gap—particularly FGCU’s #355 defensive rating—suggests this spread has room to grow.