No. 7 Purdue Boilermakers (18-3 9-10-1) vs. Indiana Hoosiers (9-11 9-8 ATS) Assembly Hall, Bloomington, IN 7 PM EST Thursday February 4, 2010 on ESPN
by Jason Green at Predictem.com
Point Spread: Purdue +11.5 / Indiana -11.5
Tonight in a Big 10 match up the Indiana Hoosiers host the 7th ranked Purdue Boilermakers. The Hoosiers have lost 5 of their last 7 games, including their last 2, and are 2 games under .500 in conference play. After losing 3 games in a row Purdue has gotten back on track, as they have won their last 4 games all of which were in Big 10 play. The Hoosiers really need to start winning, starting with this game, or their chances of getting to the Big Dance will be a long shot.
This season Indiana is 7-6 at home and 3-5 in the Big 10 and Purdue is 3-2 on the road and 6-3 in the Big 10.
The Hoosiers have shot a combined 35.2% in back-to-back losses to Iowa and Illinois and they will need to improve upon that in this game, as the Boilermakers have a solid defensive team holding opponents to an average of 61.5 ppg on 40.6% shooting.
When Indiana shoots less than 42% from the field they have yet to win this season going 0-9.
The Hoosiers can win this game if they can shoot well from beyond the 3-point arc, as the Boilermakers are allowing opponents to shoot 36.1% from downtown this season.
Purdue has a solid inside-outside game with G E’Twaun Moore, F Robbie Hummel, and F/C JaJuan Johnson. These guys are the only Purdue players averaging in double figures and if Indiana allows this trio to have big scoring games they will lose their 3rd game in a row.
Indiana’s G Verdell Jones III (13.9 ppg) will have to score tonight, as he and F Christian Watford (12.4 ppg) are the only Hoosier players averaging in double figures. The Hoosies have struggled to score since they lost leading scorer Maurice Creek (16.4 ppg) to a possible season-ending knee injury.
In their last game Indiana lost to Illinois 72-70 on Saturday after blowing a 13-point lead in the first half. The high scorer for the Hoosiers in the game was Verdell Jones III going for 22 points, but he was only 5/20 from the field. For the game the Hoosiers were ice cold shooting 21/60 for a weak FG% of only 35%. On defense the Hoosiers allowed Illinois to shoot 25/51 for a FG% of 49%.
Purdue won their last game crushing Penn State 66-46 on Sunday. The high scorer for the Boilermakers in the game was Robbie Hummel going for 23 points on 9/17 shooting. For the game the Boilermakers shot 24/52 from the field for a FG% of 46.2%. On defense Purdue clamped down holding Penn State to only 15/48 for a FG% of 31.3%.
According to the Sagarin College Basketball Ratings Purdue ranks 10th (88.92) and Indiana only ranks 162nd (72.06).
Purdue is 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games, 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a road favorite, and is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win.
Indiana is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog, and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5.
Purdue has an Over record of 4-1 in their last 5 road games and has an Over record of 6-1 in their last 7 games as a road favorite.
Indiana has an Over record of 5-0 in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record, an Under record of 8-3 in their last 11 games, and an Over record of 7-2 in their last 9 games as a home underdog of 7.0-12.5.
In the last 4 meetings between these 2 teams the total has gone Over 4 times, Purdue is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games between these 2 and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games at Indiana.
Jason’s Pick: The Hoosiers are struggling big time, especially on offense, which is not good for them facing a Purdue team that is so solid on the defensive end of the court. Even though Purdue is on the road and a big favorite they will play well and win this game and cover the spread.