Saint Louis enters tonight’s A-10 clash ranking top-10 in scoring offense, but their prediction hinges on a defense that leads the nation in opponent eFG%. With St. Bonaventure struggling at 1-5 in league play, the Billikens look to maintain their undefeated conference record in a hostile environment.
The Setup: Saint Louis at St. Bonaventure
Saint Louis is laying 8.5 points on the road at St. Bonaventure, and the market’s telling you something important here. The Billikens roll into Reilly Center at 8-1 with one of the most efficient offenses in college basketball, while the Bonnies have dropped four of their last five and look nothing like the team that started 9-1. According to collegebasketballdata.com, the adjusted efficiency gap is massive—Saint Louis sits at #22 nationally with a +18.9 net rating, while St. Bonaventure checks in at #105 with just a +6.8 mark. That’s not a minor difference. That’s the gap between a legitimate NCAA Tournament team and a middle-of-the-pack A-10 squad trying to figure things out. The Billikens are pushing tempo at 74.8 possessions per game (#17 nationally), and they’re doing it with elite shooting efficiency. When you’ve got that kind of offensive firepower meeting a Bonnies defense that ranks just #102 in adjusted defensive efficiency, 8.5 points starts looking reasonable.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: Saint Louis @ St. Bonaventure
Date: January 23, 2026
Time: 5:30 PM ET
Location: Reilly Center, Saint Bonaventure, NY
Point Spread: Saint Louis -8.5
Over/Under: 157.5-158.5
Saint Louis Record: 8-1
St. Bonaventure Record: 9-1
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
Let’s talk about why the market landed on 8.5, because this isn’t some random number pulled from thin air. Saint Louis ranks #39 in adjusted offensive efficiency at 117.2, while St. Bonaventure sits at #119 with a 110.9 mark. That’s a seven-point gap in offensive capability when you adjust for competition. On the defensive side, the Billikens hold a significant edge at #29 (98.2) compared to the Bonnies at #102 (104.1). When you factor in the tempo differential—Saint Louis at 74.8 possessions (#17) versus St. Bonaventure’s crawling 67.2 pace (#231)—you’re looking at a game that should settle somewhere in the mid-150s for total possessions. The efficiency math suggests Saint Louis should win by double digits in a neutral environment, so getting 8.5 on the road actually gives St. Bonaventure a couple points of home court credit.
The total sitting between 157.5 and 158.5 makes perfect sense when you run the numbers. Saint Louis averages 91.6 points per game (#13 nationally) but against much faster tempo. St. Bonaventure’s going to slow this thing down, which should keep the total manageable. The Bonnies average just 75.9 points (#219), and their recent form suggests they’re struggling to score consistently. Four losses in five games, including an 89-80 shootout with Richmond that exposed their defensive limitations. The market’s pricing in St. Bonaventure’s pace control but also acknowledging the Billikens’ elite offensive efficiency.
Saint Louis Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
The Billikens are absolutely humming right now. That 91.6 points per game isn’t empty calories—they’re shooting 50.7% from the field (#28 nationally) and posting a ridiculous 63.1% true shooting percentage (#14). They’ve got five guys averaging double figures, led by Robbie Avila’s 12.4 points and 3.4 assists from the center position. That kind of balance makes them impossible to game plan against. Dion Brown adds 12.4 points and 6.7 boards, while Trey Green provides another 12.3 points of scoring punch.
What really stands out is the defensive efficiency. Saint Louis ranks #27 in defensive rating at 92.9, holding opponents to just 37.2% shooting (#12 nationally) and 28.1% from three (#34). They’re elite at taking away easy looks, and when you combine that with their ability to push tempo, they create separation quickly. The 122.6 offensive rating (#58) tells you they’re converting possessions at an elite level, even if the raw efficiency numbers don’t jump off the page. Five straight wins, including road victories at VCU and Duquesne, prove this team knows how to win in hostile environments.
St. Bonaventure Breakdown: The Counterpoint
St. Bonaventure’s 9-1 record is deceiving when you dig into the recent results. Four losses in their last five games, and three of those came at home or in conference play. The Bonnies are built around Frank Mitchell’s double-double production—14.9 points and 10.6 rebounds per game (#13 nationally in rebounding). Darryl Simmons II leads the scoring at 15.1 points, but he’s not a high-volume creator, averaging just 3.1 assists. Cayden Charles chips in 11.4 points and 6.1 boards, giving them some two-way versatility.
The problem is the offensive efficiency. St. Bonaventure ranks #155 in offensive rating at 112.9, and their 75.9 points per game (#219) reflects a team that grinds possessions without elite shot creation. They shoot 47.5% from the field (#93) and 37.6% from three (#43), which is solid but not spectacular. The real issue is the pace—67.2 possessions per game (#231) means they’re trying to win ugly, low-possession games. That works when your defense is elite, but ranking #102 in adjusted defensive efficiency isn’t going to cut it against a team like Saint Louis that can score in multiple ways.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game comes down to tempo control and whether St. Bonaventure can force Saint Louis into their preferred pace. The Billikens want to run at 74.8 possessions, while the Bonnies need this thing in the mid-60s to have a chance. Saint Louis ranks #17 nationally in pace, and they’ve shown all season they can score efficiently in transition—185 fast break points already this season. St. Bonaventure’s 127 fast break points tell you they’re not built to run with teams.
The rebounding battle matters here. St. Bonaventure posts a 34.9% offensive rebounding rate (#59), which is legitimately good and could create second-chance opportunities. Saint Louis sits at just 28.1% (#292), which is a potential vulnerability. Frank Mitchell’s 10.6 boards per game give the Bonnies a chance to extend possessions and keep this game in the 60s. But here’s the thing—Saint Louis is so efficient from the field (58.4% effective FG%, #25 nationally) that they don’t need offensive rebounds to score.
The turnover differential could swing this. Saint Louis coughs it up 14.2 times per game (#311), which is genuinely poor. St. Bonaventure averages 8.5 steals (#76) and could create some transition opportunities off live-ball turnovers. But the Billikens’ defensive pressure (7.9 steals per game, #118) and their ability to force 12.4 turnovers from opponents suggests they’ll create their own chaos. When Saint Louis gets stops and runs, St. Bonaventure simply doesn’t have the athletes to keep up.
Bash’s Best Bet
I’m laying the 8.5 points with Saint Louis. The efficiency gap is too large to ignore, and St. Bonaventure’s recent form suggests they’re not the team that started 9-1. Four losses in five games isn’t a blip—it’s a trend. The Billikens are playing elite basketball on both ends, ranking #39 in adjusted offensive efficiency and #29 in adjusted defensive efficiency. They’ve won five straight, including tough road games, and they match up perfectly against a St. Bonaventure team that wants to slow the game down but doesn’t have the defensive chops to execute that game plan.
The pace differential actually favors Saint Louis here. Even if the Bonnies slow this to 68 possessions, the Billikens’ offensive efficiency suggests they’ll score 80-plus. St. Bonaventure’s struggling to crack 75 points per game, and I don’t see how they suddenly find offensive rhythm against a defense that ranks #12 nationally in opponent field goal percentage. Give me Saint Louis by double digits in a game that finishes around 82-70. The 8.5 feels like a gift.
