The Ohio State Buckeyes host a struggling Penn State squad tonight in a pivotal Big Ten clash. With the Buckeyes favored by 12.5 points and sitting top-30 nationally in field goal percentage, our betting preview analyzes the efficiency gap to provide an expert ATS pick for this matchup in Columbus.
The Setup: Penn State at Ohio State
Ohio State’s laying 12.5 at home against Penn State, and on the surface, this looks like a comfortable number for the Buckeyes. But here’s what matters: Penn State comes in at 8-1 with an adjusted offensive efficiency ranked 40th nationally according to collegebasketballdata.com, while Ohio State sits at 7-1 with the 44th-ranked adjusted offense. The difference? Defense. Ohio State’s adjusted defensive efficiency ranks 52nd compared to Penn State’s 181st, and that 7.7-point gap in adjusted net rating tells you exactly why this spread sits in double digits. The Nittany Lions have elite ball security—they’re literally first in the nation in turnover ratio—but they’re walking into the Schottenstein Center having lost five straight, including a 27-point beatdown against Wisconsin. This number makes sense when you understand what’s broken.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: Penn State (8-1) @ Ohio State (7-1)
Date: January 26, 2026
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Venue: Schottenstein Center, Columbus, OH
Spread: Ohio State -12.5
Total: 154-154.5
Moneyline: Ohio State -1200, Penn State +700
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
Let’s work through the math. Ohio State’s adjusted offensive efficiency sits at 116.9, paired with a 101.3 adjusted defensive rating. Penn State checks in at 117.1 offensive and 108.0 defensive. When you factor in home court advantage—typically worth 3-4 points in efficiency metrics—and the defensive gap, you’re looking at a projected margin somewhere between 11 and 14 points. The market landed at 12.5, which tracks perfectly.
Here’s what seals it: Ohio State ranks 5th nationally in true shooting percentage at 65.4%, while Penn State ranks 50th at 60.5%. That’s a massive five-point gap in shooting efficiency, and it compounds when you consider Ohio State’s elite three-point defense. The Buckeyes hold opponents to just 26.7% from deep—15th in the country. Penn State shoots 37.6% from three, ranked 43rd nationally, but they’re about to face the stingiest perimeter defense they’ve seen during this losing streak.
The
Penn State Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
Penn State’s calling card is ball security. They rank 2nd nationally in turnovers per game at just 8.2 and first in turnover ratio. Kayden Mingo orchestrates the offense at 4.2 assists per game, and this team simply doesn’t beat itself with careless possessions. Their 50.8% field goal percentage ranks 26th nationally, and they generate quality looks—their 56.9% effective field goal percentage ranks 44th.
The problem? This team can’t defend anyone right now. They rank 253rd in opponent field goal percentage at 45.1%, and their 103.8 defensive rating ranks just 147th nationally. During this five-game skid, they’ve allowed 86.4 points per game. Freddie Dilione V and Melih Tunca provide secondary scoring punch, but when you rank 309th in rebounding at just 33.1 boards per game and 352nd in blocks at 1.6 per contest, you’re not getting stops or second chances. That’s a death sentence against efficient offensive teams.
Ohio State Breakdown: The Counterpoint
Bruce Thornton is the engine here, dropping 20.1 points per game—32nd nationally—while facilitating at 4.0 assists per contest. But what makes Ohio State dangerous is their shooting efficiency across the board. They rank 3rd nationally in field goal percentage at 53.0% and 7th in effective field goal percentage at 61.0%. That’s not fluky—that’s systematic offensive execution.
Christoph Tilly and John Mobley Jr. provide secondary scoring, both averaging over 14 points per game, and Devin Royal adds 13.4 as a versatile forward. The Buckeyes rank 55th in assists per game at 17.1, meaning they’re moving the ball and generating open looks. Defensively, they rank 115th in opponent field goal percentage at 41.8%, but that three-point defense—15th nationally at 26.7%—is elite. Their 98.0 defensive rating ranks 59th, and while they’re not a lockdown unit, they’re good enough when paired with that offensive firepower.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game comes down to Penn State’s inability to defend without fouling or protecting the rim. They rank 352nd in blocks per game, and Ohio State lives in the paint when they’re not knocking down threes. The Buckeyes have scored 310 points in the paint through eight games compared to Penn State’s 370, but that’s misleading—Ohio State’s efficiency metrics show they’re more selective and successful when they attack.
Penn State’s elite ball security keeps them in games, but Ohio State doesn’t generate turnovers at a high rate anyway—they rank 328th in steals per game at just 5.1. The Buckeyes don’t need to force mistakes; they’ll methodically execute in the half-court and exploit Penn State’s porous perimeter defense. When you can shoot 53% from the field as a team and face a defense allowing 45.1%, the math tilts heavily in your favor.
The rebounding battle matters too. Ohio State grabs 37.2 boards per game (168th nationally) compared to Penn State’s 33.1 (309th). That four-rebound gap creates extra possessions, and in a game with 68-70 total possessions, those extra opportunities add up quickly. Penn State’s 30.9% offensive rebounding rate ranks 188th, but Ohio State limits opponents on the offensive glass—their 24.5% offensive rebounding rate ranks 349th, meaning they prioritize transition defense over crashing the glass.
Bash’s Best Bet
I’m laying the 12.5 with Ohio State. Penn State’s five-game losing streak isn’t bad luck—it’s a defense that can’t get stops against quality opponents. Ohio State ranks 38th in adjusted net rating compared to Penn State’s 85th, and that 47-spot gap is legitimate. The Buckeyes shoot too efficiently, defend the three-point line too well, and play at home where they’re comfortable.
Penn State will take care of the ball and keep this from becoming a blowout early, but over 68-70 possessions, Ohio State’s efficiency advantages compound. I’m projecting something around 82-67, which covers the number with room to spare. The Buckeyes have the better defense, the better shooting, and the home court. That’s enough for me to lay the points with confidence.
