RBD mixes college basketball betting analysis with a full rant, breaking down Rhode Island vs. Duquesne through his totals models and tournament handicapping angles.
Yesterday was one of those days where I swore I would never bet on another college basketball game again (see the review section below.) But my disgust has subsided and I’ll give it another shot today.
Short analysis because it’s an early start and I want to get this submitted in time to try and get it up on the homepage.
Both my models for totals say the Rhode Island/Duquesne game goes Over today.
T1 Ov is 7-11, a 61% Fade.
T2 Ov is 9-14, a 60% Fade.
And when I have a match in the tournaments the record is 0-2 on Overs, a 100% Fade.
Yeah, not a lot of data but I’ll see if I can jump on a streak here before it gets established.
Four of Rhode Island’s last five games have stayed Under.
And four of their last five games have stayed Under the number on today’s game.
Three of Duquesne’s last five games have gone Under.
But three of their last five have gone Over today’s number.
My play:
RI/Duquesne Un 135′
Recap
0-1
Record
8-9
Review
I stopped handicapping and betting on college basketball back in January. I wasn’t doing poorly at 7-8, I was just fed up watching the sport I called “Kid’s Ball” though a more apt title would be “Idiot’s Ball.”
A few days ago I jumped back in, bet a game and won, but it wasn’t televised so I didn’t watch it. I played a second game yesterday (gave it out as a forum pick) and it was televised. And it only took that one game for me to go back to thinking, “I will never bet this crooked, ugly sport again.”
With only a minute and change left in the game the Bearcats (-2′) were up by six points and had possession. All they had to do was get fouled a couple of times, hit some free throws, and I would bank a unit.
They inbound the ball.
Turnover.
UCF scores and it’s a four point lead.
Cincy has possession, but they can’t get the ball over the half court line in time; another turnover.
UCF scores and it’s a two-point lead.
Good time for the Bearcats coach to use one of his timeouts, right?
Nah, better to save them and bring them into the locker room where they’re useless.
Cincy turns the ball over AGAIN.
THIRD TIME in a ROW!
UCF scores, tie game.
But there’s still hope for my bet if they hit a three on the final possession of the game.
The Bearcats have the ball.
Shot clock turned off.
They hold for the last shot.
There are only two possibilities, right?
They shoot and miss and the game goes into OT, or they shoot, score, and win the game.
Wrong.
There is a third possibility.
They do the play I hate most in basketball. Instead of doing the smart thing, driving to the basket and either making it or getting fouled for free throws to win the game, they stand at the top of the key, dribble out the ball and force a bad shot the last second.
But the Bearcats couldn’t even do that.
The game clock runs out and they don’t even get a shot off.
Tie score, game clock turned off and they don’t even get a shot off!
I changed the channel. I didn’t need to watch anymore, I know what’s going to happen.
I read an article recently where some organization (the NCAA?) pleaded with sports bettors to stop going into the social media accounts of players and coaches and attacking them for losing games.
Screw that.
The Cincy coach and players deserve every verbal poison dart that comes their way after that pitiful performance.
It’s the reason sports betters scream, “FIX!” They can’t believe that players could perform that poorly, that idiotically.
But I don’t think “fix.” When it comes to “student” athletes I believe in idiots.
Bearcats?
No. More like Soft Kitties.
And I sense a revenge bet somewhere in my near future.
