RBD breaks down three college basketball betting spots using his Asterisk model and Wrong Favorite handicapping approach.
Wyoming vs Wichita St
S Austin vs Tulsa
UNLV vs UC Irvine
THREE Picks for tonight
I was in downtown Las Vegas playing some poker when I heard a funny line at the table.
A college basketball tournament game was on TV and a guy was cheering for the Razorbacks.
Another player said, “What did you like about Arkansas that made you bet on them today?”
And the guy answered, “There’s no football.”
Funny AND true.
Although college basketball does have a solid size fan base among bettors, especially during tournaments, it’s a fact that if it was going up against football a lot of the action would go away.
And speaking of action I’ve got three spots I’m playing today.
The following gets a little bit technical/wonky, explaining the models I use, so if you just want picks jump to the bottom of the article.
The mathematical handicapping method I call the Asterisk Spot is based on a subcategory for both of my methods for choosing Wrong Favorites, WF1 and WF2. (And yes, I apologize for having to use stupid names, but I have to have some way to refer to them on my charts and in my articles.)
To qualify for the asterisk a game has to meet certain numerical parameters, and it doesn’t happen very often.
Fading the Asterisk Spot has been a solid money maker for me in the past, across all sports.
I’ve been handicapping it in the NBA but not buying the games. I haven’t really been paying much attention to it, focusing instead on profiting off the T1 Over spots (ANOTHER winner with that play last night, 46-26 now, a very solid 64% with more than 70 games charted in the data sample.)
But I’ll use one of the two NBA Asterisk Spots if I get any games that qualify in these final weeks of the season because WF1 is 7-11 on Hm games, a 61% Fade, and 6-12 for Rd games, a 67% Fade.
Asterisk Spots in the WF2 model are a combined 8-8 for no edge, no plays.
Those are NBA numbers.
I don’t have college basketball numbers because I haven’t been handicapping it steadily during the season, just intermittently.
But since the start of the tournaments I’ve been handicapping and charting daily.
And here’s what I have:
The WF1 Asterisk Spot spot is 1-3.
The WF2 Asterisk Spot is 1-4.
Yes, a combined 2-7 is a profitable Fade, but it’s also a very small data sample. I’ll ride with it today though, hoping I can jump on a trend early, before it starts to level out.
The main system WF1 has a record of 6-10, a very nice Fade at 62%.
The subcategory Asterisk Spot in WF1 is 1-3.
Today, WF1 says Wyoming and UNLV should be the Favorites in their games.
And both also qualify for the Asterisk Spot subcategory too, so I’m on Wichita State and UC Irvine.
WF2 overall has a record of 11-11 in the tournaments, with the subcategory Asterisk Spot at 1-4.
WF2 says Stephen Austin should be the favorite today which puts me on Tulsa.
All three games are televised, so if you’re a masochist and enjoy watching Kid’s Ball you can get your kicks by tuning into ESPNU.
I wanted to include the ATS records for Wyoming, UNLV, and Stephen Austin when they were in the role of a Dog, and Wichita State, UC Irvine, and Tulsa when they were listed as the Fav, but I checked three different sites and all three had different records.
Unreliable information, so I won’t use it.
No matter, regardless what the numbers would have been, I’m relying on my handicapping methods tonight.
My plays:
Wichita State -6 1/2
Tulsa – 7 1/2
UC Irvine -2 1/2
Recap 1-0
Record 9-9
Review:
Let’s play I gave out was back on March 12th when I took Rhode Island/Duquesne Under 135 1/2.
They combined for 128 getting my record back to .500 for the season and putting me in position to finish with a profit if I can do well in the tournaments.
